Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 06/07

[RickJ]

Sunday was a 1-4 day or -2.85 units. Our only winner was Kansas City...although all but Texas were close.

Today 1 lean in mlb:

967 - C Silva
968 PIT - D Eveland +138

I got +144

An email:

"When I wager on matchbook, I'm mostly on underdogs, like you seem to be. Do you see the markets on baseball sides going against you leading up to gametime? "

My response:

Typically what I see when I post these picks are the line moves with my picks initially but then later in the day tends to move back to the original line or even further. similar to the way college basketball went this year but not as dramatic. Remember these picks are contrary to what the public is doing so its reasonable to expect the bulk of the public will still be coming in to bet these before gametime. So if you cant get close to the number i post you more likely then not will get it before game time or better.

Mlb 10-11

June
Play 0-4 -4.00
Lean 4-4 +0.80

May
play: 7-2 +6.90
Leans: 8-1 +8.84

April
plays: 1-6 -4.92
Leans: 7-7 +2.30

Total:
plays 8-12 -2.13
leans 19-12 +11.94

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

tues

We lost our lean on pittsburgh Monday..they never were in the game with the cubs winning 6-1.

Today 5 home dogs and nothing even close to a lean or a play.

So after a few active days a break today.

An email:

"would you recommend playing the run line instead because it looks like a lot of your losses are decided by 1 run? "

My response:

I have never given any thought to run line betting. I am sure there is an analysis that could correlate money lines to run lines but I am not the person to ask. Perhaps someone else reading this could help out.

Good Luck Today

Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Wedn

Nothing on Tues and again nothing even close today to a lean or a play.

We have had a bit of a downswing this month and for the month am off 4.2 units.
Also I have started to receive some rude emails about how these picks are poor, along
with some disparaging comments.

Let me remind everyone that if a 4.2 unit downswing is troubling you then you probably shouldn't be betting since it would be nothing to encounter a 20 unit downswing and I expect it sooner or later.

Also Its probably time to remind everyone to reread the required reading section of my blog. It is needed to get a perspective on gambling and these picks. Here is the link:

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogs...-plays_19.html

I have been doing this for 5 years now so human nature as it is I encounter this every time things slow up. People are betting that really shouldn't be betting at all. If you don't have a perspective on variance, money management, and the psychological ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis you have 0 chance of success at this tough endeavor.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Thurs mlb lean and play

Nothing the last 2 days but today 1 play and 1 lean in mlb:

Play:

919 - J Lester
920 CLE - M Talbot +187

I got +191

Lean:

909 - T Hanson
910 ARI - D Willis +155

I got +160

There are 2 other games that could swing into picks and I will update if anything develops

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter:rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

another mlb play

905 B - R Dempster
906 MIL - D Bush +120

I got +124

RickJ

[RickJ]

Friday mlb lean

A wild day Thurs, one of the most exciting I can remember. We won Milwaukee in extra innings and just when it looked like arizona was out of it....a 3 run double tied it up...but then they went on to lose the game. But finally Cleveland falling behind 5-0 went ahead 6-5 into the 9th and gave up 2 runs falling behind 7-6. But then bases loaded 0 outs bottom of the 9th looked like a win for cleveland...but then 2 strikeouts...but finally a base hit and we won 8-7 for a +2.07 unit day.

Today 1 lean in mlb:

STL - J Garcia
952 ARI - R Lopez +130

I got +133

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

saturday

We lost our lean on Arizona Saturday. They had a few chances late but never connected with men on base the last two innings.

Today only 1 home dog. Right now its not a play or a lean....but things could change and I will be watching the variables today and will update if it swings into a pick. The game goes off at 5:30 pm pst.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

[RickJ]

Sat lean

San Diego +120

I got +127

Rick

[RickJ]

Sunday

We won our San Diego lean 7-1 but not without a scare in the top of the 8th. San diego was leading 3-1 but we had to survive bases loaded and 1 out.

Today 3 home dogs and none close to a lean or a play today.

I receive the following email last night:

Rick,

Your pick on San Diego didnt come out until about 15 min before game time. Can you get these out sooner?

My Response:

Usually my picks are posted first thing in the morning around this time. But on occasion the variables I look at are not clear in the morning and indicate thats its close enough to follow up until game time. This was the case with San Diego. I had all the variables in place with the exception of public sentiment.

On Sportsinsights it had to be under 30% on San Diego for me to make the game a lean. It hovered close to 30% all day reaching 32% and then settled at 29%. Which qualified it under my analysis as a lean.

This 30% is not a set in stone number but it depends on what my other variables are coming up with. On occasion under 40% will suffice and I can safely put the pick out first thing in the morning. This was just not the case with San Diego.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays