BOOKMAKERS DEBATE....

[MISTY]

"R"MAN, OK, A COLLEGE HOOP LINE MOVES TWO POINTS, WHICH NUMBER IS WEAK AND WHICH ONE IS STRONG. IF YOUR POINT IS THE DEVIANCE FROM THE MARKET PLACE MAKES FOR "WEAK" NUMBERS, THEN ANYONE WITH AN OPINION DIFFERENT FROM THE NORM, WEATHER THEY MOVED FROM THEIR OPENING NUMBER OR NOT, WOULD BE CONSIDERED "WEAK". HELP ME "R"MAN, I FEEL LIKE I'M A CERTIFIABLE IDIOT. MAYBE THE 60'S WERE JUST TOO GOOD TO ME. misty

[MarkDel]

Reality,

While I obviously agree with your general points here concerning "weak" lines and how they have nothing to do with the actual result of the game, I think there's two problems that nobody has touched on:

1. With the proliferation of information in today's high tech world, is it always possible for a bookie to avoid posting a "weak" opening line? What I mean is that the general public and would be sharps often follow steam causing a larger line move than is otherwise justified. Now some of this is solved by "buyback" money, but not enough to make up for wild line swings that were not present years ago as so many books move on "air" rather than house action. I don't think it's always the case that a 2,3 or even 4 point move is automatically the result of a "weak" line, although I see your point that the point change alone makes it a "weak" line by your definition. I just think bookies are put in more no-win scenarios than they were before the explosion of the information age.

2. You said that NFL lines are rock solid, but how much of this is just the result of the greater volume on an NFL game (much from squares) which increases the likelihood that you will come closer to "balanced action?" While a sport like college baskets (especially low profile conferences) is much more likely to produce bad lines, isn't true that the wild point swings are mostly a result of the decreased volume which puts greater emphasis on the "buying power" of sharps?

But I think I should add that if your overall point in this thread was to take the position that weak lines are a greater danger to bookmakers than sharp players, then I would agree with you 100%

[REALITY]

MISTY,

FOR THE LAST TIME.

THE CLOSING LINE IS THE STRONGEST LINE.

IF IT OPENED 6 AND NEVER MOVED THERE WAS NO WEAKNESS OR VALUE FOR THE PRO PLAYER THEREFORE THEY PASSED.

IF IT OPENED 6 AND THE PRO'S HOPPED ON IT -6 DEPENDING ON HOW THEY ARE DOING AT THE TIME THE NEXT NUMBER IS 7 0R 7.5 THE FOLLOWERS DRIVE IT TO 8.0/8.5/OR 9.

THE PRO SCALPERS DRIVE IT BACK TO 8 OR 8.5 AND THE GAME DIES.

REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME THE RIGHT LINE WAS PROBABLY 7.5 OR 8 BECAUSE AT THIS PRICE YOU PROBABLY COULD HAVE WRITTEN TWO WAY BUSINESS WITH A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF EXPOSURE IN THE LINE.

REALITY

[MISTY]

"R'MAN, IF I HANG A NUMBER ON A GAME AND DO NOT MOVE IT, THE NUMBER IS WHAT? YOU'LL BE BACK. misty

[REALITY]

MISTY,

IF YOU HUNG A NUMBER IN THE MORNING AND CLOSED AT THE EXACT SAME NUMBER AT NIGHT YOU MOST LIKELY HAD A NUMBER WHICH ATTRACTED AN EQUAL AMOUNT OF ACTION ON BOTH SIDES.

THAT IN MY OPINION IS A STRONG LINE.

WHEN THE ODDSMAKER MAKES THE LINE HE POSTS AN ARBITRARY NUMBER WHICH DOES NOT REFLECT WHO HE THINKS WILL WIN THE CONTEST BUT A NUMBER THAT WILL DRAW AN EQUAL AMOUNT OF ACTION ON BOTH SIDES.

