Betting Line TBA

3/17/11
 
The top-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers (27-5) will try to bounce back from a disappointing finish in the Big East Conference Tournament when they face the 16th-seeded North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs (20-13) on Thursday in a Southeast Region second-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament at the Verizon Center.  The Panthers were also the top seed in the Big East Tourney but fell victim to #9 Connecticut and star guard Kemba Walker in a 76-74 loss last Thursday.
 
Walker hit the Game-winning shot as time expired, faking out Pitt center Gary McGhee.  The loss overshadowed an otherwise outstanding performance from Panthers guard Ashton Gibbs, who scored a Game-high 27 points on 10 of 13 shooting, including 6 of 7 from 3-point range.  The positive from the loss is that the team has been able to rest a full week before the Big Dance.
 
The same can’t be said for the Bulldogs, who gutted out an 81-77 overtime victory against Arkansas-Little Rock on Tuesday in the First Four at the University of Dayton Arena.  After the Game, they quickly boarded a plane for Washington, D.C.  Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm each scored 22 points to lead Asheville to the win.  Dickey scored 14 of the team’s last 18 points in regulation, including the Game-tying 3-pointer with 10.5 seconds remaining.
 
The Bulldogs have now won seven in a row and finished third in the Big South Conference during the regular season.  They got to the First Four by knocking off top seed Coastal Carolina in the Tournament title Game on March 5, 61-47.  The team jumped out to a 29-22 halftime lead and rolled in the second half, winning as 5-point underdogs.
 
UNC-Asheville has played five lined Games heading into the second round, going 3-0-1 against the spread, with all three covers coming in the Conference Tournament.  The total has gone UNDER in three of the team’s Four postseason Games so far.
 
Before the Big East Tournament, Pittsburgh went 15-3 against Conference foes and closed out the regular season by winning three of their last Four Games both straight-up and ATS.  The Panthers held six of their last seven opponents to 60 points or less with the UNDER cashing each time.  The exception was a 62-59 overtime loss at Louisville that was tied 56-56 at the end of regulation.  The UNDER also was 9-4 in the team’s Games away from home this season, including 2-2 at neutral sites.

Predicted SCore: Pitt 89 NC Asheville 52

2/18/11

Believe it or not we had a very long, detailed write up with 3 or 4 Games ready to go this morning, and lost all of Our work due to a PC crash. %!%*#!!ing computers.
 

We aren’t going to rewrite the entire article so we’ll just go ahead and give you the summary here. We took a look at some Ivy Games along with the Bracket Buster Game between Drexel and Kent State.
 

Princeton vs. Yale – Yale still not out of the Ivy League race and still playing for a post season Tournament birth. They went toe to toe with Princeton in their first Game and have played well at home. We’d lean towards Yale here but Our model says otherwise. Predicted ScorePrinceton 68-63
 

Penn at Brown – We used this Game to illustrate how two teams that appear even on paper and in the won loss column may not be as even as they look. A look at each teams Schedule and you’ll see what we mean. Penn has played a few teams you may have heard of, like Pitt, Villanova, Kentucky and Temple along with a few others. The biggest name on the Brown dance card is fellow Rhode Island resident Providence, a Game which Brown lost by 30 points. That’s why Our model says take Penn tonight. Predicted ScorePenn 75 Brown 67.
 

Harvard at Cornell – A spot where Our numbers have performed well. Picking a dog in a spot like this. The model has this Game even. Tough to trust Cornell here at 6-16 against 18-4 Harvard but remember the bounce back angle. Harvard destroyed Cornell the first time around and seldom to we see a repeat performance in Game two. Predicted ScoreHarvard 68 Cornell 68
 

Kent State at Drexel – Lastly, we used this Bracket Buster Game as an example of how Our model takes Schedule strength into account. Here you have two teams from different conferences that appear dead even on paper, with identical records in the win column. In fact the betting line indicates they are dead even with Drexel being favored by 4.5 to 5 points, which is essentially the home cOurt edge.
 

