Why the books win...

[woodee12]

Thursday night game. The obvious play is over 51 as everyone is yelling shoot out. I usually go the other way of the shoot out but tonight I fell for it and made it my gow play. Stupid I know.

But the lesson here for new guys. The sure thing is usually opposite or a no play.

I did not play it for real money but it's still a bad, very square play.

When everyone is on one side on a national tv game, pass or go opposite.

Any thoughts, chime in.

[guy]

I say you have to have a system of picking your games and you keep working it until it gives you the return you're looking for. There is no sure thing and you shoudn't necessarily go the opposite way of the crowd. Sometimes the crowd holds deep wisdom- you measure on a case by case basis. It wasn't a stupid bet at all- it was a lost bet. The book can be beat, sharps do it all the time. Keep your head up my friend.

[woodee12]

Good point.

I guess I am saying it was a stupid play for my 1 GOW the week play with all those others I had to choose from. Epecially when I posted about Thursday games being tough to cap.

[hart attack]

Woods, I too loved, played, & lost the over here. How could you not? Packer secondary is pathetic and emergence of Jeffery opposite Marshall with the way Forte has been running makes me confident that Chicago will score 24 MINIMUM. And we all know that GB at home can put points on the board in a hurry. Cutler and Marshall both played like turds, along with the entire O-line. Brilliant play calling too to avoid getting the pigskin to your most dynamic player the entire 1H. Note to Bear OC- (INVOLVE #15 in first series even if it's only a 6 yd hitch or bubble screen). That 3Q EZ pass to Marshall hit him in a bad spot...right in both hands.

[widestrides]

Yeah, you can't just go opposite your gut, sure-thing play - even if it is a Public play. Maybe take a step back and take anther look, but if it feels strong to you, you can't just go OPPOSITE! Public plays are a warning though - as the points will be adjusted accordingly. If the Public loses more often that wins, it is just because more points have been added to that line. Sometimes that's enough to make a win a loss but sometimes the Public is right that GB and Chicago can score a lot of points. Division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. Teams know each other.

[oldluds]

Woodman, you are a respected capper here. So a grain of salt from someone that probably plays "gut" more than most. I just turned 55 big ones (age), and remember making bets back in 8th grade All the stats, trends, ect ect can never take into account turnovers, and bad plays in general. You still ride with the prettiest horse, and feel good when she finishes on top, but be able to put it behind you when she lays an egg. Last night for instance.... I teased the Bears up to +12, and felt really confidant about it, and dropped a fair size piece of change to account for the tease price. So much for that I felt pretty bad for about 5 minutes after the game, and then moved on to the next games. The over/under definately looked appealing too, but backed away. I guess I am saying the same as Widestrides did above, if you've been doing this long enough, you got to trust the "gut", and just move on when the "gut" vomits on you Enjoy your insight always. Good Luck my man.

[Bettorsworld]

All the guys have made some great points here.

Here's the thing. Going against the public, or going against the obvious, has it's merit. No question. However, you can't let it consume you. I hate it when I settle on a side that just so happens to be a public side, but I won't let it get me off the play as long as I can get a good number.

You have to consider this........the public wins sometimes. They have winning weeks, they have winning months, and yes, they have even had winning seasons. I believe last football season the public was kicking the books asses the first couple of months.

Remember, the public or the squares, whatever terminology you want to use, don't lose 100% of the time. They may pick winners at a 45-50% clip, maybe even a little better. (they mostly lose because they don't know HOW to bet - manage their BR)).......so if they pick at a 50/50 clip, what if the game you like is in that 50% winners???

The same holds true for playing AGAINST the sharp side. The sharpest of the sharp may win 58% of the time (although I think that's too generous). That means 42 losers out of 100. So, you're going against a so called "sharp" play. Big deal......maybe it's one of those 42 losers.

Just concentrate on getting the best number, whichever side you're on, and don't make rookie mistakes (like buying the packers down to -5 from -6.5)

There can be plenty of instances, when BOTH sides of the game win, for the guys that got the best number on each side of a move.....who's the sharp there? (the guys with the best numbers)

[dogkatcher]

Times have changed, no doubt. Being old as dirt, I can recall
when Bob Martin set the lines way back when. When he put
out a trap line, it was easy $$$. Those days seem to be gone
in my opinion, and the too good to be true lines seem to win
more often in the present. Best of Luck to all.

[widestrides]

Lines are very sharp now with all the info on the Internet. And even if the Public is on the Fav big time, the Books can't shade the line that much because there will be some heavy hitters and "program traders" that come in and hit them hard. So that keeps lines pretty sharp and in a way even protects the squares a bit from getting really bad lines. It has become a very efficient market. Makes you think that teasers should be doing better and better. I would bet that both sides of teasers are hitting at a higher rate than they used to just because the lines are tighter now.