Las Vegas is not Disneyland, Part 4

[FredCDobbs]

Reno,

I'm curious if you know at what time of day Billy Walters, the Kosher Boys, the LV Poker Players, etc. prefer to put out their plays, and, if so, why they like to place them at those times. Thanks for all the interesting info.

[BBKing]

Reno-

I owe my gambling education in part to Gambler's Book Club, and thought I had read almost everything there. Do you have any idea where to find the Jasper title you mentioned?

Thanks for your slant. Great reading.

[parlay]

reno - i have said this before but i must, again, echo everyone's sentiments in telling you how much i enjoy your posts.

having said that, i have to correct one thing. rocky coppinger. i know who he is and have known for several yrs. he is hardly a journeyman and he has had several major lg starts and was, at one time, the Os #4 starter back when davey johnson was mgr. he got hurt and tried to hide it and wound up hurting himself worse and is still trying to recover.
he was a very late draft pick(mid 20s) i believe but back in '95(i could be off by a yr or so on some of this info), he skyrocketed thru the Os system dominating at A, AA and AAA. the next yr he started at AAA but was soon in the Os rotation. he was a very competitive guy and got into it a few times w/davey. i think davey admired it at 1st but then got pissed and knew the kid was hiding an injury. he missed the rest of that yr and some of the next. last yr, he finally started to look like the old rocky and this yr, he was pitching well in AAA and it was thought, was coming up to claim a spot in the rotation. obviously, he hasn't faired well in his return. i'm not sure if that was the game that he just couldn't throw strikes but i'm rooting for the guy. i like his stuff and his attitude. i followed his career(obviously) and i hope to see him shine in camden yds. all that aside, radke is a stud and there had to be more than the match-up to the move, imo.

[reno]

FredCDobbs, The big betting operations naturally have to play morning games in the morning. Regarding afternoon games, they usually wait until after 3:00 P:M PST. The reason they wait until this time is that many large private bookmakers do not open until then. They usually finish by the 5:00 or 5:30 games, because movers want to send their sportsbook runners home by then. Naturally, these operations watch line movement all day. If the line on a game is moving in their favor, they wait as long as possible before going the other way. If the line movement is negative, in the same direction they plan to go, they come early on the game. Lately, I've been seeing some fairly strong moves at around 2:30 to 2:45, and I don't know whose moves these are.

BBKing, your best bet for finding out about availability of Jim Jasper's book "Sportsbetting" is: 1) Ask Gambler's Book Club. 2)Contact the publisher--St. Martin's Press in New York.

parlay, you have convinced me that I was all wrong about Rocky. In fact, this morning I even went down to the local baseball card shop and traded my Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams rookie cards for one of Rocky's. My deepest apologies if I have offended Rocky, his family, friends, or fans. And the same goes for Bullwinkle.

[LQQKer]

Just a note to Reno's post on % to bet.

Keep track of your pick % by keeping at least a 30 game moving average of your picks. Plot 'em down and take a straight edge and get an idea of your long term pick %. If you're good and like most folks, you'll be between 51-54%. At 55% you have a 5% advantage after the vig, so 5% of your bankroll should go on each bet. 54% equals a 3% advantage, 53% is a 1% advantage.

Word to the wise, if you don't do this, you're looking at disaster. The smart set do this in their heads basically, but the average guy needs to take a hard look at how well he really is picking. I've known too many guys who think they're picking better than what they really are.

[FredCDobbs]

Reno,

2:30-2:45pm is usually when the lineups are first posted for the 4pm games. In watching line movements, it looks like trends can often be figured out soon after the lines open. So why would these groups usually wait until after 3 pm to play? Or did you mean that they do this only if the lines are moving in the direction that would give them a better price by waiting?

[parlay]

reno - thought you might appreciate the info but i guess not. i like your knowledge about how things work and the inside info but if you think rocky coppinger mived a line vs. brad radke, you are mistaken.

[parlay]

mived, moved ---- what's the difference?

[freak]

thanks reno

just wanted to get some insights on the behind the scenes action.

I am most curious on how they figure a game to be a steam... is there certain things they are looking for or ???

would a -200 favorite be a steam ???

or are they looking for a value line say -130 or less...

ok where is a good place to track line movements if there is such a place. I mean you can get lines anywhere but to see how they have moved say in the last hour or 15 minutes etc etc....

thanks again appreciate the insights...

[reno]

FredCDobbs, as I earlier stated, the reason that large betting operations generally wait until after 3:00 P:M PST to play is that some very large private bookmakers do not open until then. If these operations put out their plays before these BMs open, they would not be able to get the original lines from these BMs, becauses these BMs would open with an updated line. Thus, the large betting groups, in order to get as much money as possible down at the original number, wait until all books are open, and
then hit everyone at once.

Freak, there is no single reason that a games steams. Each group or tout uses different criteria for determining plays.

Whether a game is -200 or -130 makes no difference. The question is perceived value. For example, if Roger Clemens is pitching at home against Baltimore, with our ol' buddy Rocky Coppinger going, then -200 is way too low on Clemens. The line will rightly be over -300 on Clemens. Again, steam is movement; it has nothing to do with how high or low a line is. If you want to witness steam, sign up with Don Best.

