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NFL Over/Under Thread

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  • NFL Over/Under Thread

    Been a member on here for some time, read the threads every week and thought I would try to contribute.

    Be Careful first time posters always (and I mean always are fade material)

    As I discovered last week, there is a non-conference OVER stat (or trend) that had gone 30 Overs to 11 unders this year and went 4 - 0 last week. Add to that, this trend has now gone 11 overs to zero unders in the last 3 weeks.

    Now I know, that trends are only as good as the last game played and if there is a meaningful trend, the books will catch on and adjust accordingly. This may have been proved last week as 3 out of those 4 overs were the result of some very good fortune and some early TD's on early fumbles (notably Oak/NY, Houston/Arizona and St Louis/Indy). Plus the line moved from 41 down to 40 (yes, I did wait) on the Miami/TB game making me a winner at 22-19. But a cash is a cash and it is nice to be on the winning side of luck.

    Keeping this trend in mind, I started looking at the Balt/Chic, Ariz/Jacksonville, Detroit/Pitts and NewE/Carolina games when beginning my research this week. I really believe the books have caught on as these game's total were all posted high. Thankfully the bettors have moved the lines mostly in my favour (if I was to follow trend)

    Balt/Chic: Line opened at 46.5 and now sits at 41...With Cutler hurt, no wonder line has dropped. For Chicago, Over is 4-1 in las 5 games at home vrs teams with losing record and Balt is 5 overs last 6 on grass. But last 4 in series have gone under the total. [B]I'll take the gift of the line movement and take over 41 but probably not over 46.5. May be a teaser over. I see many of you took advantage of this line movement in the weekly NFL contest.

    Ariz/Jacksonville: Line opened at 40, moved up to 41.5 and now sits back at 40...2nd lowest total on board, easy to see why as Under is 7 of 8 last 8 Jags Home games and Under is 5 of last 6 Card road games against losing record teams. I still like the over but may have to tease it to over 34.

    Detroit/Pitts: Line opened at 47.5 and moved to 48 before falling to 44.5. This one puzzles me. As a Lion's fan (tortured) I really wanted to bet this one but the numbers don't give me enough confidence. If played in Detroit, I would be all over the total going over, but not in grass, not in weather and not when the under has cashed in 13 of last 15 Pitt home games and also Under in 4 of last 5 Detroit away games.

    NewE/Carolina: Opened at 44 and has been moved to 46. The non-conference trend is strongest when AFC travels to NFC possibly strengthened on a Monday where the Pats are 4 overs of last 5 Monday night games.

    Divisional games I like include...
    Under 39.5 in Jets/Bills. Windy Weather and trend of 4 of last 6 in series with Bills at home have gone Under total strengthen my opinion.
    Under 49.5 in KC/Denver. I know, Denver is 8 - 0 Over (Last 8) at home vrs team with winning record but Andy Reid of the bye will have this defense ready.Last 5 meetings have gone 4-0-1 Under in series.

    All that aside, my best play on the board appears to be SD/Miami UNDER 45.5. Under is 9 - 0 last 9. 'Nuff said
    2 other plays I will include this week will be Balt/Chic over 41 (weather and Cutler injury scares me) and NEW E/Carolina over 46.

    May all your tickets be winners. Good luck to us, (but mostly me) My advice; Fade the first timer thread starter.

  • #2
    I like that under in San Diego as well.

    Good luck.

    I would probably play the bears over now too. That line dropped a lot. I actually played it in the contest as well but i had mine in before the drastic line move. But wind and rain is tough to cap. Can't blame anyone for grabbing the soft number this morning.

    Let hit this sd under!!


    • #3
      3-1 on overs. 1-1 on unders, correct?

      Barely made it over in a couple of those games and only with the sharp drop from the opening line.

      But worth watching.