Tommy Gold NBA 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

Golden State are always able to score. Even when they have almost all their players injured, they call players from the development team to play in the starting lineup. But even then, they are able to score a lot. The Warriors still have lots of players out, including Monta Ellis, one of their best scorers. But their kind of game is still the same, and the players that will play today can be less talented, but will make the job and score lots of points as well.

Lakers are without Kobe, but the team are playing a quicker game without him. The players that have entered the rotation when Kobe missed the games, are trying to take their chance to show that they are good enough. Today, they will face one of the worst defense in the league. As a team that can easely score, they will take this chance to show that they can be great scorers too, and will try to do a good performance to show that they also deserve more minutes. And as we all know, the offensive performance is the performance that most of the time people notice.

Pick: Over 216.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.17 first 2 picks:

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

After a great win yesterday at home, Pistons will play again today. It's a back to back game, however they are coming from 5 days off. They shouldn't be tired, but more important, they are with confidence and with the will to chance the path of the team. Pistons are the kind of team that starts every year with a minimum target, playoffs. However, they are disappointing the fans this year, with poor games and a 19-33 record. However, the team is not so bad as it seems, they still have good players, and despite their best players missed many games in the first part of the season, the team is all ok now. There is no excuses to keep the bad performances and fail to get a better record. Yesterday they entered the second part of the season with a great game, winning it by 23 points. So, they will arrive to this game thinking that they are able to make the difference in the remaining part of the season.

In other hand, Orlando will have 3 home games. After Detroit, they will have to handle with Mavs and Cavaliers. That's enough to approach this game with the minimum resources. Orlando is a good team unquestionable, and can get great wins, but is not the kind of team to win by many points, as they slowdown when they are leading with comfort. That's why it's hard to expect Orlando to enter todays game with all they got, as they probable think that this will be the easy game and they are already thinking in the next games. And Detroit can make a surprise, at least, they will try.

Pick: Detroit Pistons +11 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker



Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks

Yesterday, Knicks went to Chicago. The game ended with 203 points, but that's because Bulls were leading by many points, and in the fourth quarter, both teams slow down and quit the game, otherwise, the game would probably ended with 220 points or more.

The things that made me going in the over yesterday, still available for today matchup. Players are not tired as they rested almost a week. Nate Robinson could return today.

So, both teams learned yesterday some thing about each other. Knicks will have to use it today, as they will probably try to get their revenge after the big loss yesterday. The biggest difference in the game, was the accuracy. With only 30% of shots right, Knicks will have to improve it a lot today, and at home, that seems really easy to them. However, their defense shouldn't be able to stop Bulls, at least, to make the difference. They had shoot yesterday 60%! Bulls probably learned the lesson, and will know today how to score. They will probably keep more than 50% of accuracy today.

Knicks will make a fast game. They know that right now, they are not better shooters, but they can shoot more. Bulls learned yesterday how to handle Knicks. The trick is not try to make a good defense, is only shoot better.

Pick: Over 201.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker


*One unit each always.




NBA 2010.02.16 results:

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers: Over 190.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (78-105: LOSS)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons: Under 198 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (108-85: WIN)
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (99-86: LOSS)

New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls: Chicago Bulls -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (118-85: WIN)
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls: Over 198 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (118-85: WIN)
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers: Over 216.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (104-94: LOSS)

NBA 2010.02.16 finished 3-3 and -0.27 units lost/6 units risked on HDP & OU.
NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 231-169-6, +41.25 units won (400 units risked)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-49, +6.31 units won (84 units risked)
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Dallas Mavericks ML +180 (2.80) The Greek (99-86: LOSS)
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis Grizzlies ML -103 (1.97) 5Dimes (95-109: LOSS)

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.17 another pick:

Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Houston will go to Milwaukee to a matchup against against a good defensive team. Despite the 12-14 record on road that Rockets got, they are not a good road team. They have managed to get 12 wins on road, but this number will probably have a small increase for the rest of the season. This team seems a good defensive team, however, their kind of game is usually to fast to make a good defensive work. On road, their defense sucks, and when they face teams that defend and don't let Houston play fast, they struggle.

Bucks are one of that kind of teams that makes the season in their home games and an ocasional surprises. At home, they got the edge in the paint with Bogut and a rookie that is shinning a lot and making the diference, Jennings. They can score a lot, play a fast game, but they are smart enough and know that their edge is on their defense. Against houston, that's all they need to get a confortable win.

Pick:Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.17 another pick:

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Hornets

Utah are 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games on ATS. They were playing really well before the break, and showed yesterday that they still reaming with their "momentum". They are strong in every positions, with Deron, Boozer and Okur.

New Orleans are without CP3, and the true is that is a big loss to the team. They could hold a little bit after the all star break, winning some games, however, they will return today to action, after 7 days off. To a team that will play more 2 or 3 weeks without their leader, it will be hard to show competitiveness in this first games.

