Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 02/08

[RickJ]

Sunday we won our nhl lean with Boston +105. Boston had an easy time of it winning 3-0.

Today 1 overnight:

720 Elon +7.5

This morning its +7 at most books.

Nothing much else I can see but as always will update my blog and twitter if anything else develops. Also will post overnights around 7 pm pst.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

updated record

ncaa bb 09-10
Totals:
5-7

Sides
-1 to +1 games
11-7
Dogs +7 or greater
19-9-1
Favorites up to -6.5
27-19-1
favorites -7 or better
26-12-1
Total sides:
83-47-3 63.84%

NHL 09-10
Plays 4-7 -2.05
Leans 22- 11 +15.10

Nba 09-10
Plays 2-1
Leans 1-1

[RickJ]

tues ncaa baskets

Monday we won with Elon +7.5 Elon was up by around 17 at the half but with 10 min left in the game the score was close to even....but Elon went on to win the game. The cover was never in doubt.

Today 2 overnights:

524 Wisconsin -8.5
546 Bradley Pick

The lines this morning are Wisc -9 and Bradley +1 At most books.

Not much else I can see yet today.

As always I will update my blog and twitter if anything else develops and will post overnights around 7pm pst.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[The Boys]

Great work RickJ.........I've been following you.

[RickJ]

wedn ncaa baskets

An 0-2 Day yesterday Wisconsin lost the game as a 8.5 pt favorite. Except for the 1st few min of the game when they lead by 10 they never even got close to covering. Bradley pick could of gone either way. Bradley was ahead most of the game but the game narrowed and they lost by 1. If you were fortunate enough to have gotten +1 or +1.5 you got a tie or a win. Since I usually bet the overnights it was a loss for me.

Its a rare day today and nothing I can see despite a big slate in college baskets.

I did receive the following email that I think is worth sharing:

"In your experience, is it better to bet the overnights early or wait to closer to tip-off?"

My response:

"I prefer wagering on the overnights but only for ncaa baskets. In the other sports I am almost exclusively a dog bettor combined with taking public sentiment into consideration. So on the other sports usually the longer you wait the better.

In baskets I like to do my analysis 4 times. 1. Overnight 2. when I get up around 5 am. 3. around 8:30 am after the 8 to 8:30 steam comes in and if I get home early enough from the Bellagio around 3:45 pm again after the late steam.

There are betting syndicates that place there wagers usually around those times and that is why you see the line jumps twice a day...both within a 30 min time frame.

I like to fade the steam if it places the line within my play parameters for the game.

I hope that answers your question."

As always I will update my blog and twitter if anything develops throughout the day along with the overnights around 7 pm pst.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[woodee12]

Thanks for the info.

I have been jumping on some over-night lines myself lately, and I think it has gottten me a couple extra wins this yeat so far.

I kind of look at it, and figure out what way the line will move. If I think it is going to move away from my favor, i usually play it early.

An example is one I did not, play last night, Mizzou -13 over Iowa State. Now it is -14.5 and I really don't like it as much.

GL and like reading your insight here and on your blog!

[RickJ]

Thurs ncaa baskets

No plays on Wedn and we have 2 overnights:

562 Col Of Charleston -12.5
563 Murray St -11.5

Col of Charleston is -12 and Murray st is -12.5 at most books this morning. I wouldn't lay more then the 11.5 on Murray st.

Nothing else I can see today so far.

Nothing in the nhl or nba today.

As always I will update my blog and twitter if anything new develops along with the overnight around 7pm pst.

Good Luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

another ncaa bb pick

530 Middle tn st -4.5

Rickj

[RickJ]

Friday ncaa baskets

Thurs we went 2-1 in ncaa baskets.

Murray St was an easy win as they won by 32 as a 11.5 pt favorite. Middle Tn St
pulled away from a close game at the end to win by 7 as a 4.5 pt favorite but
College of Charleston never came close to covering 12.5 in the 2nd half..only
winning by 3.

Today there are 2 games that were overnights and nothing else so far.

811 Siena -3.5
813 Fairfield +1

The line this morning is Siena -4.5 and Fairfield Pick. I would still bet both those numbers but would not lay more then the 4.5 or pick that is available now.

