Early NFL

[jpehl]

I need a little help this week. Actually i need a couple of you guys to put me in my place. Ive got thick skin so let me have it. Im looking at the Colts/Cowboy game just seeing green. Ive had this game marked since the schedule came out.
I was scared about the cards game last week because there were endless reports coming out of valley ranch that Parcells was looking ahead to the Colts game. Im thinking that the Cowboys match up pretty damn good with the colts. Ellis was a huge loss for us but i dont think it will matter. I think Glynn didnt play last week because Parcells held him out due to this game. The deep threat was kind of solved with the return of Keith Davis.Its hard for me to say that Romo will crack under pressure, as I dont believe the colts can give the pressure that he has already seen. My only concern is that Dallas limit the penalties as you cant give Peyton any more of an advantage. Indy is plagued with injuries so far. Dallas hasnt put together two consecutive wins this season. I look for that to change this week. Cowboys also play pretty damn well before Thanksgiving.
This line is tricky as I cant believe that it opened up so low. Kind of fishy to me. the orld will be all over indy in this game. It gives me an even better reason. Maybe im going to get caught with my hands in the cookie jar but it want be the first time.
I watched Parcells press conference today and have never seen him as confident as he was today. We ran into a hot giants team at home that has finally cooled off. With the giants loss last week it opened our division up again. The cowboys have nothing to lose, there expected to lose this game. The cowboys are one of the best teams in the league when playing as underdogs. Im going to wait and let all the colts backers run this line up at least another point before i jump on it. Im waiting till Saturday and im going to pound the cowboys with my biggest play so far. Okay that said let me have it, tell me your thoughts dont hold back anything.
jpehl

[Boone Moone]

I don't believe it, Jpehl.........You remind me exactly of myself when we were flying up to the Raider games on a regular basis in the early 2000"s...........I couldn't sleep, I couldn't eat, and when I did, I'd have to run to the bathroom right away, or find a bush to get sick in.....my stomach wouldn't settle until after the 1st quarter or so.......I use to take this stuff that seriously.......Of course I'm still a staunch Raider fan, but since Gruden left, it has never been the same......Sure, Bill Callahan took them to the Superbowl, but that was Gruden's playbook, and that's why he knew every play before we broke the huddle......and Norv Turner, well his record speaks for itself.......so much for my misery.

This game coming up Sunday is Dallas's season.........No, they don't have to win to keep pace with the Giants (since they're in for a rough one Monday night at Jacksonville)........or even the Eagles who figure to have it easy this weekend.........Dallas could lose this weekend and still only be one game out in the standings..........So like you said, there is definitely no added pressure on these guys...........But the reason I say that this is thier season, is because to them, it's like a mini-Superbowl to have a chance to knock off the NFL's only undefeated team in front of the home fans.........They will not be any higher for a game this season.....and the oddsmakers know this.

So I guess what I'm saying, is to go ahead and pull the triggger, what are you afraid of?.........If you're right you'll have something to brag and celebrate about for the rest of the week, if you're wrong.........well, it won't be the first time and definitely won't be the last..........I don't want you to go out and rob a bank or anything like that, but I was actually thinking of posting the Cowboys up as my contest play for the week, and still might.....but I got a feeling there are some easier ones than this.

One last note from my long-winded ass.......Don't second-guess yourself........I wanted to post Carolina and the Under for last night's game after telling my brother (He calls me before every nationally televised NFL game for the play) that the final score would be 24-6 or 24-3 Carolina.......but I didn't want to post it after being wrong on Sunday night with the Giants......I think sometimes we take ourselves too seriously is what I'm trying to say.......Just have fun with it..........I even read another fellow member stating last week that he always seems to hit on 4 out of 5 picks, but always seems to post up his ONE loser for his contest pick..........That's just the way it goes, so it might be best to play all games equally, and hope to hit more winners than losers......period..........Good Luck guys.

[widestrides]

Any other team and any other QB and I'd say you got a great bet with Dallas. But Peyton Manning is revolutionizing the game. He's such an advantage. He's taking the full play clock to size up the defense, prevent them from bringing in their special situation players and then call the best possible play! No one else does that and has that kind of an advantage. And no one else can do it as wisely as he does.

But Indy is banged up and vulnerable on D. And Dallas is going to be sky high. It even sounds like Dungy wouldn't mind losing one to take the undefeated pressure off. He won't be playing anyone hurt the rest of the season. So Indy will not be as up for this one as they were for Denver and New England. But Peyton is always up for a challenge and he can be enough. If you could get +3 it would be a much safer bet. I doubt that it will go that high.

I liked Indy against Denver and New England, but stayed away from them last week against Buffalo. I won't be picking this game this week, but gun to my head, I'd go along with you with Dallas based on Dallas having the emotional edge and Indy's weaker D and injury situation. I think the line is about right. In my opinion, Dallas is a good bet but not the Lock of the Year due to the Peyton factor.

Can Dallas put the kind of pressure on Peyton that SD and Pitt did last year? Or can they outscore him? Will Vanderjagt make or miss the winning field goal against his old mates?

Good luck!

