Current line -
New England -7.5 vs Baltimore 50.5
San Francisco -2.5 vs New York Giants 42.5
Picks -
Baltimore +7.5 @ New England - Baltimore is a top 3 defense in many categories including points per game (16.6), yds per game (288) and passing yds per game (196). The Pats are ranked 31st on defense in yards allowed per game, but they have only given up an average of 21.4 ppg. They are ranked 3rd in scoring offense with an average of 32.1 ppg, while Baltimore scores an average of 23.6 ppg. That's an 8.5 ppg difference and we have a line of 7.5. That's just looking at offense though. With Baltimore's defense giving up an average of just 16.6 ppg you would think that New England might not be able to generate quite their average output, and they can be held in that category. The Pats scored just 17 against Pittsburgh in Week 8 and then just 20 the following week vs the NY Giants. I think getting 7.5 pts with such a great defense in freezing weather (and maybe snow) is a pretty good deal, especially when the opponent gives up the 2nd most yds in the NFL. Baltimore should be able to move the ball and score, and they have a great RB in Ray Rice. A great defense, a great RB and freezing weather should be a key to keeping this game close.
New England 27 Baltimore 24
NY Giants +3 @ San Francisco - Buy the 1/2 pt. The Giants played at SF in Week 10, losing 27-20. The first 6 scores of that game were all FG's. SF led 9-6 at HT and then 12-6 shortly into the 3rd Q on another FG. The Giants scored on a TD near the end of the 3rd Q to take a 13-12 lead entering the 4th Q. The 49ers then took advantage of a short field scoring their 1st TD on a 50 yd drive before intercepting Manning and getting another short field at their own 17 yd line, scoring on the very next play. The Giants then went 80 yds for a TD to make it 27-20, held SF on the next couple possessions before driving to the SF 10 yd line with 37 secs left in the game where Manning's pass was batted down on 4th and 2. Bottom line, this was a very close game throughout.
The Giants were without RB Ahmad Bradshaw in that game. In addition, it was Hakeem Nicks first game back after sitting out the previous week with a hamstring injury and he was not at 100%. The Giants held the edge in most categories except in TO's where Manning had 2 picks and Alex Smith just 1. One of the Manning picks led directly to 7 pts. The Giants held the edge in FD's 21-16, offensive yds 395-305, rushing 93-77, passing 311-242, plays 70-52, 3rd down efficiency 50% (7 of 14) -27% (3 of 11) and TOP 34:37-25:23. The 49ers lost Gore for the 2nd H due to injury but he was held to 6 carries for 0 yds in the 1st H. The Giants are playing really well right now, as are the 49ers. This should be another very close game that could go either way. The Giants gave the 49ers two very short fields in the first game (at the 50 and at the 17) and still had a shot to tie it at the end.
In two playoff games the NY Giants have held 2 very good offenses to a total of 22 pts. If they play defense like they have the last 2 games, I'll gladly take them at +3.
NY Giants 24 SF 20
New England -7.5 vs Baltimore 50.5
San Francisco -2.5 vs New York Giants 42.5
Picks -
Baltimore +7.5 @ New England - Baltimore is a top 3 defense in many categories including points per game (16.6), yds per game (288) and passing yds per game (196). The Pats are ranked 31st on defense in yards allowed per game, but they have only given up an average of 21.4 ppg. They are ranked 3rd in scoring offense with an average of 32.1 ppg, while Baltimore scores an average of 23.6 ppg. That's an 8.5 ppg difference and we have a line of 7.5. That's just looking at offense though. With Baltimore's defense giving up an average of just 16.6 ppg you would think that New England might not be able to generate quite their average output, and they can be held in that category. The Pats scored just 17 against Pittsburgh in Week 8 and then just 20 the following week vs the NY Giants. I think getting 7.5 pts with such a great defense in freezing weather (and maybe snow) is a pretty good deal, especially when the opponent gives up the 2nd most yds in the NFL. Baltimore should be able to move the ball and score, and they have a great RB in Ray Rice. A great defense, a great RB and freezing weather should be a key to keeping this game close.
New England 27 Baltimore 24
NY Giants +3 @ San Francisco - Buy the 1/2 pt. The Giants played at SF in Week 10, losing 27-20. The first 6 scores of that game were all FG's. SF led 9-6 at HT and then 12-6 shortly into the 3rd Q on another FG. The Giants scored on a TD near the end of the 3rd Q to take a 13-12 lead entering the 4th Q. The 49ers then took advantage of a short field scoring their 1st TD on a 50 yd drive before intercepting Manning and getting another short field at their own 17 yd line, scoring on the very next play. The Giants then went 80 yds for a TD to make it 27-20, held SF on the next couple possessions before driving to the SF 10 yd line with 37 secs left in the game where Manning's pass was batted down on 4th and 2. Bottom line, this was a very close game throughout.
The Giants were without RB Ahmad Bradshaw in that game. In addition, it was Hakeem Nicks first game back after sitting out the previous week with a hamstring injury and he was not at 100%. The Giants held the edge in most categories except in TO's where Manning had 2 picks and Alex Smith just 1. One of the Manning picks led directly to 7 pts. The Giants held the edge in FD's 21-16, offensive yds 395-305, rushing 93-77, passing 311-242, plays 70-52, 3rd down efficiency 50% (7 of 14) -27% (3 of 11) and TOP 34:37-25:23. The 49ers lost Gore for the 2nd H due to injury but he was held to 6 carries for 0 yds in the 1st H. The Giants are playing really well right now, as are the 49ers. This should be another very close game that could go either way. The Giants gave the 49ers two very short fields in the first game (at the 50 and at the 17) and still had a shot to tie it at the end.
In two playoff games the NY Giants have held 2 very good offenses to a total of 22 pts. If they play defense like they have the last 2 games, I'll gladly take them at +3.
NY Giants 24 SF 20
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