TrendSetter's NFL Week 13 Selections

[TrendSetter]

This NFL season hasn't been too good. I beleive it's because of the turn-around of teams. Bad to average teams last year putting on a clinic. Good teams last year having a boner of a season.

I start the season using last years record to create starting ratings. So, that means many of my starting ratings were way off. I adjust the ratings each week using final scores adjusted by turnovers. I input these ratings (along with adjusted scores and net yardage) into my computer system to come up with results. I then use surveys of different situations that give me the games to go with. So, I believe, because of the turn-around of teams it has taken a while to catch up. It happened 4 weeks ago.

My survey records for games to go with are:
Week 9: 7-2
Week 10: 8-4
Week 11: 7-1
Week 12: 4-2

Let's keep the winning going. Here's the plays for week 13:

Buffalo +3 over NY Jets - Rule 13: go against the computer or don't make sense play. Buffalo is at home.

St. Louis +9.5 over Chicago - Rule 11 and 14 - 11: Dudly PPY system within 5 points and agrees with my BCS type system. 14: Go with a small win away underdog - I have St. Louis winning 23-21. Dudly has Chicago 18.5-18.

New Orleans -9.5 over Washington - Rule 2 and 8: Both on-going rules that say don't go against them unless another rule goes for opposing team. My systems has NO winning 27-17. Dudly YPP has NO 32-14.5

Atlanta +5.5 over Philadelphia - Rule 11. My system: Phil 24-23. Dudly: Phil 25-23. Atlanta is at home.

Kansas City +5 over Denver - Rule 11. My system: Denver 22.5-20.5. Dudly: Denver 24-21. Kansas City is at home.

Tampa Bay +6.5 over Carolina - Rule 11. My system: Caro 24-23. Dudly: Caro 25-23.

Cleveland +13 over San Diego - Rule 13. Cleveland is at home.

San Francisco pk over Seattle - Rule 14. My system: SF 24-19.5. Dudly: SF 33-21.

Dallas -1 over the NY Giants - Rule 14. My system: Dallas 23-14.5. Dudly: Dallas 19.5-13.5.

Arizona +4 over Minnesota - Rule 13. Arizona is at home.

[dragon1952]

Good job lately! That Buffalo/NYJ game is actually at Toronto, CAN., though.

[TrendSetter]

Thanks.

Well, rule 13 is about each team due to go in opposite directions. One team has been winning with turn-overs, punt/kick returns, etc. while the other team has been losing by the same. I learned this in 1996 when all of a sudden my picks started losing. Did a survey of those losing games (using '92 thru '96 seasons). The survey showed 69% to go against the computer.

[TrendSetter]

Here are Rule 13 plays for the past 4 weeks:

Week 9
Seattle -9.5 over Detroit (W 32-20) - Rule 13 for the home team says to keep going with the team winning with turn-overs, punt/kick returns, etc.

Week 10
Tennesee -6.5 over Buffalo (W 41-17) - Rule 13 for the home team.
Minnesota -16.5 over Detroit (W 27-10) - Rule 13 for the home team. No play because had some rules going for Detroit.
St. Louis +13.5 over New Orleans (W 23-28). No play because NO had a rule for them. Then no play.
Cleveland +11 over Baltimore (L 0-16)

Week 11
Kansas City +8.5 over Pittsburgh (W 27-24)
Minnesota -11 over Seattle (W 35-9). Rule 13 for the home team. No play as Seattle had a rule for them.
St. Louis +8.5 over Arizona (W 13-21)
Oakland +10 over Cincinnati (W 20-17). No play as Cincinnati had a rule for them.

Week 12
Detroit +11 over Green Bay (L 12-34)
Dallas -13.5 over Oakland (W 24-7). Rule 13 for the home team. No play as Oakland had some rules going for them.
Buffalo +3 over Miami (W 31-14)
Chicago -14 over Cleveland (L 16-7). Rule 13 for the home team. No play as Cleveland had some rules going for them.
San Diego -13.5 over Kansas City (W 43-14). Rule 13 for the home team. No play as KC had some rules going for them.

[woodee12]

Rule number 34...Go against Woodee's picks.

I like the Bears so your pick is solid on STL!

[dragon1952]

As much as the Bears suck, they have handled the bottom feeders quite well, beating Detroit and Cleveland by 24 pts each.