Without CP3, the Hornets will not be able to discuss games against teams that are strong and have big mens, as Boozer, Okur and Millsap. Their athetism is a little bit soft, and they will not be able to control the gam in the paint against Utah. And they will not be able to defend Deron Willians as they should in order to discuss the game.

Pick: Utah Jazz -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.17 final 2 picks:

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Despite the break, GSW weren't able to treat their players from the extensive injured list. They played yesterday and they seems with lack of confidence and rhythm. In their last games, they lost 9 straight games, and ended the first part of the season with a win. That should give them confidence and the strength to look forward in the second part of the season. The team can play a fast game, but they can't defend but that's not their main problem at this point. They have players from the minors playing lot's of minutes, few players of their initial roster at day 1 is playing right now.

Kings are being so far a nice surprise for me. With two rookies making the difference, Kevin Martin have more space, and the team is well equalized and playing very well. Yesterday, they were almost able to win to Boston, but they couldn't hold the lead in the final part. I think that they are able to approach this second part of the season with a positive perspective, and forget the last month before the break, where they sucked a lot.

Today, Kings are a team more organized and with more confidence. They are able to play pretty well in a fast pace, and make the difference today defending when they have to.

Picks: Sacramento Kings +4.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Sacramento Kings ML +170 (2.70) The Greek

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

Today is the last day to close the transfers window and as you might noticed, there are several regular players being benched in the last 2 days (and seeing little game time in the process), which screws any analysis of the game, so I might not have a play for tonight.



NBA 2010.02.17 results:

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic: Detroit Pistons +11 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (116-91: LOSS)
Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks: Over 201.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (109-115: WIN)
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (99-127: LOSS)
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Hornets: Utah Jazz -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (90-98: WIN)
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors: Sacramento Kings +4.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (130-98: LOSS)

NBA 2010.02.17 finished 2-3 and -1.18 units lost/5 units risked on HDP & OU.
NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 233-172-6, +40.07 units won (405 units risked)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-50, +5.31 units won (85 units risked)
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors: Sacramento Kings ML +170 (2.70) The Greek (130-98: LOSS)

[TommyGold]

NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 233-172-6, +40.07 units won (405 units risked)
NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-50, +5.31 units won (85 units risked)



NBA 2010.02.19 final 8 picks:

Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards: Denver Nuggets -5.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers: San Antonio Spurs -3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons: Detroit Pistons ML -105 (1.95) The Greek

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons: Under 189 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets: Over 198.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns: Over 212.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors: Utah Jazz -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards

Denver is coming from a big win, giving an upset defeat to Lebron in his home. Carmelo accepted the challenge that LeBron launch to him, and was the winner. Today the team is probably confident, and we still can despise a little bit the back to back factor, as they are coming from the break and played yesterday their first game in 7 days.

Denver is one of the brilliant teams, as Billups seems more inteligent that ever. With Carmelo returning after almost one month out, and scoring 40 points in Cleveland, this team will attack this second part of the season to show that they can be a contenders fro those that still give them no value.

They will face today the biggest winner in the trade contest, trading all their biggest players after the loss of Arenas "to the gangs". So, we can expect a good team today from Wizards, as they are building a new team. A really easy win to Denver is what I expect.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -5.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek



San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers

The biggest problem for Spurs this season, is that they are to old to play 4 games per week, sometimes, 2 games in 2 days. However, they can use the all star break to rest, and comebak with the best they can provide. After all, this is a team with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The talent is huge. They started well, despite some laziness in the last minutes, but they built a confortable lead during the game. They are strong in the paint and can stand up against the big frontcourt of Sixiers.

Sixiers started this second part of the season in the wrong way. Iverson was grumpy, Thadeus and Willians started in the bench, and the team achieved a big loss at home, against Miami. It seems that they already understood that the season is over for them, playoffs seems far.

Today, Spurs will have they can, they have to, as this is their best games, as they had a weak off to rest. Sixiers is the kind of team that easily quit during the game if they started to lose by many, and I expect them today to play under their abilities.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs -3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker



Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons

Bucks were among the positive surprises this year, leaded by the impressive rookie Jennings and with Bogut being the strength. However, they seems to slowing down their efforts, as they ended badly the first part of the season. The first game in the second part, was worst than the worst nightmare, as they get a defeat by 28 points t home. It seems that lost all their abilities, and will now make the season that everyone thought this summer. Jennings is losing is moment, and passing a bad time, and that have repercussions in the team instantly.

