Digging in the way back machine for this scenario:
Since 1978, 17 times in the divisional round, the dog of 7 points or more won SU. The following week in the championship round back on the road, that team is 3-12 SU, 5-10 ATS.
The 79 Rams and 08 Cardinals were the only two teams that hosted the championship game.
17 CC SU ATS
79 Houston L L Rams were home, n/a
83 Seattle L L
84 Chicago L L
86 Washington L L
87 Minnesota L L
93 Kansas City L L
95 Green Bay L L
95 Indianapolis L W
96 Jacksonville L L
3 Carolina W W
5 Pittsburgh W W
7 New York Giants W W
7 San Diego L W
8 Arizona AZ was home
9 New York Jets L L
10 New York Jets L L
3-12 SU 5-10 ATS
ROAD TEAMS IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AFC 11-22 SU 13-20 ATS 0-5 SU 1-4 ATS L5 2 WERE FAVORITES AND BOTH WON DOGS OF 7.5+ 1-9SU, 4-6 ATS
NFC 11-22 SU 15-18 ATS 10 WERE FAVORITES GOING 5-5 SU/ATS
AFC DOGS 9-22 SU 11-20 ATS
NFC DOGS 6-17 SU 10-13 ATS
Right now, I'm leaning Baltimore +8 (Rice will be able to run against Pats D) and SF -2.5.
Since 1978, 17 times in the divisional round, the dog of 7 points or more won SU. The following week in the championship round back on the road, that team is 3-12 SU, 5-10 ATS.
The 79 Rams and 08 Cardinals were the only two teams that hosted the championship game.
17 CC SU ATS
79 Houston L L Rams were home, n/a
83 Seattle L L
84 Chicago L L
86 Washington L L
87 Minnesota L L
93 Kansas City L L
95 Green Bay L L
95 Indianapolis L W
96 Jacksonville L L
3 Carolina W W
5 Pittsburgh W W
7 New York Giants W W
7 San Diego L W
8 Arizona AZ was home
9 New York Jets L L
10 New York Jets L L
3-12 SU 5-10 ATS
ROAD TEAMS IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AFC 11-22 SU 13-20 ATS 0-5 SU 1-4 ATS L5 2 WERE FAVORITES AND BOTH WON DOGS OF 7.5+ 1-9SU, 4-6 ATS
NFC 11-22 SU 15-18 ATS 10 WERE FAVORITES GOING 5-5 SU/ATS
AFC DOGS 9-22 SU 11-20 ATS
NFC DOGS 6-17 SU 10-13 ATS
Right now, I'm leaning Baltimore +8 (Rice will be able to run against Pats D) and SF -2.5.