As always I will update my blog and twitter with any new developments. And with
over 100 games tomorrow should be a number of overnights which will be posted around
7pm pst.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

going flat on Fairfield

Ran the numbers after the steam this morning and am going flat on Fairfield by wagering the same amount on 814 rider +1

This doesnt happen often. Maybe 4 or 5 times all season.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

an informative email

I just received this email:

"Hello Rick,
I've been following your picks and appreciate your insight. Trying to follow your logic as to why you get off games in the morning that you previously picked the night before. For example, Thursday night your system picked Fairfield +1. Friday morning the line went to -1 and you state, "ran the numbers after the steam this morning and am going flat on Fairfield...." I would think that you're getting all the best of it. It would be funny if your pick influenced the line from your followers causing you to get off your own bet. I enjoy reading your articles. Thanks. "

My response:

Needless to say you are not the first that have asked me that. The best I can explain it is my analysis combines many variables that are all interrelated. When 1 variable changes often times the interrelationship changes that negates the play. This occurs infrequently and I know when it does its disconcerting and also a pain. But....nothing is easy about handicapping. My last 3 that were negated by changes in the line all would of been losers. So much better to lose the juice.

Now....logically it could be argued it would better to be in a side and pay juice on a no pick play then to lay juice on both sides to get flat. And it would be hard to argue with that..but my preference is to get flat...and maybe once a year hit a middle to pay for the juice...which we did about a month ago.

My analysis is not simply coming looking at a line of 4 and saying it should be 7. It looking at variables in relationship with each other and coming up hopefully a positive ev play.

As far as my pick having an influence in the line....in the short run it does....but if such a small move in the number causes the analysis to throw out the play....then its probably not a very good play to begin with.

These moves actually in my judgment gives me the opportunity to see how strong the play is. I dont have time to play with the numbers on each game...so the lines moves are the only way I know of to validate plays.

I hope that explains it and your not more confused then I am...and thanks for the email.

Rick

[RickJ]

Sat ncaa baskets

We lost with siena on Friday. They really never had a chance getting blown out by Niagara in the 2nd Half and losing by double digits.

Today there are 3 games all posted overnight:

503 Delaware +13.5
563 Nebraska +15
581 Virg comm -10.5

Delaware is +12.5, Nebraska +14 and Virg Comm -11 this morning.

The only one I would still take this morning is VC -11 , Nebraska would have to be +14.5 or better...and Delaware +13.5 or better.

As Always I will post any updates on my blog and twitter if anything develops along with the overnights around 7pm pst.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

another ncaa bb pick

567 Texas A&M +1

Rick

[RickJ]

Sunday ncaa baskets

Saturday we went 2-2 Our big dogs split, our big favorite never had a chance and our -1 to +1 game won.

Today there is nothing from last night and nothing this morning.

So a rare day today with no plays.

As always if anything develops I will update my blog and twitter.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

an informative email

I received the following email:

"Good Morning Rick,

1st I would like to say thank you for sending out/sharing these plays free of charge. It might be a lot to ask, but often when you send them out overnight and only CRIS is open, then 1 person will bet it, and CRIS will move the line and then later in the evening when Greek opens, they copy CRIS's line, then all the other shops do the same, the next morning. So 1 person gets to bet your plays.

If you could wait until 9am PST, then there are 10 shops open (with full limits, not 1/2-overnight limits) and then most of us could get the plays.

I would be willing to even pay you to do that, as it is tough to get 4-5K when CRIS has now chopped there overnight limits from 2500 to 1500 just this past week.

Food for thought, and again, I know beggars cant be chosers, but it would help more folks to actually get your number. I will be in town in the next 3-4 weeks and will stop by Bellagio and say hello, and maybe get a cup of coffee and perhaps discuss the upcoming seasons.

Thanks for listening to my rantings.

Best of Luck,"

My response:

I really hadnt considered that...so if it works.....I will wait until until after Pinnicle posts there numbers...by that time should be at least 5 books open...9 is a bit too late to take advantage of the numbers....but if more people request it..i will reconsider.

As far as paying me......I do this only as a hobby....its fun and a great mental exercise for me to attempt each day to find games I feel have a chance to beat the spread. If I were 100% confident in these picks to produce positive results(which im not) and intended on putting this my top priority then maybe......but playing poker takes priority so again wouldnt be fair to charge. I wish to keep this fun and not work!

Hope this answers your email..and thanks for taking the time to write

Rick