That's pretty close. Actually for a 20 cent middle (splitting 10 cents) as I used in my example your break even would be 1 in every 11 games (or 9.1%) because you win 10 cents 10 times and lose 100 once.
For a 25 cent middle as you used in your example your break even would be 1 in every 9 games because you win 12.5 cents 8 times and lose 100 once. 1 in 9 represents a breakeven of 11.1%. If you are assuming 10% pushes, that's not much of an edge, and a 20 cent middle is a long term loser at that assumed percentage. At 7.5% its a pretty good edge.
I think that whoever mentioned you need to look at the percentage of games that actually push at a given number as opposed to looking at the percentage of all games that fall on a given number is correct, and I would want to know those numbers before I committed myself to such a strategy. It would seem like anything 30 cents and above would be a solid edge though. Thanks for sharing the info.
For a 25 cent middle as you used in your example your break even would be 1 in every 9 games because you win 12.5 cents 8 times and lose 100 once. 1 in 9 represents a breakeven of 11.1%. If you are assuming 10% pushes, that's not much of an edge, and a 20 cent middle is a long term loser at that assumed percentage. At 7.5% its a pretty good edge.
I think that whoever mentioned you need to look at the percentage of games that actually push at a given number as opposed to looking at the percentage of all games that fall on a given number is correct, and I would want to know those numbers before I committed myself to such a strategy. It would seem like anything 30 cents and above would be a solid edge though. Thanks for sharing the info.
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