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So going by our Mock Hilton lines the home dogs went 3-0 both ATS and SU last week with Was, Ten and Sea all winning out-right. If you count the Cleveland/Cincinnati line moving off of a pick-em to Cin -2 they went 4-0. So home dogs are now 21-10-1 ATS and 18-14 SU for the year.
This week there are 4 more home dogs. I'm not necessarily making picks here, but I am leaning towards 3 of the dogs liking TB the best. Also, I think 3 of these home dogs make excellent teaser choices.
Tampa Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans - The Saints continue to be a favorite even with a 1-4 record and the worst defense in the NFL. They were fortunate to win last time out having to come from behind in the 4th Q in a hugely emotional and meaningful game. They've had a week off but I doubt that has improved their defense any. The Saints are giving up an average of 172 ypg rushing and another 283 ypg in the air, and are giving up an average of 31 ppg. The Bucs have 2 bruising RB's to keep the clock moving and keep Brees off the field. The Chiefs did this and held NO to just 26 min time of possession.TB could very easily be 5-0 right now and I don't think they deserve to be the dog here, but everyone is enamored with Drew Brees and are remembering the Saints of the past few years. Brees' QB rating is only 90.7 so far this year and he may be missing Jimmy Graham for this game. TB has played NO tough over the years and own a 6-4 SU record vs them since 2007, so this is another home dog that could continue the recent trend of upsets.
St Louis +5.5 vs Green Bay - GB is not really a road favorite I am willing to buck after their performance last week despite being just 2-4 ATS so far. St Louis has averaged just 14 ppg over the past 4 weeks and GB has a great shot at going into their Week 10 bye at 6-3 with St Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona the next 3 weeks (with the latter 2 at home). I think they may start putting things together.
Carolina +2.5 vs Dallas - Neither team has played very well so far overall, and Dallas has a huge divisional match-up coming up next week vs the New York Giants. The Cowboys did come off of the bye week, and after that terrible showing against the Bears on national TV, looking much sharper but they did enough things wrong to come up short again. To make matters worse they will have to do without the services of their star RB DeMarco Murray this week. Carolina has lost it's last 2 games by a total of 6 pts and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, who are another team that gets too much credit from the betting public hence the 2.5 favorite status on the road. The Panthers have a great shot to pull off the "upset" and keep the home dog ball rolling.
Cincinnati +2.5 vs Pittsburgh - The Bengals are a scary team to be home underdogs. Dalton is completing 66% of his passes and currently has the 5th highest passing yds in the NFL and tied for 3rd with 12 passing TD's....plus he has the NFL's leading WR in total yards and TD's (tied at 6 TD's), A.J. Green to throw to. The Steelers will be missing their leading pass defender again with Troy Polumalu out, and are thin at RB with both Mendenhall and Isaac Redman out. They'll have both pass rushing specialists, Lamar Woodley and James Harrison, on the field together for one of the few times this year so we'll have to see how healthy they are. The Steelers have aired it out this year, averaging 285 ypg and with 12 passing TD's so this could be an aerial battle. Hence, anything could happen. Pittsburgh is 0-3 on the road this year though so this looks like another opportunity for a home dog to win SU.
This week there are 4 more home dogs. I'm not necessarily making picks here, but I am leaning towards 3 of the dogs liking TB the best. Also, I think 3 of these home dogs make excellent teaser choices.
Tampa Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans - The Saints continue to be a favorite even with a 1-4 record and the worst defense in the NFL. They were fortunate to win last time out having to come from behind in the 4th Q in a hugely emotional and meaningful game. They've had a week off but I doubt that has improved their defense any. The Saints are giving up an average of 172 ypg rushing and another 283 ypg in the air, and are giving up an average of 31 ppg. The Bucs have 2 bruising RB's to keep the clock moving and keep Brees off the field. The Chiefs did this and held NO to just 26 min time of possession.TB could very easily be 5-0 right now and I don't think they deserve to be the dog here, but everyone is enamored with Drew Brees and are remembering the Saints of the past few years. Brees' QB rating is only 90.7 so far this year and he may be missing Jimmy Graham for this game. TB has played NO tough over the years and own a 6-4 SU record vs them since 2007, so this is another home dog that could continue the recent trend of upsets.
St Louis +5.5 vs Green Bay - GB is not really a road favorite I am willing to buck after their performance last week despite being just 2-4 ATS so far. St Louis has averaged just 14 ppg over the past 4 weeks and GB has a great shot at going into their Week 10 bye at 6-3 with St Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona the next 3 weeks (with the latter 2 at home). I think they may start putting things together.
Carolina +2.5 vs Dallas - Neither team has played very well so far overall, and Dallas has a huge divisional match-up coming up next week vs the New York Giants. The Cowboys did come off of the bye week, and after that terrible showing against the Bears on national TV, looking much sharper but they did enough things wrong to come up short again. To make matters worse they will have to do without the services of their star RB DeMarco Murray this week. Carolina has lost it's last 2 games by a total of 6 pts and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, who are another team that gets too much credit from the betting public hence the 2.5 favorite status on the road. The Panthers have a great shot to pull off the "upset" and keep the home dog ball rolling.
Cincinnati +2.5 vs Pittsburgh - The Bengals are a scary team to be home underdogs. Dalton is completing 66% of his passes and currently has the 5th highest passing yds in the NFL and tied for 3rd with 12 passing TD's....plus he has the NFL's leading WR in total yards and TD's (tied at 6 TD's), A.J. Green to throw to. The Steelers will be missing their leading pass defender again with Troy Polumalu out, and are thin at RB with both Mendenhall and Isaac Redman out. They'll have both pass rushing specialists, Lamar Woodley and James Harrison, on the field together for one of the few times this year so we'll have to see how healthy they are. The Steelers have aired it out this year, averaging 285 ypg and with 12 passing TD's so this could be an aerial battle. Hence, anything could happen. Pittsburgh is 0-3 on the road this year though so this looks like another opportunity for a home dog to win SU.
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