Dinger's NFL Picks Week 1

[Dinger]

I develop my own point spread and compare to Vegas. I use a system based on points, yardage, time of possesion, turnovers, strength of schedule. I don't pick my own games, strictly based on a number crunch. Based on last 4 years. Top Pick 55%; Top 5: 54%; Post Season: 63%; Super Bowl 3-1 75%; 5 Star Picks: 6-2 (75%).

I created an injury formula but takes 2 hours to compute (I don't use), so I just lay off games (top picks) with known injuries.

Caution: I start out slow as I use 2010 numbers to handicap 2011. The system hits stride weeks 8-15. Weeks 16-17 some teams rest players or non-playoff teams start to hang it up. Playoffs I have killed it in the past 4 years.

Top 5
4* Chi +3 (Pick of the Week)
4* GB -4
3* Cin +6.5
3* Oak +3
2* Pit +2.5

Best of Rest
Jak -3
Ind +7
Buf +6.5
Phl -4.5
CAR +7
TB -1.5
SF -5.5
NYJ -4
NE -7

[The Boys]

Good luck......nice to see you in "The Mock Hilton"

[WildCard]

Yo Dinger,

Read your post with interest.
I too use computer.
Apply weights to many stats, Total points, 1st Downs made, Rush stats, Pass stats, penalites,
Power ratings, Home field, P/S, Rankings, W/L record, YTD, Season to date, are just some of
the data bases I use.
One consensus (from a number of formulas) has a 72.8% 1st week since 1996.
Can generate formulas from 80% down to 60%.
Of course higher % = fewer picks.
72.8% had 115-41-6, worse yr 1998 = 5-6-0, best 2003 10-2-1 and 2010 10-1-2 against PS.

With your permission, I think it should (would) be advantageous if I run my computer and post lt's
picks in your thread.
Maybe picks better than 70% on those we agree on?

My keyboard ability is only supassed by my speling !
Therefore all must please overlook.

WildCard,
Little bit Left and Right of center

ps. STRONGLY AGREE ON GB

[Dinger]

Wildcard...very cool to compare the two systems. Maybe we can see common picks.

[WildCard]

TOP
GB -4
CHI +3
KC -5.5 **** #1 PICK
IND +9 Doesn't take Manning's situation into consideration
SEA +5.5
MIN +9
DAL +4


MIDDLE
PIT +2.5
TB -1.5
NYG -3
MIA +7
DEN -3

REST
StL +4.5
CIN +6.5
JAC -3
CAR +7

[Dinger]

I left 2 plays off.
Was +3
SD -8.5

Wild Strides I see we both like GB / Chi on the top. Everything else looks like we split on many picks.

[WildCard]

Decided to go with the following:

2 Units
GB
CHI
KC
PIT
TB
JAX
CAR

1 Unit
CIN
StL
MIN
NYG
SEA
DAL
MIA
DEN

[Dinger]

I'm intrigued how the 2 unit selections go. We need a third wheel system to break any tie-breakers or have super plays that are 3-0.

[Carpet]

Dinger help me with this chicago pick?

I know the bears are at home and Atlanta brings a pretty good defense against a new front offensive line protecting cutler the most sacked QB in football last year.

Watching the Bears pre-season Atlants should roll over the bears and I am a Bears fan, just wondering why you picling the bears?

[Dinger]

It looks like Atlanta last year dominated week opponents like playing the NFC West last year. This also goes for the Saints and the TB inflated record.
Bettors look at the record but don't focus in on the weaker opponents they play.

The Bears played a little stronger schedule. They are the home team getting points.

My system doesn't factor injuries, free agents, draft picks, offseason moves. So I'm basing on last years data....ugh

[Dinger]

Hey Wild, just for fun we wil use ESPN Accuscore system which simulates paying the game 10,000 times and determines avg score and win %. We will use this as a tie-breaker.

3-System Locked-IN
GB -4 (Win)
Ind +9
Pit +2.5
Chi +3
TB -1.5
Car +7

2 System Picks
Jak -3 (Ding/Wild)
Cin +6.5 (Ding/Wild)
KC -6.5 (Wild/ESPN)
Phl -4.5 (Ding/ESPN)
SF -5.5 (Ding/ESPN)
NYG -3 (Wild/ESPN)
SD -9 (Ding/ESPN)
Dal +4 (Wild/ESPN)
NE -7 (Ding / ESPN)
OAK +3 (Ding/ESPN)

[Dinger]

ESPN Top Pick
SD -9 (Accuscore has SD winning by average 12.5 and a 3.5 difference then spread)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/proje...sonYear%3d2011

[dragon1952]

Last year Chicago went 11-5 overall and were 5-3 at home, with 2 of those 3 home losses by just 3 pts. The other loss was a blowout to New England. I believe the two 3 pt losses were without both Briggs and Garza. So they were within 6 pts and a couple injuries of going 7-1 at home. They beat 3 playoff teams at home including the SB winner Green Bay Packers. The others were Philadelphia and the NY Jets.