current line
Notre Dame +9.5 to +10
Alabama -9.5 to -10
total - 40.5 to 41
I'll likely play a 7 pt teaser and I'm thinking at the moment that either ND +16.5 or Alabama -2.5
are probably good choices. The computer simulations appear to be favoring Alabama to win at a
rate of 70-80% of the total simulations but that -2.5 pts still scares me a little as I do think a big play
or two by the ND defense could propel them to a win or maybe a closer than 2.5 pt result at least.
On the other side I just don't think Alabama is going to blow them out either so +16.5 pts looks a
little safer maybe for a team that potentially could pull the upset.
On a teaser I am heavily leaning towards an under. Under 48 preferably but my book has recently
dropped to 40.5 so I may have waited too long. The only thing I see blowing that is more than
a couple TO's that result in quick points, and both defenses certainly have the ability to do that.
The 3 best teams Alabama faced were LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia which resulted in two 4 pt wins
and a 5 pt loss. ND held down a couple pretty good offenses and I guess the Stanford game was
their toughest defensive match-up, but they were a bit spotty on offense so that aspect of their
game is pretty unpredictable. The best defenses they faced were Stanford and Mich St and they were
held to 13 pts in regulation vs Stanford and just 20 vs Mich St. Alabama will be tougher still.
Stanford got after Golson pretty good sacking him 3 times and forcing him to fumble 4 times, losing
3 of them, but that was only Golson's 2nd game I think.
I would appreciate any one else's insight and I am currently awaiting Herbert's choice on this game.
More later.
Notre Dame +9.5 to +10
Alabama -9.5 to -10
total - 40.5 to 41
I'll likely play a 7 pt teaser and I'm thinking at the moment that either ND +16.5 or Alabama -2.5
are probably good choices. The computer simulations appear to be favoring Alabama to win at a
rate of 70-80% of the total simulations but that -2.5 pts still scares me a little as I do think a big play
or two by the ND defense could propel them to a win or maybe a closer than 2.5 pt result at least.
On the other side I just don't think Alabama is going to blow them out either so +16.5 pts looks a
little safer maybe for a team that potentially could pull the upset.
On a teaser I am heavily leaning towards an under. Under 48 preferably but my book has recently
dropped to 40.5 so I may have waited too long. The only thing I see blowing that is more than
a couple TO's that result in quick points, and both defenses certainly have the ability to do that.
The 3 best teams Alabama faced were LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia which resulted in two 4 pt wins
and a 5 pt loss. ND held down a couple pretty good offenses and I guess the Stanford game was
their toughest defensive match-up, but they were a bit spotty on offense so that aspect of their
game is pretty unpredictable. The best defenses they faced were Stanford and Mich St and they were
held to 13 pts in regulation vs Stanford and just 20 vs Mich St. Alabama will be tougher still.
Stanford got after Golson pretty good sacking him 3 times and forcing him to fumble 4 times, losing
3 of them, but that was only Golson's 2nd game I think.
I would appreciate any one else's insight and I am currently awaiting Herbert's choice on this game.
More later.
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