Detroit is going in the other path. They finnaly got all their players without injuries and ready to play. They have been so far one of the biggest dissapointing teams this year, as they were appointed as a strong contenders to playoffs. But the season went bad during the first part, and now it's time to recover. Two days ago, they went to Orlando, abel to hold Magics for 3 quarters, and entering the fourth with signs that they could make the life difficult. But suddenly they struggled and lost that quarter by 20 points and ended with any chances. However, tere were good signgs of a good rehab, and today I expect it to be effective.

November 9, Detroit went to Milwaukee and win 93-81. They know how to do it, and they should now be better. Their biggest weapon is their defense, and they will hold Bucks offensive easily. Bucks in other hand, will try to be good defenders in order to discusse the game. But they will not be able to score many points.

Picks: Detroit Pistons ML -105 (1.95) The Greek & Under 189 -110 (1.91) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies

Miami is one of thouse alarming teams. They can compete for the worst coach in NBA, they can play a horrible game, or they can give an upset to big teams. There are two keys for this team. If Wade plays well, the team can achieve any goal, and when there is a need of a coach, the team can't achieve any goal due to Spoelstra. Today, they will only have their worst, Spoelstra, as Wade is out this game. Without him, the team normally struggles, even with him they do it some times. Their strenght will be with O'neal and Beasley, but they can't have that edge against a team like Memphis.

Memphis is a strong team that were passing a bad moment, but went last game to Toronto win the game. They got and huge edge in the paint, with M. Gasol and Z. Randolph, as they are great rebounders and particullary good as well in the offense. But they are not the only thing this team have, but today, they will be key players to lead the team to a big win. The team is one of the most equalized teams in NBA, with Conley, Mayo e Gay supporting their frontcourt.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets

Toronto had some problems with their defense, but establish it during the first part of the season. However, it's hard to believe in their defense with Bosh out. The last time that happened, they suffered almost 150 points. The kind of game that Toronto plays when things are going in the difficult way, is a run and gun game, something that they are good. Even with Bosh out, Bargnani can fill that spot in the offense pretty well.

The Nets after playing against the Bobcats, have achieved a great win, then returned home and lost to Miami, with an overall score of 171 points. It's never easy to play against a team like Miami, that can "destroy" the show sometimes. At home, they are scoring few points, but isn't due to lack of talent, as they are able to score many points on road. They're getting difficulties at home, as the supporters are not happy with the team with be worst record on NBA.

However, after a loss by one point, they will give all they can today, specially when they know that Bosh is out and they have Lopez. Devin Harris, Lee an Jianlian are the kind players that will proudly accept the chanlege for a gun and run game, and this will be probably a high scoring game, as will not be Toronto to descrease their game and will be Nets to increase theirs.

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

What can we expect from an healthy Suns? Only a fast pace and a good accuracy. They are with a 6 straight games with unders, and that's why this line is so low, as I can't see Atlanta try to make a good defence and try to hold down a fast game.

With Crawford ok, he will be one of their biggest weapons, as he can score fast points. But Atlanta isn't defense, despite their good defensive game. On road they allow almost 98 points, and can play a game with a high rythm.

Against Suns, Atlanta will try to keep the pace, and with great scorers, they will easily win. And even thinking they are a good defense, it's to hard to acomplish a good defense in Phoenix, as Suns are able to overcame any defense, specially at home.

Pick: Over 212.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes



Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

Utah is 8-0-1 in last 9 road games and 14-3 overall in last 17. Their strengh and work has been amazing, as they are able to win games that they actually didn't played well.

The road isn't something that scares them, and even with Okur out today, the team have enough big mens to occupy the space in the paint. Behind the arc, they have fast players and great scorers as well, with Deron being the key of their game.

They will face today a team with no defense. The truth is that they play that game called "if I can score more, i "probably" could win". However, they are with many injuries, and it's really hard to this team achieve two straigh wins.

Jazz are really good facing teams that are breaked. Warriors are one of that kind, as they only play half the court. And even their roster is breaked, with some players playing the game, anothers sited for the 48 minutes.

Pick: Utah Jazz -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.20 first 2 picks:

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors: Toronto Raptors -6.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets: Over 208.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.21 first pick:

Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

Boston will play their fourth game after the break. They traded House and Giddeons for Nate Robinson, but he will miss today game. So, there will be lack of good Guards for rotation, something not good when you are playing your fourth road game in six days. Even thinking that Boston had improved their defense and won the last 3 games, there were some difficulties to win against Sacramento, won obly by 1 against a Lakers without Kobe, and then, had a massive win in Portland a against a debil an inconsistence team. So, they are not so good as it seems to be dogs only by 2 ball possessions against one of the hottest teams.

