MLB Baseball--Plays and discussion

[woodee12]

1-2 for me as the Cards tried to blow it but Ludwick homered in the 11th after the bullpen blew it again. ISSI CANNOT CLOSE! I still think the cards are a good go against with thier bullpen probs.

Wednesday--

Dodgers -130 over STL...see above.

Pirates +185 over AZ...The unit is not worthy of this price anymore.

Padres +165 over Mets....Same as above with Pedro.

Cubs/Stros OVER 10 (1/2 unit)...Marquis/Backe

Twins -125 over Seattle...Jumped on Seattle the last 2 days for winners but it stops today.

Thats all for now. Like LAA too--may play them on the RL again.

[dragon1952]

Well I went 2 for 3 on the parlay. Looked good late in the Sea/Min game but the Twin bullpen blew it again vs the suddenly game Mariners.

Wednesday Aug 6

2-team parlay #1
Pittsburgh @ Arizona UN 9 -115 - (Karstens 1-0, 0.00 vs Johnson 9-7, 4.35) Randy Johnson has only given up 5 runs total over his last 5 starts and has racked up 25 K's to only 2 BB over that period. He hasn't given up a single run over his last 3 starts, a stretch of 20 innings. Not much to go on with Karstens, a recent acquisition from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady trade, but in his first start as a Pirate he did hold the red-hot Cubs to no runs on just 5 hits over 6 innings.....on the road. The D'backs have had a couple scoring outbursts lately, but have been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. And the Pirates are going without a few very key players in OF Nate McLouth (rest), catcher Ryan Doumit (rest) and 3B Andy LaRoche (injury).
Atlanta @ San Francisco OV 7 -120 - (James 2-4, 9.47 vs Lincecum 11-3, 2.71) - Will go with the over again in this match-up as it worked well yesterday when the teams exploded for 15 runs combined. James has given up between 5-6 runs in his 3 road starts this year. Lincecum has given up between 3-5 runs 5 times over his last 9 starts, so he's not un-hittable. Plus, the over is 13-3 in S.F.'s last 16 home games.

2-team parlay #2
Washington @ Colorado OV 9.5 -120 - (Perez 4-8, 4.16 vs Francis 3-7, 5.67) - Both teams have higher batting averages by almost 20 pts each vs lefties. Both pitchers give up their share of HR's, with both given up 5 each over their last 4 games and an average of around 1.5 per 9 innings. And in a hitter's park to boot. The first 2 games in this series have exceeded 10 runs. Somebody should score here.
Toronto -130 vs Oakland - (Marcum 5-5, 3.57 vs Gio Gonzalez 0-0, 0.00) - Oakland 2-17 in their last 19 games and going with an unknown commodity in Gonzalez.

[woodee12]

4-1 on posted plays with both of the big dogs winning but the Didgers losing to the cards.

I alos played LAA -1.5 and won that, but lost on Detroit on a bigger pay than usual. Verlander pitched well but gave up a 3-run shot in the 1st and the tigers could not score. Game was closer than the score indicated.

I am going to jumpo back on the Dodgers as +120 dogs today at STL. Lohse is on the mound for the Cards but I feel a let-down spot here for him and Larussa is a preacher of winning series, so he may rest a few guys before the big Cubs series this weekend.

La Dodgers +120 over STL (Double unit play)

[dragon1952]

I went 1-1 on Parlay #1 and I won with Toronto on parlay #2 as a straight play as the Col/Was game was postponed.

Thursday Aug 7

straight bets

Tampa Bay +121 @ Seattle - (Sonnanstine 11-6, 4.58 vs Hernandez 7-7, 3.04) - The Rays are on another little hot streak here winning 7 of their last 8 games. Seattle is 3-3 on their current home stand losing 2 of 3 to the Orioles and then winning 2 of 3 from the Twins with a couple of come from behind wins. They got to the Twins bullpen to the tune of 8 runs in those 2 wins. Actually a pretty close pitching match-up here, with Hernandez actually looking a little stronger stat-wise. But the bottom line is, Seattle still has the worst record in MLB at 44-70.
Toronto -117 vs Oakland - (Burnett 13-9, 4.57 vs Duchscherer 10-7, 2.33) - Oakland is 2-18 in their last 20 games and have now lost 9 in a row. During their 9 game losing streak they have been held to 3 runs or less every time, and 2 runs or less in 7 of them. Toronto has won the first 3 games of this series , out-scoring the A's 15-5. A.J. Burnett is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and 7-2 over his last 9 starts. Toronto is also 13-4 in their last 17 home games.

