So far this season I am 53-54-4 on picks in these threads.
I am 33.5-16.5 in the mock hilton (pick 5 no totals)
I am 20-13 in another pick 3 contest
I am 8-4 in the weekly pickem contest
When I take the best of my picks I do well but when I pick to many games it doesn't go as well. Been a fun experiment this year though to pick a bunch of picks (10+) each week after week 3 and see how it ends up.
With that in mind I'll continue this by picking my favorite for all the week's games. Of course some opinions may change as the weekend comes up but what the hay let's try it.
Thursday Night
Philly -3 @ Seattle
Seattle is a tough place to play and a short week after a whooping is a tough spot to be in. Add to that some key injuries Maclin and Vick still out, McCoy has an aching toe is Q but I imagine he'll be fine, cromartie out and Nandi with a hyper extended knee and a cross country flight... Not a good spot at all.
Other side Sidney Rice is gone for the year. Not as many injuries but that is a key injury.
Both lost last week eagles getting smoked by the pats and washington edging out the seahawks so both will look to bounce back. Both are 4-6 and oddly the away team has won in the last 5 times these teams have played. I think that will be a broken trend after tonight. Marshawn Lynch will get a lot of work. Seattle either wins SU or stays within that 3.
Sunday Morning
Titans @ Buffalo -2.5
Titans have been trading win/loss/win/loss the past couple weeks. They won last week so this week they lose.
They lose to a bills team that would have beaten the Jets had they not shot themselves in the leg (see what I did there?) They are coming off 3 road games and a 4 game losing streak to play at home. When they play well they are the better team.
Chiefs @ Bears -7
The chiefs blow. No one knows for sure if Orton or Palko is playing though it would seem like orton would be the obvious choice. Depends on how he does this week with the first team and the playbook. If he plays he'll be facing his old team. Who benefits here? The defense of the bears knowing how he operates or Orton who know would have a small leg up on reading the D?
I say bears.
Hanie started off with 3ints. BUT all in the first half away in his first start with the bears and then played decent after that. Chiefs are not the raiders and this is in chicago. Like the bears here.
Raiders @ Miami -3
Such a hard game to pick. Miami have been playing very good football lately and the raiders are playing well with palmer finding his identity in the oakland offense. It's a long trip for the raiders but they need these wins to keep that pesky tebow away from the division lead.
It is interesting to note that the raiders are 4-1 in away games losing only to the bills early in the year and are 5-0 ATS away.
Miami has a very good run defense allowing only 3 tds rushing this year. Still I do believe in Palmer as a Raider and think he can get it done in the air.
Very tough game since 1992 oakland is 2-10 against the dolphins SU. Still, only need to be within 3.
Bengals @ Steelers -6.5
The Bengals have been getting a lot of flak as fakers. I believe in them. I believe in Andy Dalton. Here he'll have his receivers and we'll see about Bensen. The Steelers may be without Polomalu which would give Dalton the edge. First meeting against them was 7pts difference. I'd bye that 1/2 but take it even at 6.5. Bengals need this win and they will play all out.
Both teams didn't do great last weekend both showing they can be slowed. Who takes advantage of this the most? Do the steelers take advantage enough to win by 7+? no.
Jets -3 @ Redskins
This is also a tough game. Redskins have been waking up the last 2 weeks. I knew they would against the cowboys but didn't expect them to show up at all against the Seahawks. Grossman is the better QB, Helu is running the ball well and Santana Moss is back and will add a bit more to the offense.
The Jets have been sloppy and terrible on offense. Sanchez had 4td's lat week but he missed a lot of passes and it wasn't pretty. Skins have a good defense as well and they can put the pressure on the Jets to slow them down. Fitz moved the ball well against the jets, Tebow did and brady of course. for now skins keep it close.
Falcons -3 @ Texans
Atlanta is playing well but now face a tough defense at houston. Texans have the #1 or 2 ranked defense depending on how you split it.