REALITY

[guidoS]

MISTY

I SHOULDNT PRESUME TO ANSWER FOR BROTHER REALITY, BUT TO FURTHER ANSWER UR ?, IF U HANG A NUMBER ON A GAME AND DO NOT MOVE IT, THAT BETTER MEAN THAT U HAVE WRITTEN APPROXIMATELY EQUAL ACTION ON THAT GAME. IF NOT, AND U HAVE WRITTEN 80-90% ONE WAY ACTION, U HAVE CEASED TO BE A BM AND HAVE BECOME A PLAYER!

NOW MY ? FOR BROTHER REALITY IS THIS. GIVEN THAT THE BIGGEST RISK FOR A BM IS BEING MIDDLED, THAT IS, OPENING 2.5 MOVING TO 3.5 AND GAME ENDING ON 3, HOW MUCH % ACTION DOES IT TAKE TO MOVE THE LINE THIS WAY? ISNT IT BETTER TO GAMBLE SOMETIMES THAN TO TAKE THE RISK OF BEING MIDDLED? AFTER ALL, THE BM IS GONNA WIN HIS FAIR SHARE OF THE GAMBLES, BUT LOSE 80-90% OF THE MIDDLES!

[REALITY]

BROTHER GUIDO,

IF YOU ARE REFERRING TO THE NFL AND YOU WERE HOLDING A 1,000 ON A GAME YOU WOULD MOVE A 1/2 POINT WHEN YOU HAD A 1,000 DECISION EITHER WAY.

ON A 4,6,7,OR 10 YOU WOULD WAIT UNTIL YOU HAD 1,500 OR 150% OR WHAT YOU WANTED TO HOLD ON A GAME.

OFF 3 IN THE NFL THE MOST DANGEROUS NUMBER YOU WOULD WAIT UNTIL YOU HAD 2,OOO OR 200% OF WHAT YOU WANT TO HOLD.

I DONT MOVE OFF 3 IN THE NFL,I ADJUST THE MONEY TO HOW I'M BEING BET.

IN BASKETS WHERE DECISIONS ARE SMALLER THAN FOOTBALL AND THE VOLATILITY OF THE NUMBER IS GREATER,SIDES AND MIDDLES ARE A PART OF THE GAME.

I TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE PICK TO -5 RANGE BECAUSE NUMBERS LAND MORE FREQUENTLY IN THIS RANGE.

BROTHER REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 01-07-2001).]

[Unregistered]

Originally posted by REALITY
F.F.

A GAME THAT OPENS 3 AND CLOSES 7 IS DEFINITELY A WEAK LINE.

THE BEST LINE IS THE LINE THAT MOVES LEAST AND IS STILL ATTRACTIVE TO BETTORS BETTING BOTH THE FAV AND THE DOG.

IN A PERFECT WORLD FOR A B.M.HE POSTS A NUMBER 4 AND WRITES EQUAL ACTION ON BOTH SIDES AND THE LINE NEVER MOVES.

IN A PERFECT WORLD IF A B.M.COULD POST THE CLOSING NUMBER IN THE MORNING HE WOULDN'T NEED A BANKROLL.

IT IS NOT A PERFECT WORLD.

MY DEFINITION OF A WEAK LINE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE END RESULT OF THE CONTEST.

WHAT CONSTITUTES A WEAK LINE TO ME IS A NUMBER THAT IS WEAK AT IT'S INCEPTION AND AS IT IS BET THE GAP BETWEEN THE OPENING AND CLOSING NUMBER GETS WIDER AND WIDER.

AS THE GAP IN THE LINE GETS LARGER THE CHANCE FOR PROFITABILITY GETS SMALLER.

IT IS AN INVERSE PROPORTION.

IT IS THE REASON BIG CLEARING HOUSES LIKE CRIS AND OLYMPIC WHO POST THEIR LINES FIRST ASPIRE TO WIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2%.

THEY NEED TO WRITE IT ALL SO THAT HOPEFULLY THE JUICE CAN OVERCOME THE EXPOSURE IN THE LINE.

BIG POST UP SHOPS ASPIRE TO WIN BETWEEN 3 AND 5% BECAUSE THEY OPEN LATER WITH AN IRONED OUT LINE AND HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF RECREATIONAL PLAYERS.

REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 01-06-2001).]