DINGERS NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND PICKS

[Dinger]

I developed my own system (Formula) for handicapping with zero bias on my part. Excell spread sheet capturing the last 14 games, weighted towards most recent to the further games played. Takes about 2 hours to calculate weekly and the formula includes points scored/against / rushing yardage / passing yardage (OFF/DEF Allowed); Turnovers; Missed FG's; Penelties; Time of Possession. Strength of Schedule is (Huge) in calculating my formula. I develop a power rating for each team. I also have a formula for the visiting/home team (Miles traveled, coming off a bye, back to back home or back to back road games).

I developed an injury formula but that takes 2+ hours to figure and a bias in the system to put a point value on a players injury...so I don't calculate at this time.

1* New Orleans -10.5 over Seatle
My system has the Saints -13...only 2.5 point difference then Vegas. Take the Saints!!

2* New York Jets +3 versus Indianoplis Colts
I have the NY Jets favored -1 in this game. Colts not dominating on the scoreboard or box score...rated not so high in my system. Jets win s/u.

2* (Top Pick) Kasas City Chiefs +2.5 against Baltimore Ravens.
Not a big fan of this pick. I have the Chiefs at -2.5 and a 5 point difference. Chiefs played a week schedule, but Ravens not very dominating the game/box scores. Chiefs hold serve at home.

2* Green Bay Packers +2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I have the Packers favored at -1.5. a difference of 4 points. Packers a little harder schedule. Packers come away with the upset.

Picking 3 dogs and 1 favorite.

[dogkatcher]

Nice work, Dinger

Maybe some capppers would share their opinions on the lines.
A consensus may be helpful.

My lines for the Wildcard games:
Saints -11
Jets -1
Ravens -4
Packers -2

Looks as if the Bookies have different ideas
then us this year.

Best of Luck, to all

[woodee12]

I am with you on all yours dinger except KC. Not sold on Cassle enough if they stop the RB's.

Saint by 14+
Jets win
Ravens win by 7.
Pack/Eagles...a toss up and a great game I think.


You should add some weight towards what the idiot bobble heads say too. I try to tune all those guys out as much as possible. Ditka may be the only guy who I might listen too but all those other guys have so much bias. They want to bend A Rodgers over I know with Vick being next in the choo choo train.

I have to did more into it but this is more overall first take which is usually right when it comes down to it.

I may waiver but hopefully everyone throws some thoughts up here to help formulate some plays.

I like to see how the betting % go on them too.

Back with more later.

[widestrides]

Feeling like a square but I like:

Saints -10. Maybe it will dip to -9.5? Doubt it. I've seen -10.5 already. Hasselback might play and make this more respectable. If it's Whitehurst it could be a shutout. Saints D will not be as accommodating as the Rams were. Damn, the Rams were just grabbing and holding onto guys, not hitting them. And Saints O will crush a very weak Seahawks D. Giants beat the Seahawks 41-7 in Seattle. KC beat them 42-24. If those Os can put up 40+, imagine what Brees will do. Saints won 34-19 earlier this year in New Orleans. So that gives Seahawks backers some hope for a cover.

Colts -2.5. Peyton has had good success against the Jets D and blitz in playoffs past, and without S Leonard, Peyton will find some holes. Just stay away from Revis. Of course, Indy's D is weak and Jets should be able to run. I'd crowd the line and make Sanchez throw. Over might be good, except Jets will try to run and ball control.

Ravens -2.5. KC was really trying to win vs Oakland and they got punked and crushed by a much more physical Raiders team. Cassel was lucky to survive. They were really beating on him. Blowing right through that KC OL. In come the very physical Ravens. I suppose a much more inspired Chiefs team shows up and Ravens never put anybody away. They just like to lean on them for 4 quarters. Ed Reed should be able to haul in at least one of Cassel's errant throws.

Packers +3! Eagles crash land will be complete. They haven't played well in 5 outta the last 6 weeks. Aaron Rodgers and his WRs will light up that Patterson CB and exploit the loss of MLB Bradley. Packers D playing lights out. Had Cutler on the run all day. Contained Brady pretty good also a couple weeks ago.

I'm predicting 3/4 wild cards advance. Yikes!