rickjs Handicapping Picks 2012 NFL plays and Hilton contest picks

[RickJ]

My picks this week in the Hilton Contest in the order I liked them at the time:

Jacksonville +3.5
Tennessee +5.5
Cinci + 6.5
Indianapolis +9.5
San Fran +5

Jacksonville +3.5 is a pure handicapping play as the public is split on the game about 50-50. Getting the hook on the 3 just puts this at the top of my list.

Tennessee +5.5 is one of those games that if you mention you like this side it will get you a lot of ridicule around the poker table. This is one of those setups that a few years ago you would find it and would laugh when you placed your bet down on it..knowing it was going to be good. Things have changed however and this setup is still pretty good but nowhere near the automatic win it used to be.

Not much to say about the other 3. However my 5th pick was between St. Louis and San Fran. But the line in the Hilton contest was only +7 on St. Louis so that made it an easy decision…if it would of been 8.5 I am not sure what I would of done.

I also considered Miami +13 but I am not going to go down the drain with an unproven rookie quarterback…at least on his first start ever!

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

NFL Plays for today..and this might be it for the day:

Indianapolis +9.5
Washington +8.5
Tenn +5

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Last week was 2-3 for week 1. My only clear cut winner was San Fran. Jacksonville squeaked in covering by a half a point. The other 3 were not close.

This week my picks are in the order I liked them at the time:

Tampa Bay +7.5
Jacksonville +7
Detroit +6.5
Jets +6
Tenn +6

I had it narrowed down to 3 teams for my 5th pick….the other two were the bears and KC. Tenn looked like the best of the three. I primarily steered away from KC since The public is 65% on KC as a road dog. That is a red flag for me!

rickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Saturday we went 2-2 on our college football plays and 1-0 on our 1 unit total in baseball for a +.80 unit day.

Our two wins in college football were easy ones with the two dogs winning outright. The other two games Louisiana tech and BC could of gone either way. But the end game was not kind to us. We had the two games covered in the last two min in both A 4th and 8 touchdown play by rice at the end of the game did us in and a punt by Northwestern at the end of the game that ended up on the 1 yard line of BC was our undoing in that game.

Oh well….on to Sunday:

There are two plays in the early games today:

Tampa Bay +7
Jacksonville +7 -120

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Well hitting a solid 30% after the 1st 2 weeks I would not go very crazy on these!

My picks for week 3 in the order I liked them at the time:

Oakland +4
Miami +3
Arizona +4
KC +8.5
Cinci +3.5

I had to choose between Cinci and Carolina for my 5th pick. Carolina was a pick in the hilton contest with the line -2.5 and -3 at a few spots before game time. I avoided the trap! But I am sure many did not.

If there are any plays they will be put out tomorrow.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Saturday we went 2-1 on our 1 unit plays in College football. Auburn +18 was an easy winner. Army could of gone either way and we lost but Fla Int could of gone either way and we won.

Now onto the NFL. First going over the results from last week It is clear that nothing seemed to work for me in analyzing the games. Everything I used had no predictive value last week ..and also the games were not close. This can happen from week to week but certainly something to be aware of. It can also happen through the entire season. The sample size is very small in the NFL.

Also in the NFL its always a good sign when you are looking at a bet that you just cannot bring yourself to bet it. That your human instincts are screaming at you …DO NOT BET THIS! And its even stronger when your human instincts are screaming at you …BET THE OTHER SIDE!

The best analogy I can think of is the instrument pilot that is flying in the clouds with no visual reference. He gets disoriented and his Human instincts are telling him I am heading down….but his instruments are telling him he is OK …flying straight and level. And of course…human that he is…and most likely without appropriate training..he believes his instincts and flys the plane straight into the ground…and all he had to do is put aside his human instincts believe the instruments and stay safe.

Human instincts can be very tricky…especially when it comes to gambling. They tend to sabotage you at every step. And the books that make up these lines have the public psychology down to a science.

