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My thoughts going into the week were that I wanted to use Seat and Miami. After going over everybody's pick possibilities in my pool, it looks like probably up to 80 people might use Miami. So, I need to decide if it is to my advantage to find another game and hope for a Jacksonville win. One thing in pools this large, it just does you no good to continue to pick with the masses. You either get knocked out with them or make less money with them. If I don't use Miami it would separate me from everyone this week and next week, as I could use Mia over Buff for my second pick if needed.
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When I first started doing these pools years ago I tried to stay away from division games, but after studying division rematches for years I think some of these games can end up being a great pick or a pick to stay away from. Let me see if I can explain this well, this is also a great betting tool as I am sure many of you know...So, I am talking about division rematches, the 2nd game for 2 teams. If you throw out the top team of the division against the shitty teams, ex Den, NE, Hou and GrBay this year, the rematch usually swaps winners at about a 70-80% clip. Some ex's this year are Wash over NYG, Chic over Minn, Pitt over Balt, Stl over SF and Seat over Ariz this last week. The Tenn Indy game this last week and the Dall, Phil game the week before didn't come in, but both Tenn and Phil led for most of the game. With this in mind, the NO, TBay and Oak, KC matchups this week make me nervous to pick either favorite. NO can easily be down since they have no playoff shot now. Just some thoughts.Comment
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on the subject of saints/bucs.....within last few seasons an undefeated saints team hosted a hapless bucs squad pretty deep into the season and proceeded to take a dump and knock me out...wouldn't touch this game with a fingered glove.Comment
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Totally agree with this point. Try and avoid the masses, if you possibly can. Unless you have a big advantage next week with your remaining teams, and need the surest thing(s) to get through this week. In your sitaution, it sounds like you have enough leeway to avoid Miami.Originally posted by wisconsin5473 View PostComment
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Hey Guesser and Hart Attack what makes you like Oak so much? I am trying to consider this game, but I don't know if I can. I got to see 30 of the other people's picks( they shut the pool down for the Thurs game and you can see whoever posts their picks early) and it was just like I thought 27 of the 30 involve Mia or Det. I really have a feeling Det might lose this game. So, at this point, I am taking Seat and looking at San Diego or St Lou for my other game. I keep trying to consider Oak. What do you guys see in this game?Comment
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Maybe Herbert should pick for me, lol!!!Comment
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Anybody have any thoughts on the SD or Stl games?Comment
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I don't like Oakland. But I've been picking against KC on the road whenever possible. They've totally quit, they're beat up, they are playing for a Coach and GM that are dead men walking. They "got up" for that game 2 weeks ago after the Belcher tragedy, and then reverted right back to what I thought. Brady Quinn is a joke of a QB. Oakland still seems to care, KC doesn't. I know it's always nervous time when your asking a bad team to win for you, but bad against horrible, bad isn't so bad.Originally posted by wisconsin5473 View PostComment
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I concur, it isn't that I am enamored with the Raiders, I just think the Chefs suck balls and have to be considered a prohibitive dog to any team. Lions sure look like a good pick but I also don't trust them vs the team that beat Pats at Gillette in week 2 or 3. Like I been saying, NFL is so unhandicappable. If you have survived this many land mines to this point then feel blessed and grab any chop that might be offered.Comment
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Well this won't help you much, but the SD players are playing
for their next coach and I'm sure Norv will play the martyr for
all he can. St.Lou has done a great job in keeping their opponents
running game in check for the past four games.
As hart attack noted you've done a great job, but that and $6.00
will get you a cup at Starbucks. The coffee is extra.Comment
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Well, after all was said and done I went with Seat and StL. I wish I could have talked myself into Oak but I just couldn't. I think my mistake was not going with Miami especially since I felt Det would lose. Pool is down to 39, so they still have to make 2 picks this week, but none for me. Thanks for everyone's input on these threads. I will get the info out next year for anyone that wants to get in this pool.Comment
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Sorry man. I wish I could have twisted your arm into Oakland. I got lucky and won my pool today, as we both took Miami, he took Det, I took Oakland. I was set up great if I could get by this week, but luckily didn't have to. Look forward to this next year. Maybe we can have a Bettorsworld Survivor Pool?Originally posted by wisconsin5473 View PostComment
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Too bad. You worked hard for it.
St Louis is still listed "in the hunt" for a playoff spot,
they didn't play like it yesterday.
Nice job Guesser. How much did you collect?Comment
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Didn't mean to pry, but I won a similar size pool a few years ago.
Collected $3,200 and was feeling very proud. A week later the
transmission on my truck went out. The total repair cost was
just under $3,200, so I always reflect on how humbling it is to
get this far. No easy task whatever the payout is.............Comment
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