I'd like to get some dialogue going on these games. Here are my thoughts.
(all trends are found using online research and are not my own)
NE at MIA - Current line (sportsbook.com) NE -7.5 O/U 46
First some interesting trends.
- Miami does not appear to have a home field advantage. In fact, they have only won 1 game SU out of their last 10 home games.
In those same 10 games they are just 2-8 ATS. In their last 16 home games they are just 5-11 ATS.
- NE is 4-2 ATS vs Miami the last 6 games, and they are 14-10 ATS last 24 MNF games. They beat up on Miami badly last year
winning 41-14 at Miami in Week 4 and then winning at home in Week 17 38-7. In the first game MIA led t 7-6 at HT but NE exploded
in the 2nd half with 35 pts, including 2 special team TD's and a defensive TD. Henne and Thigpen combined for 4 picks.
As for the total,
- Mia is 11-5 OV their last 16 at home and 4-2 OV their last 6 vs NE
- NE is 10-1 OV their last 11 games (4-1 OV last 5 road games)
I'm sure the odds makers have factored the above OV trends into the total of 46 as that's the highest one this week.
But, an interesting observation on the totals so far in Week 1. The OV is 11-3 so far. Someone posted in another thread (can't find it) how
over the total might be a good bet early on due to conditioning and short training camps? Whether it's actually due to that or not, it
does appear to be a trend thus far. There were 5 games so far that eclipsed 46 pts, and all but 2 games have been at least 41 pts.
I definitely like NE -7 and would buy the hook if the line was 7.5. I don't trust Henne to play mistake-free, which is what they'd need to
be competitive in this game. If NE can contain Bush, jump out to a lead and force Henne to the air I think they can get a pick or 2 and
maybe a couple short fields. Not sure I'd trust it to go over 46 but I do like a 7 pt teaser NE + OV 39.
So, I might look at NE -7 @ -130 and NE -1/2 and OV 39 @ -130
OAK at DEN - Current line DEN -3 (-125) and O/U 41.5
- Den - is just 8-26-1 ATS their last 35 games as a favorite
- Oak - swept the AFC West last year, scoring an average of 35.8 pts per game and winning 5 of them by 8 pts or more
- Oak - outscored Den 98-37 in 2 games last year
- Oak - is 9-3 OV their last 12 conference games
- Den - is 7-2 OV their last 9 divisional games
- Oak vs Den - are 6-2 OV in their last 8 head-to-head meetings
- Since 2008, all NFL divisional underdogs are 36-24-2 ATS during the month of September
I am liking Oakland +3 in this game. I think they have way more playmakers that can score any time they touch the ball.
McFadden and Bush, as well as some of the newer guys like Jacoby Ford, Taiwan Jones and Denarius Moore. We could see a KO
or punt returned with the guys on the return teams, or at least some shorter fields to work with. Denver has not been a good
favorite over the past few years. With John Fox, Denver is liable to be much more conservative on offense which might make it harder
to cover spreads. And Oakland has shown some recent dominance in the division.
I also like the over in this game. Neither defense should be that great, and the way Week 1 has gone only 3 games have been under 42,
and 13 out of 14 have hit at least 41.
So OAK +3 and then OV 41 (buying the hook), but not a parlay.
And maybe a 7 pt teaser, OAK +10 and OV 34.5
Thoughts, criticism, ideas all welcome.
(all trends are found using online research and are not my own)
NE at MIA - Current line (sportsbook.com) NE -7.5 O/U 46
First some interesting trends.
- Miami does not appear to have a home field advantage. In fact, they have only won 1 game SU out of their last 10 home games.
In those same 10 games they are just 2-8 ATS. In their last 16 home games they are just 5-11 ATS.
- NE is 4-2 ATS vs Miami the last 6 games, and they are 14-10 ATS last 24 MNF games. They beat up on Miami badly last year
winning 41-14 at Miami in Week 4 and then winning at home in Week 17 38-7. In the first game MIA led t 7-6 at HT but NE exploded
in the 2nd half with 35 pts, including 2 special team TD's and a defensive TD. Henne and Thigpen combined for 4 picks.
As for the total,
- Mia is 11-5 OV their last 16 at home and 4-2 OV their last 6 vs NE
- NE is 10-1 OV their last 11 games (4-1 OV last 5 road games)
I'm sure the odds makers have factored the above OV trends into the total of 46 as that's the highest one this week.
But, an interesting observation on the totals so far in Week 1. The OV is 11-3 so far. Someone posted in another thread (can't find it) how
over the total might be a good bet early on due to conditioning and short training camps? Whether it's actually due to that or not, it
does appear to be a trend thus far. There were 5 games so far that eclipsed 46 pts, and all but 2 games have been at least 41 pts.
I definitely like NE -7 and would buy the hook if the line was 7.5. I don't trust Henne to play mistake-free, which is what they'd need to
be competitive in this game. If NE can contain Bush, jump out to a lead and force Henne to the air I think they can get a pick or 2 and
maybe a couple short fields. Not sure I'd trust it to go over 46 but I do like a 7 pt teaser NE + OV 39.
So, I might look at NE -7 @ -130 and NE -1/2 and OV 39 @ -130
OAK at DEN - Current line DEN -3 (-125) and O/U 41.5
- Den - is just 8-26-1 ATS their last 35 games as a favorite
- Oak - swept the AFC West last year, scoring an average of 35.8 pts per game and winning 5 of them by 8 pts or more
- Oak - outscored Den 98-37 in 2 games last year
- Oak - is 9-3 OV their last 12 conference games
- Den - is 7-2 OV their last 9 divisional games
- Oak vs Den - are 6-2 OV in their last 8 head-to-head meetings
- Since 2008, all NFL divisional underdogs are 36-24-2 ATS during the month of September
I am liking Oakland +3 in this game. I think they have way more playmakers that can score any time they touch the ball.
McFadden and Bush, as well as some of the newer guys like Jacoby Ford, Taiwan Jones and Denarius Moore. We could see a KO
or punt returned with the guys on the return teams, or at least some shorter fields to work with. Denver has not been a good
favorite over the past few years. With John Fox, Denver is liable to be much more conservative on offense which might make it harder
to cover spreads. And Oakland has shown some recent dominance in the division.
I also like the over in this game. Neither defense should be that great, and the way Week 1 has gone only 3 games have been under 42,
and 13 out of 14 have hit at least 41.
So OAK +3 and then OV 41 (buying the hook), but not a parlay.
And maybe a 7 pt teaser, OAK +10 and OV 34.5
Thoughts, criticism, ideas all welcome.
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