So…despite what my instincts are telling me about Tenn..after all…they were not competitive in their last 2 games….(of course they were on the road against New England and San Diego with a new quarterback) Now they are at home…and from what I have seen the quarterback has a lot of talent. That New England game could of gone the other way!

I am going to go against the 82% of the public that love Detroit in this spot…and even get the hook on the 3.

So onto today.

Sunday NFL
1 Unit play
Tenn +3.5

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportsplays

[RickJ]

My record in the Hilton contest is 7-7-1 after a 4-0-1 week last week.

This week in the Hilton Contest in the order I liked them at the time:

Miami +6.5
Chicago +3.5
Tennessee +12
Washington +3
Seattle -2.5

It was between Cleveland thursday night and seattle for my 5th pick. Lets see if losing my mind and picking a road favorite made a difference!

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Afternoon Games

1 Unit Play
Miami +4

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

My record is now 10-9-1 In the Hilton contest going into week 5.

My Picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Miami +4
KC +5
Phil +3.5
Seattle +3
Buffalo +9.5

I will post plays in the morning.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Sunday NFL plays

1 Unit Play

Miami +3

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

After 5 weeks I am 14-10-1 in the Hilton Contest. I am tied for 107th with 1st place having 18 pts. So I am 3.5 pts out of first with 107 people to jump over!

I have started week 6 out with a win on Tennessee.

My Hilton picks in the order I liked them at the time:

Seattle +3.5
Tenn +5.5 W
Buffalo +4.5
Detroit +4.5
Indianapolis +3

As of right now nothing qualifies as a play but I will update Sunday.

So after a dismal first 2 weeks 3-7 I have been on a 12-3-1 run. Lets see if I can keep it up

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

After 6 weeks I am 18-11-1. After a 3-7 start the last 4 weeks have been quite a rush going 15-4-1 or 77.5%.

I am now tied for 58th….1.5 pts out of 20th and 3.5 pts out of first.

My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

1. Jets +10.5
2. Baltimore +6.5
3. Cleveland +3
4. St Louis +5.5
5. Jacksonville 4.5

Most of the time the line moves where I have a pretty good line as the line moves. However this time Baltimore has moved to +7 and Jacksonville has moved to +6. Pretty significant moves against my picks. On the other hand Cleveland has moved to +1.5 and the other two about the same.

Other games of note. I considered Tampa bay +2.5. Everything I look at points to Tampa…however teams coming off of bye weeks and that are favored have a cover percentage of over 60%. That kept me away from tampa.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Going into Week 8 I am 20-14-1 or 58.57%. There are 750 entrants and I am tied for 92nd 2 pts out of 20th and 4.5 pts out of 1st. It would be nice to get another 4 week run!

My picks in the order I liked them at the time:

KC -2
Seattle +2
Denver -6
Washington +4.5
Miami +2

Some observations….the public is on the dog in about half the games! And in two of the games very heavy on the dog. That is very unusual. 2nd…I actually picked 2 favorites. Something I do not usually do…but that shows the unusual week that week 8 is. And finally one of my picks is on a dog that 71% of the public is on. That game is Washington. Everything I look at points to Washington +4.5 and all are strongly on that side…the problem is the public likes that side a lot also…so….I am am with the public on this one…occasionally they get come in…it will be an interesting game.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

[RickJ]

Going into week 9 I am 22-17-1 for a bit over 56%. The rush is over! Also my first pick for this weekend on KC went down so 0-1 with four plays left.

My Hilton picks in the order I liked them at the time:

1. Carolina +4
2. Dallas +4
3 KC +7.5 (L)
4. Cinci +3.5
5. Phil +3

I will post any plays in the morning along with a few comments.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: ricksjswingtrade

[woodee12]

Hi Rick-
Thanks for posting.

Whats your angle on the Ravens this week? HUGE public play and I hate playing on a public team but against the Browns, who just beat the Chargers (who stink too) I think Balt should roll coming off a bye and but that is majority thinking in the NFL betting.
Scary line to me but I bit. Looks to me like it will be a Ravens win by 3 and the hook will kill you.
Any thoughts?