Dogs are howling this week! 10-2 SO FAR THIS WEEK!!

[Taxman]

TEN: SU W
DET: SU W
DAL: ATS W
CLE: SU W
NYG: SU W
WAS: SU W
OAK: ATS W
STL: ATS W
BUF: SU W
SEA: SU W

DOGS ARE 10-2 SO FAR THIS WEEK!

Home dogs are hitting at a crazy rate!


Only the Jets and Tampa covered the spread.

[widestrides]

Unreal. Each week we think the oddsmakers have to adjust, but as long as there is a large public market that keeps going for the favs, they keep setting the favs lines higher and giving square money to the sharp underdog bettors.

[dragon1952]

I posted this in another thread after the Thurs night game re: home dogs but it applies here too.
"Using our Mock Hilton lines, home dogs are now 18-10-1 ATS and 15-14 SU (including the Ten win last night). The first 3 weeks of the season home dogs were 13-5-1 ATS and 12-7 SU.
Weeks 4-5 they only went 4-5 ATS and 2-7 SU so maybe it's going to start evening out?
But then the Titans pull out both the ATS and SU win last night. There are only 2 more home dogs this
week, Sea +3.5 vs NE and Was +2.5 vs Min. I like Was +2.5 quite a bit but not sure about Sea. NE's 33 ppg
average might be hard to offset."

So this week, if you count the Cleveland/Cincinnati line moving off of a pick-em to Cin -2 the home dogs went 4-0 both ATS and SU with Was, Ten, Cle and Sea all winning. So home dogs are now 21-10-1 ATS and 18-14 SU.

[garister]

so continue the treand tonight, Take Denver the dog

[daddyd]

I agree Denver is the side Im playin. GL all

[Taxman]

Watch out, over 75% of the 'paid' handicap plays are on Denver.

[dragon1952]

It went to a pick-em a couple hrs ago. I took Den +8/OV 40.5 when it was still +1.

[daddyd]

I don't know about the first two fumbles. The first one I was sure was gonna be fair catch interferace. The second one I didn't see why he had to get on the ball was it touched by another Bronco?

[daddyd]

I guess the refs couldn't win it for the bolts.

[resteasy]

what a 2nd half.
1st half was such an illusion. 17 pts off special teams foul ups and a miscommunication pick 6 (14 pt swing) chargers having 1 single good drive.

[garister]

It went to a pick-em a couple hrs ago. I took Den +8/OV 40.5 when it was still +1.

Your teasers are solid, keep on posting them.

[Taxman]

Your teasers are solid, keep on posting them.

Dragon, question for you, and please do not take it the wrong way.

If you parlayed instead of lowering the point spread or over/under would you have hit those bets and other bets?

Just wondering if it is really beneficial to play teasers instead of actual spreads?

Thanks!

[dragon1952]

I'm glad you asked me that question as it gave me a chance to look back over the past 30-35 days of bets. First you have to know that I'm a sucker for parlays and buying pts. I learned 3 things looking back.
1. I need to totally ignore college football. If I did I'd have twice the bankroll. I just absolutely suck.
2. I don't do well on any straight parlays or even when I can buy up to 3 pts per game. I lose the large majority.
3. I've been kicking butt on 6.5, 7 and 10 pt parlays over the past 33 days or so.
On those 6.5-10 pt parlays I have won 14 out of 16.
The 14 winners break down like this -
7 2-team 7pt parlays and 2 2-team 6.5 pt parlays. These are usually Monday, Sunday and Thursday night games where I take a side and the OV/UN.
1 each 4, 5 and 6 team 7 pt parlays.
2 10 pt parlays.

So 14 out of 16 I've won, and to answer your original question 10 of those I would have lost if not for the added points.

Edit: On straight parlays you'd of course win a much larger amount. I didn't figure out whether or not I'd be ahead if I had bet straight parlays using the same wager amounts by winning just 4 and losing 12 but likely not as none of the 4, 5 or 6 team parlays would have hit and both 10 pt parlays (which I bet larger amounts on) would have lost.

[dragon1952]

If anyone cares, for Thursday Night Seattle at San Francisco I'm playing,
Sea +14
UN 45

probably the kiss of death posting :^ /

49es have struggled offensively against the 2 better defensive efforts they've faced and Seattle has a good one. The Seahawks held Green Bay to just 12 pts and the Pats to 23 pts and the 49ers aren't in those types of class offensively. Seattle's 2 losses have been by 4 and 6. Seattle is only averaging 300 ypg offensively and giving up just 294. SF is just giving up 275 ypg. Looks to be a low scoring game so Sea +14 and 45 total pts look pretty juicy.

[Taxman]

Thanks for your honest opinion and insight.

That is one of the issues I am trying to address in my database.