Atlanta has yet to give up a 100 yard rusher this season. Texans on the 3rd string QB but a kid that comes from a similar system that the Texans have believed in all season though probably didn't want to put him in this year.
Manage the game. FG game with few TD's.
Broncos @ Vikings -2
Tebow has been picking up wins and defying the odds. It's tough to pick against him but he has to lose eventually. Vikings will be without AP and that is a huge blow. But they have a good run defense which will play big. Last time they faced a good run defense was against the then winless Miami dolphins. That game came down to a prayer. Well you only get so many favors.
Like Vikings to bounce back at home, shut down the run and force Tebow to the air.
Colts @ Pats -20.5
This opened at 21. Wow. Orlovsky will be the QB (previously on the winless lions) and the defensive coordinator has been fired. Going into foxboro those are not good things. Pats do have a bad pass D but they have a great offense @houston, @NO and home againt atl they lost by more than 21pts. Let's add @NE this weekend.
I just don't believe the defense will be able to stop brady, orlovsky may not have the connection with his receivers his first game and bellichek will not let up he will crush the colts.
Afternoon Games
Ravens -6.5@ Browns
Browns showed up last week losing at the very end. Ravens won't be surprised by Hillis actually playing. They'll be ready and they have a better defense. They've had since last thursday to rest and prepare. Browns D will likely slow flacco but Ray Rice will bowl over them. Just not enough O in the browns to keep up. Ravens win by 10.
Rams @ San Fran -13.5
I'm not picking the rams to win. This will be Frank Gore day against the 32nd rush D. Bradford will have to go to the air a lot against this #1 rush D. Polar opposites. Rams should go 3 and out and then the 9ers should eat up clock. This could very well be a shutout.
Cowboys -4.5 @ Arizonia
Cowboys are 2-3 away. Both wins were overtime and both were 27-24. Arizonia has played all the NFC East teams tight. I want to say arizonia and I want them to win but I think cowboys see the nfc east title and 2 games with the giants and need the win here. They win and cover sadly.
Packers -7 @ Giants **
Packers (and lions) have the longest rest this week and the Giants (and saints) have the shortest rest this week. Schedule makers were unkind here pitting the first game thursday morning against the last game monday night.
Packers are looking for an undefeated season and the Giants are just hoping to snag a wild card as the division title seems like a loss.
Thing I know about the Giants is they bounce back very well. This loss to the saints (saints came off a bye into a monday night game) was a bit obvious. Something to note in that game is Eli threw for over 400 yards. The Packers have one of the worst pass D's in the league. The big question mark will be the Giants Defense. They were handled in the air and on the ground monday night. Adjustments will be made and if there is a team that is good at finding another team's weakness it is the Giants. The offense will play good but will the D?
I like them to cover the points here.
NOTE: I am a fan so my opinion here is a bit jaded. At the same time I know this team. Either the defense shows up and makes it a close game or the defense doesn't and rodgers wins by 3td's. That's the gamble boiled down.
Sunday Night
Lions @ Saints -9
Last time the Saints ran up the score they lost to the rams. Now they have the Lions coming into town and a large spread to cover. Stafford has been throwing without the glove this week and I believe that will increase his accuracy. Lions play in a dome. That ends their positives.
Saints have found a balance of passing and rushing making them a nightmare of a team. Detroit lost several players in the thanksgiving game including kevin smith and some in the secondary. Brees has a league high number of passing yards and can exploit that hole. Lots of points but saints cover.
Monday Night
Chargers -3 @ Jaguars
Chargers have lost 6 straight. Jags have lost their coach. Jacksonville is not a very good football team but neither are the chargers. Still, I'd take rivers over Gabbert and I'd take the Chargers receivers over anything on the jags.
Charger keep MJD in check and they win the game breaking their losing streak. I do believe a win here is more than 3pts.