[Don Best]

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[Heath]

I can say from experience that steam can be "sharp" or "stupid" - depending on the sport. Experience tells me that ANY sport where there are low scoring frequencies and a small sample size of teams - i.e. BASEBALL, PRO HOCKEY, the NFL - you are wasting your time trying to form an "opinion". In other words, taking a side is probably an exercise in futility. Sports like the NBA, or even NCAA sides and totals seem to be where the money can be made year in and year out by following the "moves". The most important thing here is to see where the move originates, what time it originates, how much it moves, and when during the season it moves. Also is important how it moves. Does it move in half point increments, or do you see a masive jump, say a NBA total moving from 188 to 185-? If its early in the year, and its 6:45pm eastern, and this move goes across the board - you're looking at a pretty strong play from some well heeled, well informed investors. Of course, by the time all this happens - there's no where to bet.

If you've been betting for years, and lost or broke even and have a bunch of local outs - Do your self a favor get a top line service and go ahead and finish those guys off. Most folks have a ton of local places to play because they are lifetime loosers. You can end this real quick unless all your local guys use a "screen" - which I found to be a rarity here in the good old south. Eventually, you'll have no place local to bet, but it will be fun pounding their brains in for a few months until they cut you off.

My only advice after this would be to take what you've made and learned and try to apply it offshore. Secure a ton of outs and try to do some scalping. If you can develop a good opinion, then back it with money.

I am of the firm belief that its almost impossible to make long term money no matter how close to the source of the steam you are. Why? You'll get cut off, jerked around and "stalled" (on getting a number - not on getting paid) by the gutless offshore folks. This is assuming you are beating them to a number. They are scared to death of anyone that can get a number before they do. I don't care what ANY bookmaker says - you beat them to a number consistently and you'll get dropped with a quickness.

Don Best is good - but you're not going to be able to use it and beat any offshore house to a number. If you're not on standby or at first call from a steam room, the best thing you can do is borrow a few million and go offshore like everyone else and try to be a bookmaker, or devote your life to forming an opinion and then back it with some serious capital.

Having 18 outs helps, I guess - as long as they are all dealing different numbers. What I see more and more is the whole world dealing the same line. 18 outs is no good if they've all got the same price on every game.

Hope this helps, or somehow contributes to the conversation - Heath.

[randyrohm]

Good post Heath, It is getting worse everyday with the books having the same numbers. I agree what good do my 10 outs do if 7 are carbon copies? A couple of my local outs will only take a bill or two but I have to take it because it one of the few places to beat the number. I haven't played much online, but I guess there are some lazy numbers there waiting to be updated. The search goes on.

[reno]

Heath, you bring up some interesting points that I will address:

1) I would agree that, generally speaking, the sharpest steam in sportsbetting is in college baskets and NBA totals. This particularly holds true early in the basketball season. My take is that basketball, of all sports, is the most vulnerable to sharp, perception-based handicappers. And, early in the season they have an edge over the linesmaker, who, since he is more mathematically based, needs more games to refine his lines. Historically, as the basketball season progresses, the steam moves do progressively worse. As the statistical reality begins to mirror the perceived reality, a sharp, perception-based handicapper's edge begins to decline.

2) I do not agree with you about the NFL and baseball being especially tough to beat. These two sports are great for mathematically-based handicappers. Mathematicallly-based handicappers are at a disadvantage in baskets because it is relatively easy to make a mathematically correct betting line in hoops. I currently only do baseball because I don't need to or feel like working all year round.
If I felt I could make more in baskets, then I would only do that sport instead of baseball.

3) Playing with local privates is a double-edged sword. You can beat them on the steam and get great numbers, but the risk of getting stiffed is high.

4) Compared to last baseball season, there is noticeably less variation in the offshore betting lines. Some of my 18 outs who are "tweeners," where I seldom find a different line, will soon be ex-outs for me.

[Heath]

Reno -

1 - I'd say that generally, by the NBA all-star break, one could safely quit betting the NBA moves. I agree that they get worse as the season progresses, but the groups still keep plugging away - which is interesting to me. Why break even year after year for the last half of the season? Makes more sense to quit, but maybe their egos get involved. I dunno.

2 - I think its great if you can beat the NFL and MLB. You're probably 1 out of 2000-3000 sports bettors that can. You make a great point about only betting bases - taking time off is paramount to not getting burned out. Baseball can offer some great scalping opps, and I would recommend that the avg sports bettor pursue this instead of throwing their money at the books. You could educate the world if you wanted to - wouldn't matter. The high turnover rate of fresh idiots will keep the bookmaker with a solid customer base rich for life - no matter what we do or don't say here.

3 - I suggested locals for the folks that have helped keep them in a new Lincoln every year.

4 - The steadfast refusal to gamble that is embodied by most bookmakers will be their demise (for many, any way). Why go to shakeybookmaker.com and bet when you can go to one of the big shops and the get the same lines? Its amazing to me why some people end up getting stiffed by some of these places. Why bother? Their all on a screen, and they all move their numbers on "air", and they all peddle the same numbers. If you're a bookmaker, there is nothing wrong with not moving a line 5 or 10 cents or .5 or 1 point for the sake of HANDLE. Most bookmakers are obsessed with moving the numbers. If I was a bookmaker, I'd be obsessed with HANDLE. I'd take a bet on everything that moved, and I'd stick on a number a little bit longer. I wouldn't be afraid to go from 9un30 to 8- flat on a MLB total. Why go to 9un50? Make it 8- ov20 or something and let 'em bet. The world may pass at 9un50, but put up a 8ov20 and you'll get some play.

I can understand the fear of coming off a 3 or 7 in foots. However, many bookmakers wouldn't dream of going to the john without their crutch - their "Screen".

The bookmaker should busy himself with putting as many solid numbers as he can up, and making sure he doesn't over extend his bankroll.

There's nothing worse than getting run down, and every number matches every other book in the world. Some bookmakers deserve to be broke due to their fear.

Pardon the rant.

Heath