However, Our model has Drexel by 9 here, indicating that while they may look even, Drexel’s 17 wins are more impressive than Kent State’s. You’ll find far better examples of this from here forward, it’s just that this was the best illustration of this on tonight’s card.
 

Syracuse and Fairfield both have 21 wins. Are they equal? Of course not. That’s obvious. But in many other cases, it’s not so obvious. That’s where a tool like Our model is essential!
 

Predicted Score- Drexel 64 Kent State 55
 

Sorry we don’t have a better article for you today. We initially did…….honestly!
 

Have a good one everyone!

Betting Line: Villanova -4

Big East Basketball Analysis

2/21/11

How did everyone do with the Bracket Buster Games Saturday? Hopefully a winning day for everyone. If you have been using Our Score Predictions, you should have found some nice spots to step in. We go from quite a few potential plays on Saturday to a very sparse card on Monday.
 

But there is one Game worth talking about that Our model suggests may be worth a closer look and that’s Syracuse visiting Villanova tonight at 7 pm est. in Philly.
 

Neither of these teams will be winning the Big East regular season crown so any Conference damage either team does will have to be in the Big East Tournament where both of these teams are capable of taking it. Both have 9 Big East wins. Syracuse is 22-6 on the year while Villanova is 21-6.
 

You could certainly make the argument that Villanova has had the more consistent season despite almost identical win loss records. Their longest losing streak was just two Games and many of their 6 losses were very close. Syracuse on the other hand suffered a 4 Game losing streak and lost 6 of 8 Games before winning their last two. But in their last Game they beat Rutgers by just 4. A team they should have put away easily.
 

You’d have to be a tad leery of Syracuse based on recent play. Perhaps the single most important element in handicapping college hoops come Tournament time is how a team is playing RIGHT NOW, not how they were playing in November and December.
 

That being said, Our model likes Syracuse straight up here and it’s a situation where Our model has been on fire all year, picking a short priced underdog to win straight up. Here we have some added incentive in the form of revenge as Villanova was one of the teams to beat Syracuse during that 4 Game losing streak, in the Carrier Dome. Payback can be sweet in college hoops and what better way to get the team on track heading down the stretch than to right one of their wrongs from the past?
 

The last 3 Villanova home Games were a 3 point loss, a 5 point win and another 3 point loss. This one figures to follow suit. The current number on this Game is Villanova -4 so we’ll go ahead and grab the two buckets here with the Orange in what will likely be a buzzer beater type finish.
 

Predicted scoresyracuse 67 Villanova 66

Betting Preview

Butler Still the Team to Beat

3/1/11

Who could forget last seasons run by Butler, all the way to the NCAA Championship Game only to lose to the mighty Duke Blue Devils. While mo one is calling for a repeat performance by Butler, in the Horizon Conference Tournament, Butler is still the team to beat. They finished 1st, tied with Cleveland State as far as Conference records go at 13-5, but they beat Cleveland State twice during the regular season. Winning the Horizon Tournament won’t be a walk in the park for Butler as they’ll now have a huge bulls eye on their backs however they should have the upper hand.

3/8/11

The 2011 Big 12 Tournament is set to take place at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO. Last year’s winner Kansas is once again the favorite and they will look to add to a tremendous record in which they have won 4 of the last 5 Big 12 Tournaments. Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Kansas (27-2, 12-2) looks poised for another run deep into not only the Big 12 Tournament, but eventually the Big Dance. They rank 1st in the nation in APG and FG%. Twin brothers Marcus (17.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Markeiff Morris (13.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG) are the stars of this team. They have led the Jayhawks to wins over Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas State and Missouri. HC Bill Self looks worth every bit of his $3 million salary with the way this team is playing. They are without a doubt the team to beat playing in their home state behind the strength of the Morris brothers.

After the Jayhawks we believe the Kansas State Wildcats (21-9, 9-6) deserve a big look. Don’t let their record fool you. This is a team that was highly regarded at the start of the season only to stumble early on. They have recovered quite well thanks to HC Frank Martin and star G Jacob Pullen (19.7 PPG, 3.6 APG).  He has been unstoppable at the end of the season, dropping 38 on Kansas and 27 on Nebraska. Pullen is among the very best players in the country. At the time of this writing the Wildcats have won 5 straight at the time of this writing with victories over Kansas, Texas, Missouri and Nebraska. They have the eye of the tiger and are a very hungry team right now.