Good luck folks
Seattle +3
Buffalo -2.5
Bears -7
Raiders -3
Bengals +6.5
Redskins +3
Texans +3
Vikings -2
Pats -20.5
Ravens -6.5
San Fran -13.5
Cowboys -4.5
Giants +7
Saints -9
Chargers -3
I am 33.5-16.5 in the mock hilton (pick 5 no totals)
I am 20-13 in another pick 3 contest
I am 8-4 in the weekly pickem contest
When I take the best of my picks I do well but when I pick to many games it doesn't go as well. Been a fun experiment this year though to pick a bunch of picks (10+) each week after week 3 and see how it ends up.
With that in mind I'll continue this by picking my favorite for all the week's games. Of course some opinions may change as the weekend comes up but what the hay let's try it.
Thursday Night
Philly -3 @ Seattle
Seattle is a tough place to play and a short week after a whooping is a tough spot to be in. Add to that some key injuries Maclin and Vick still out, McCoy has an aching toe is Q but I imagine he'll be fine, cromartie out and Nandi with a hyper extended knee and a cross country flight... Not a good spot at all.
Other side Sidney Rice is gone for the year. Not as many injuries but that is a key injury.
Both lost last week eagles getting smoked by the pats and washington edging out the seahawks so both will look to bounce back. Both are 4-6 and oddly the away team has won in the last 5 times these teams have played. I think that will be a broken trend after tonight. Marshawn Lynch will get a lot of work. Seattle either wins SU or stays within that 3.
Sunday Morning
Titans @ Buffalo -2.5
Titans have been trading win/loss/win/loss the past couple weeks. They won last week so this week they lose.
They lose to a bills team that would have beaten the Jets had they not shot themselves in the leg (see what I did there?) They are coming off 3 road games and a 4 game losing streak to play at home. When they play well they are the better team.
Chiefs @ Bears -7
The chiefs blow. No one knows for sure if Orton or Palko is playing though it would seem like orton would be the obvious choice. Depends on how he does this week with the first team and the playbook. If he plays he'll be facing his old team. Who benefits here? The defense of the bears knowing how he operates or Orton who know would have a small leg up on reading the D?
I say bears.
Hanie started off with 3ints. BUT all in the first half away in his first start with the bears and then played decent after that. Chiefs are not the raiders and this is in chicago. Like the bears here.
Raiders @ Miami -3
Such a hard game to pick. Miami have been playing very good football lately and the raiders are playing well with palmer finding his identity in the oakland offense. It's a long trip for the raiders but they need these wins to keep that pesky tebow away from the division lead.
It is interesting to note that the raiders are 4-1 in away games losing only to the bills early in the year and are 5-0 ATS away.
Miami has a very good run defense allowing only 3 tds rushing this year. Still I do believe in Palmer as a Raider and think he can get it done in the air.
Very tough game since 1992 oakland is 2-10 against the dolphins SU. Still, only need to be within 3.
Bengals @ Steelers -6.5
The Bengals have been getting a lot of flak as fakers. I believe in them. I believe in Andy Dalton. Here he'll have his receivers and we'll see about Bensen. The Steelers may be without Polomalu which would give Dalton the edge. First meeting against them was 7pts difference. I'd bye that 1/2 but take it even at 6.5. Bengals need this win and they will play all out.
Both teams didn't do great last weekend both showing they can be slowed. Who takes advantage of this the most? Do the steelers take advantage enough to win by 7+? no.
Jets -3 @ Redskins
This is also a tough game. Redskins have been waking up the last 2 weeks. I knew they would against the cowboys but didn't expect them to show up at all against the Seahawks. Grossman is the better QB, Helu is running the ball well and Santana Moss is back and will add a bit more to the offense.
The Jets have been sloppy and terrible on offense. Sanchez had 4td's lat week but he missed a lot of passes and it wasn't pretty. Skins have a good defense as well and they can put the pressure on the Jets to slow them down. Fitz moved the ball well against the jets, Tebow did and brady of course. for now skins keep it close.
Falcons -3 @ Texans
Atlanta is playing well but now face a tough defense at houston. Texans have the #1 or 2 ranked defense depending on how you split it.
Atlanta has yet to give up a 100 yard rusher this season. Texans on the 3rd string QB but a kid that comes from a similar system that the Texans have believed in all season though probably didn't want to put him in this year.