[dragon1952]

There is a reason Indianapolis is 9-0 this year and there is a reason why they were 13-0 last year and didn't lose until they had home field advantage clinched.
They are 23-2 in their last 25 regular season games and could probably have been 25-0 if there had been enough motivation. The two teams they lost to last year were the 10-6 Chargers, who were way better than that record indicates, and the Super Bowl participant Seahawks. Both happened to be meaningless games for the Colts. The Colts are 47-10 in the regular season going back to 2003. Out of the 10 games they have lost, 4 were end of year, fairly meaningless games. Those 10 losses were also against very good teams....Denver twice, San Diego twice, Jacksonville twice, New England twice, Kansas City and Carolina (in OT). They have won twice this year as road underdogs with their current 'banged up' team. They are 1 pt favorites against the Cowboys....basically a 'pick-em'. Dallas is 5-4 this year and their 5 wins could hardly scare anyone.....Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina and Arizona. The Carolina game could be considered the most impressive so far, but how on earth anyone could considering betting on anyone other than the Colts to win in this game is beyond me.
Personally, I can't stand Peyton Manning or the Colts, but facts are facts.

[jpehl]

Im really waiting untill Saturday to see how hard the public hits the colts.i know its early still but the numbers are 87% in favor of colts. With little over 5600 bets coming in. Come on you really think the books are going to stand to lose this much money on this game. This game is the highest bet game so far and i dont see signs of it letting up. Maybe im wrong wouldnt be the first time.
Just to clear things up I know most of you guys know that my intent with this post is just to let you know what I am doing and I in no way hope to persuade any one. I dont think that i deserve any credit at all on this forum. One last thing keep up the post I like to hear what you have to say. Keep them coming.
Thanks
jpehl

[woodee12]

Just read somwhere that Pinny had 7 times more bets on the Colts after they put the line out. they opened Dallas -1. But they did say they have some sharp action on Dallas too.

[jpehl]

And no movement. Kind of strange. you got to ask yourself what do they know that I dont. Are they going to take a loss like that?

[Boone Moone]

Well, just like this game is very active here on the forum, it is obviously attracting quite a bit of activity with the sportsbooks...............But when one notes that "87% of the action" is on the Colts, or that the Colts are being bet 7 times to every 1 for Dallas, does this mean bet-wise or money-wise..........In other words, what if there were 100 bets on the Colts -- for $1,000 each and ONE bet on Dallas for $100,000 ........See what I'm asking?..........Because if it was in regards to how much money was actually being bet, then the line would have moved a lot more than it has......just curious.

[jpehl]

That is a good question that i have not been able to find out. Maybe someone else can chime in and answer this.
jpehl

[woodee12]

heres the part of the article I read--good point on the number of bets vs. actual volume beacuse they could be $10 bets too. This game is probably a no play for me but will be fun to watch either way!


The Palms Hotel in Las Vegas was one place that opened the Colts -1.

“As long as the Colts are undefeated, I’m going to favor them,” says Steve Ferrero, a sportsbook supervisor and oddsmaker at the Palms. “Dallas has had steady public support. I think that’s why you didn’t see them (the Colts) favored (at some books right away).”

Ferrero says the Colts aren’t as big a public team as some may think pointing out last week’s game against the Patriots when it was New England who drew most of the money instead of Indianapolis.

“Everyone was on New England,” Ferrero says. “It has been four weeks in a row and bettors have been all over Dallas at our place. Every week the move comes on Dallas. It’s been steady.”

Some believe the Colts are due for a loss after beating Tennessee by one point and last week edging Buffalo by one point with both victories at home. Dallas, on the other hand, looked impressive steamrolling the Cardinals on the road.

Dallas has outscored its opponents by 76 points yet are just one game above .500. The Colts have outscored their foes by 60 points.

Pinnacle was the rare sportsbook that opened the Cowboys -1.

“The early action mainly has been on Indy,” says Simon Noble, bet shop manager for Pinnacle. “A few large bets on Dallas have come in, but there are seven times as many bets on the Colts.”

[Boone Moone]

Thanks Woodee.........that explains it.

[jpehl]

I know i keep beating a dead horse on this one but theres 15000 bets and 87% in favor of Indy. Is there any reason this line isnt moving other then Vegas thinks they have capped this game pretty well. I would think they would want more people to pick Dallas but for now it doesnt look that way.
jpehl

[Boone Moone]

Do what you gotta do on this game Jpehl.......Just don't put all of your eggs in one basket..........I know Dallas is your team, but there are 12 other games on the Sunday menu.......If they win, you'll be happy enough with that, don't let it spoil or dictate your weekend........Trust me, I'm a horse player.......And I can't count how many times I've gone to the track and hit 3 or 4 horses that I had $40 or $50 bucks on that won, and the one I put $800 or $1,000 on, is still running.........It's just another game......Play what you can afford to lose, and kick back and enjoy it.............If Dallas pulls off the miracle, the smile on your face will be worth more than anything you might collect.............Good Luck pal.

[brink]

jpehl,



You have to remember, the percentage of bets on one team is irrelevant. It's the money that counts.



The Colts are a public team big time. Any undefeated team will draw big public action, but even more so with the Colts and Manning with all the commercials, etc.etc.



There's plenty of sharp action on the Cowboys to balance out all the $20 and $30 bets that are a part of the 87%.



Also remember this. Bookmakers, especially in Vegas, Don't gamble. They would never take a stand on a game because they think they have the right number. If they did, they would be out of business. (professional bettors are light years ahead of Vegas numbers/oddsmakers.) Money dictates everything.

[jpehl]

Man this line is really starting to confuse me. Now Dallas is favored by 1. I was planning on unloading some zeros on this game. Boone your right. Its bad enough when the boys lose for me i dont know why I should put such a heavy wage on this game. Man im braking all my rules if I go through with the original plan. I knew i would begin to start second guessing my self the longer i waited. Im going to have to rethink this. Someone take a look at this line and how its moved and tell me what you think. To me it looks like they are begging people to pick Indy. I actually have this game capped at 27 24 Dallas. Someone tell what you think about the line movement on this game.Once again thanks for everyones response.
jpehl