Texas (24-6, 12-3) has played strong all year long, but towards the end they seem to be running out of gas. They have lost 3 of their last 4 including losses to Nebraska and Colorado. When you are in the top 10 those are teams you have to beat. Nonetheless, with wins over North Carolina, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri and Texas A&M they have to be respected as one of the top dogs. Sophomore swingman Jordan Hamilton (18.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG 40 3P%) is their best scorer.

Texas A&M (22-6, 9-5) and Missouri (22-8, 8-7) have both showed potential. However, both teams have stumbled toward the end of the year. The Tigers lost to Kansas State and Nebraska while the Aggies fell to Baylor. The Aggies won the only meeting between the two teams in overtime. It will take their best play to win the Big 12 Tournament, but they have both got a chance.

Betting Preview and Prediction

3/2/11
 
The Florida State Seminoles (20-8, 10-4 ACC) already own a home win over #4 Duke this season en route to a perfect Conference record at the Donald L. Tucker Center.  The Seminoles will try to finish the home part of their Schedule unbeaten there in league play when they host the 13th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday.
 
In fact, Florida State’s only two losses at home this season came against #1 Ohio State and #14 Florida back in November.  since then, the Seminoles have won their last nine home Games, going 4-1-2 against the spread in the seven that were on the board.  They are also 4-1 in their last five Games since getting blown out in an 89-69 loss at North Carolina on February 6.
 
The lone loss during that stretch came at Maryland 78-62 a week ago.  In the other Four Games, Florida State played outstanding defense, limiting opponents to an average of 61 points.  The Seminoles have seen the UNDER cash three times in their last Four Games and will try to slow the tempo like they did in a 66-61 upset of the Blue Devils back on January 12.  They limited Duke to just 24 first-half points in that Game and held off a late rally after leading by as many as 11 points.

Betting Line: Tennessee -2

3/18/11

The eighth seeded Michigan Wolverines (20-13) are back to the Big Dance for the second time since 1998 and the first time since 2009. They will do battle with the Tennessee Volunteers (19-14). Both of these teams have had tremendous ups and downs and in a normal year they probably would not have been includedin the NCAA Tournament. Ifs and buts do not matter though as they are here and will give it their all to stay alive going forward. Their best Games this year are good enough to knock some teams off down the stretch, but the winner will have their work cut out for them as they will play defending champs Duke in the next round.

Michigan was strong down the stretch winning 9 of their last 13 Games. OUt of Conference they posted wins against Clemson and Harvard. They also beat a scrappy Oakland team. Conference wins came against Michigan, Penn State (twice), Michigan State (twice) and Illinois. They were only 7-9 against NCAA Tournament teams, but did only lose to Syracuse by 3 and took Kansas to OT. Wisconsin beat them by 1 and Ohio State by just 4 points in their first meeting.

Freshman G Tim Hardaway Jr (13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG) leads the charge for Michigan. He posted a career high 30 points in a 3 point win over Iowa last month. If needed he can Scorebig points, despite being a freshman. Sophomore G Darius Morris (15.2 PPG, 6.7 APG) is the most important player on team. He does a great job of distributing the ball.

Tennessee has an experienced team that knows how to win Games, but they are sort of like the book Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which one is going to show up for this Game? The good one or the bad one? They won their first 7 Games including victories over Villanova and Pittsburgh. They beat 30 win Belmont and Vanderbilt twice. This team was 4-7 in their last 11 Games and that is very concerning.

Will Smith from Fresh Prince of Bel Aire look alike SCotty Hopson (17.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG) leads the team in scoring. The junior can really break loose when he is feeling it as he proved by scoring 27 against Pittsburgh. Freshman Tobias Harris (15.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG) will be the x factor. The Volunteers need him to crash the boards and help Hopson get points on the board.

Predicted SCore: Michigan 65 Tennessee 64