Manage the game. FG game with few TD's.
Broncos @ Vikings -2
Tebow has been picking up wins and defying the odds. It's tough to pick against him but he has to lose eventually. Vikings will be without AP and that is a huge blow. But they have a good run defense which will play big. Last time they faced a good run defense was against the then winless Miami dolphins. That game came down to a prayer. Well you only get so many favors.
Like Vikings to bounce back at home, shut down the run and force Tebow to the air.
Colts @ Pats -20.5
This opened at 21. Wow. Orlovsky will be the QB (previously on the winless lions) and the defensive coordinator has been fired. Going into foxboro those are not good things. Pats do have a bad pass D but they have a great offense @houston, @NO and home againt atl they lost by more than 21pts. Let's add @NE this weekend.
I just don't believe the defense will be able to stop brady, orlovsky may not have the connection with his receivers his first game and bellichek will not let up he will crush the colts.
Afternoon Games
Ravens -6.5@ Browns
Browns showed up last week losing at the very end. Ravens won't be surprised by Hillis actually playing. They'll be ready and they have a better defense. They've had since last thursday to rest and prepare. Browns D will likely slow flacco but Ray Rice will bowl over them. Just not enough O in the browns to keep up. Ravens win by 10.
Rams @ San Fran -13.5
I'm not picking the rams to win. This will be Frank Gore day against the 32nd rush D. Bradford will have to go to the air a lot against this #1 rush D. Polar opposites. Rams should go 3 and out and then the 9ers should eat up clock. This could very well be a shutout.
Cowboys -4.5 @ Arizonia
Cowboys are 2-3 away. Both wins were overtime and both were 27-24. Arizonia has played all the NFC East teams tight. I want to say arizonia and I want them to win but I think cowboys see the nfc east title and 2 games with the giants and need the win here. They win and cover sadly.
Packers -7 @ Giants **
Packers (and lions) have the longest rest this week and the Giants (and saints) have the shortest rest this week. Schedule makers were unkind here pitting the first game thursday morning against the last game monday night.
Packers are looking for an undefeated season and the Giants are just hoping to snag a wild card as the division title seems like a loss.
Thing I know about the Giants is they bounce back very well. This loss to the saints (saints came off a bye into a monday night game) was a bit obvious. Something to note in that game is Eli threw for over 400 yards. The Packers have one of the worst pass D's in the league. The big question mark will be the Giants Defense. They were handled in the air and on the ground monday night. Adjustments will be made and if there is a team that is good at finding another team's weakness it is the Giants. The offense will play good but will the D?
I like them to cover the points here.
NOTE: I am a fan so my opinion here is a bit jaded. At the same time I know this team. Either the defense shows up and makes it a close game or the defense doesn't and rodgers wins by 3td's. That's the gamble boiled down.
Sunday Night
Lions @ Saints -9
Last time the Saints ran up the score they lost to the rams. Now they have the Lions coming into town and a large spread to cover. Stafford has been throwing without the glove this week and I believe that will increase his accuracy. Lions play in a dome. That ends their positives.
Saints have found a balance of passing and rushing making them a nightmare of a team. Detroit lost several players in the thanksgiving game including kevin smith and some in the secondary. Brees has a league high number of passing yards and can exploit that hole. Lots of points but saints cover.
Monday Night
Chargers -3 @ Jaguars
Chargers have lost 6 straight. Jags have lost their coach. Jacksonville is not a very good football team but neither are the chargers. Still, I'd take rivers over Gabbert and I'd take the Chargers receivers over anything on the jags.
Charger keep MJD in check and they win the game breaking their losing streak. I do believe a win here is more than 3pts.
Good luck folks
Seattle +3
Buffalo -2.5
Bears -7
Raiders -3
Bengals +6.5
Redskins +3
Texans +3
Vikings -2
Pats -20.5
Ravens -6.5
San Fran -13.5
Cowboys -4.5
Giants +7
Saints -9
Chargers -3
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