Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 05/24

[RickJ]

Nothing the last few days but today we have a play and a lean in mlb

lean:

917 - J Peavy
918 CLE - M Talbot +120

Play:
929 - J Verlander
930 SEA - D Fiste +115

Mlb 10-11

May
play: 5-1 +5.53
Leans: 6-0 +7.57

April
plays: 1-6 -4.92
Leans: 7-7 +2.30

Total:
plays 6-7 +0.50
leans 13-7 +9.87

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

a 3rd mlb play for Tues

913 - A Wainwright
914 SDG - J Garland +122

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Wedn mlb lean

We went 3-0 on Tues winning our 2 plays and our 1 lean for a +3.57 Day.

Today only one lean that I can see:

963 - J Garcia
964 SDG - K Correi +107

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Thurs mlb lean

It took 13 innings yesterday but we won our lean on sd for a +1.07 day.

As all of you can see variance is something everyone should respect....you never
know when it will strike...and its a nice surprise to see it on the upside

One lean for today in mlb:

917 - G Gonzalez
918 BAL - B Bergesen +115

Good Luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Friday mlb play

It was looking like a win on Thurs with baltimore ahead 5-2 going into the top of the 8th. But then a miserable inning including a costly 2 out error and Oakland scored 5 and won 7-5.

Today 1 play in mlb:

951 - C Carpenter
952 CUB - R Wells +120

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

saturday

We lost our play on the cubs Friday. They fell behind by 5 in the first and never were a threat to win the game.

Only 1 home dog today...and its not even close to a lean or a play despite that the public is pretty heavy on Phil.

So a pass today.

Swing Trades:

We are out of both our swing trades this week. Teva was a push we exited at the same price we purchased the stock at...and wfc ended in a 2.4 percent loss.

An email:

"Great blog, long time follower.

I posted a comment a couple weeks ago regarding future market direction, EW theory, etc.

A suggestion: Why not hedge your reversion to the mean strategy with spy? e.g. long xyz, short spy
Or to be even more market/sector neutral, you could even hedge with sector etf's. It "seems" like it would be even safer to use a bit of leverage, although black swans of course happen."

My Response:

I am not sure what the point of hedging with an opposite position in the spy is. If you wish to reduce your exposure you can simply lower the amount of your swing trade when you initially put it on.

I have heard of fund managers hedging with opposite positions in futures for a short time when they feel the market is vulnerable...but have not heard of heading a 3 or 4 day trade. I feel it would be counterproductive.

I went back and checked to verify what historically the returns are on these swing trades and its 1.7%. That would be your expected ev over the long haul per trade.

However the studies are based on a universe of stocks that are much bigger then what I use. And I would think my returns would overall be a bit better. But that is just my feeling since I have made only around 20 trades to date.

Good Luck Today

Rickj
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Sunday

Nothing yesterday and nothing yet today. Only 1 home dog today where the public is heavy on the favorite and that is the cubs.......its close to a lean.....and almost 3 hours before game time...so things could swing it into a pick.

I will keep an eye on it..and if things change I will post as it becomes clear.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter:rickjsportplays