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  • #16
    If you are going to pick this game correctly, it won't be based on the line movement. It will be based on your analysis of the two teams. Does anyone think that the movement of the line will accurately predict the actual outcome of this or very many games. Maybe for some games line movement can be a tip-off, but I think it is safe to assume that this game is fairly capped. That is, this game could go either way. It's not like there is something about this game that not everyone knows. UNLESS you REALLY feel you know that Dallas has what it takes and will bring to the game what it takes to win more decisively than 27-24. But, if you honestly have it capped at 27-24 Dallas, then this may not be a game or an opinion worth wagering ANY amount on. Or just wager a little for fun. Go big only if you firmly believe Dallas is gong to win convincingly, maybe because Indy is banged up and will let up after a couple big games and a 9-0 start or whatever you see that you feel differs significantly from the line.

    That's the BW Key Releases philosophy. Go for it only when you feel you have a distinct advantage with the line - when the line is significantly overrating or underrating one of the teams or it is not taking into account something that you see. This does not seem to be the case in this game. If I can envision a game going either way, then I stay away, unless I just want to play a hunch for a small amount and enjoy.

    IMHO, this game is one of those that could go either way, UNLESS one feels Indy will just not show up fully, due to injuries, emotional fatigue, visitor status, etc., or that Dallas will just be that much higher emotionally.

    Good luck, because that is exactly what might decide this game one way or another. Luck however usually prefers the home team. Ever notice that? Also, this could come down to Vinatieri vs Vanderjagt again - only this time with different teams. Do you want to make a wager on who will win it if it just comes down to those two?

    Geez I hope the actual game is as much fun as trying to predict it.

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    • #17
      Very nice write up. On the other hand I cant believe Im letting you guys talk me out of this. I know your not talking me out it im talking myself out of it. You guys have brought up some very valid points that I can not argue with. Vegas really sniffed this one out on me. I was looking forward to a 3-5 point spread in favor of Indy. I was just waiting then they drop this line on me and it totally confuses the crap out of me. Yeah i expected to out think myself on this one.Truthfully as I thought about it last night I was breaking all my rules. That usually never ends on a positive note. Not saying ive decided to lay off this game but i need to rethink this out. Really all i need is for Lang to come out and pick Indy as his 100 dime winner. That would seal the deal for me. If you dont follow his picks you really might not know what im saying. Anyways thanks again to all who responded .
      jpehl

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      • #18
        PULL THE TRIGGER JPEHL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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