Denver had a ridiculous loss in Wizards, after a huge win in Cleveland. They are 23-5 at home, and with the upset they had last game, they will not make easy todays game against Celtics. They know that they are in a better shape offensively, and at home, even the best defense have problems do defend them. With Anderson back tonight, the frontcourt of the Nuggets will have enough power to face the powerfull frontcourt that Celtics have. They should won this contest confortable.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.21 more 3 picks:

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Jersey Nets

Somehow, the Nets seems unable to score more than 90 points at home. They are worst at hoem than on road, where they can aliviate the tension that supporters give them. Isn't easy to bet the team with the worst record, specially when the team is breaking some bad records. With Jianlian out, only Brook Lopez will be able to try stop the great frontcourt that Memphis have.

Memphis can score very easily, and will have to take today opportunitie to turn things, as they are not in a good moment. With Randolph and Gasol making this team being the best team scoring in the paint, and well supported by the players behind the line, will not be this team to hold them.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker



Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets

Houston made important trades, and if we think that T-mac weren't helping the team in the last months, were positive trades, as they lost an important player like Landry, but he have enough players to compensate, and won a all star player ang big scorer with Kevin Martin. Yesterday, and after they were leading by more than 10 points at half time, they lost the game. The team needs time to sync, and the first match is always hard, and they payed that proce high because they were playing against a run and gun team.

It's true that without Ming, they are a little bit soft in the paint, but they can a faster game, and will get more accuracy with K. Martin playing. Hornets are without CP3, the key of their win against Houston at home 21 days ago by 4 points. Despite they have big players, they are a little bit soft to. The team it's more lazy than Rockets, and today Rockets will dominate easily this game, as they have the edge behind the arc, and can be a little bit better in defense as well.

Pick: Houston Rockets ML +115 (2.15) The Greek



Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors

In January Warriors won at home to Atlanta with 223 overall points scored. In December, Atlanta won at home against Warriors and 214 points were scored. Atlanta knows that on road their defense is not so strong as at home and needs to improve their offense. They have the abilitie to do it, as they have great scorers that can play a fast game, and the ex-Warriors Crawford is a bench player that keeps a high pace. They just need to score around 45%, that is their average on road, to score more than 110 against a team that makes no defense, as they can score easily for any position.

The Warriors will have Monta back tonight and will impose their fast game. They weren't able to score lot's of points lately, as they had faced teams that forced the game to a low pace and with many mistakes for Warriors. But they were playing with several D-league players, and had lack of their "true" players. But with Monta Ellis back, the team gain a big reinforcement in scoring matter. With him back, and knowing that Atlanta easily enter and let them play their game, we can expect a huge scoring game, as there is no doubt that Atlanta will score many points, and Warriors will be able to score enough, as they will try to keep the game close.

Pick: Over 211.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.



Denver was leading by 82-73 in the end of the 3rd Qtr...
The Spurs were leading by 76-73 in the end of the 3rd Qtr...
The Nets only had to score a handful of points to cover the Over...
So, it's the second time this month I finish the day with a 2-7 on spreads and totals... :|



NBA 2010.02.19 results:

Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards: Denver Nuggets -5.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (107-97: LOSS)
San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers: San Antonio Spurs -3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (106-94: LOSS)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons: Under 189 -110 (1.91) The Greek (85-91: WIN)
Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets: Over 198.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (89-106: LOSS)

Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (87-100 2OT: LOSS)
Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns: Over 212.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (88-80: LOSS)
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors: Utah Jazz -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (89-100: WIN)

NBA 2010.02.19 finished 2-7 and -5.18 units lost/9 units risked on HDP & OU.
NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 235-179-6, +34.89 units won (414 units risked)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-51, +4.31 units won (86 units risked)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons: Detroit Pistons ML -105 (1.95) The Greek (85-91: LOSS)



Bloody Wizards...


NBA 2010.02.20 results:

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors: Toronto Raptors -6.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (109-104: LOSS)
Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets: Over 208.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (115-125: WIN)

NBA 2010.02.20 finished 1-1 and -0.09 units lost/2 units risked on HDP & OU.
NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 236-180-6, +34.80 units won (416 units risked)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-51, +4.31 units won (86 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NBA 2010.02.21 last 2 picks:

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

Blazers are passing big problems with injuries, and it seems that they are forcing Roy to return as soon as possible to try to invert the situation, as he his the franchise and best player. The team is showing some insconsitence, and bad results against the strongest and more balanced teams. Their defense are struggling lately and they acquired Camby to compensate Oden injury, but he still needs more time to get sync with his team.

Jazz are going fantastic, and as I said last game, they are able to win even without playing well. This year they have played already two games against Blazers, and were able to win confortable, even in Portland. Deron will have a hurt Roy defending him, and will be able to do whatever they can. Jazz can also defend well, with big and great players in the paint, and can make the game as easy as Celtics did that went to Porland win by 20 points two days ago. Blazer will try to defend as good as they can, but probably will not be enough.

Picks: Utah Jazz ML +105 (2.05) Bookmaker & Under 192.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

*One unit each always.