2-team parlay
Arizona -158 vs Atlanta - (Petit 1-2, 3.03 vs Morton 2-5, 6.56) - Petit has given up just 2 runs on only 5 hits in 2 home starts this year. In his last start, on the road in L.A., he was unfortunate enough to run into the two newcomers as Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake both took him deep in a 4-2 loss. But he still just gave up 3 runs on 5 hits over 5 innings. The Braves are just 2-6 in Morton's last 8 starts, although one of the wins was fortunate as he got tagged for 6 runs in that one. The Braves are in a bit of a funk and are just 3-9 in their last 12 games. Chipper Jones remains on the bench with strained hamstring.
Colorado RL -1.5 EVEN vs Washington - (Jimenez 8-9, 3.61 vs Perez 4-8, 4.16) - Jimenez has been on fire lately winning 4 starts in a row and 6 of his last 7. In his last 3 starts he has only given up 1 run total on just 11 hits over 22 innings. During his current 4 game winning streak the Rockies have out-scored opponents 31-6. With Washington's injury depleted line-up they may have a less-than 100% and/or tired team out there for game 2 of today's doubleheader.

[woodee12]

Going to take a shot with the Cards at that doggy price. Don't think Lilly is good enough to be favored by that much in such a rilvary game that means so much.

[dragon1952]

1-1 on the straight bets as Seattle pulled out another late inning win to beat my Rays. Lost both games on the parlay. Still 10-5 on my last 15 straight bets. 6-10 last 16 parlays.

Friday August 8
straight bets
Royals +125 vs Minnesota - (Davies 5-2, 4.41 vs Slowey 7-8, 4.21) - After dropping 2 of 3 to Seattle, the Twins are now just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. Slowey had a great complete game shutout of the White Sox at home 2 starts ago, but in his other 4 most recent starts he gave up 20 runs with 5 HR's over just 21 innings. Davies has won 2 home starts in a row and is 2-1 with 2 no decisions over his last 5 starts, all at home. He's pitched well enough to win in all of them, giving up no more than 3 runs per start and just 12 runs over 27 innings, but hasn't got the run or bullpen support in a couple of them. The Royals are 3-3 on their current home stand and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. The Twins are 7-2 vs the Royals this year, including 5-1 at KC, but they have not faced Davies.

Colorado +108 vs San Diego - (Rusch 4-3, 5.47 vs Peavy 8-7, 2.59) - Glendon Rusch gets a shot at the team that dumped him. Peavy has faced the Rockies twice this year, both times at home, going just 0-1 with a no decision, but just giving up 3 runs over 14 innings. But I can't get over that ugly 19-37 road mark. Also, the Padres are batting just .237 as a team vs lefties this year. This Brian Giles deal can't be helping the Pads much either. Maybe a close game but I like the home dogs to get off the schneid here vs a lousy road team.

2-team parlay #1
Pittsburgh +166 @ Philadelphia - (Maholm 7-7, 3.95 vs Blanton 1-0, 4.80) - Blanton has pitched a little better since coming over from Oakland, but of course he gets better run support here. I still don't trust him though as he can get hammered. And Maholm did have a great game vs the Phillies back at the end of April where he went the distance giving up just 1 run on 2 hits. I'm going to go against Blanton one more time and see what happens. I'll just put it on a parlay though.
Angels -131 vs Yankees - (Weaver 9-9, 4.37 vs Kennedy 0-3, 7.41) - Ian Kennedy returns to the majors to start for the first time since 5/27. The Yankees were just 1-5 in Kennedy's 6 road starts prior to his being sent down. Kennedy pitched to a 7.46 ERA in those games. Angels are 10-3 their last 13 home games. Angels have gone 9-4 vs the Yankees in Anaheim since the 2005 season. The teams have split 4 match-ups this year, all played in NY. The Yanks hit Weaver pretty hard in that series so I'm sure he'll be extra motivated in this one. NY is 2-2 on their current road trip, splitting that series with Texas.

2-team parlay #2
Dodgers @ Giants OV 8 -125 - (Penny 5-9, 5.88) vs Zito 6-13, 5.40) - Penny has been getting hit hard in going 0-7 with a no decision over his last 8 starts. He's given up 41 runs on 59 hits in just 43 innings over that stretch. In his last 3 road starts he's given up 17 runs on 25 hits over just 13.2 innings. And Barry Zito is certainly worth a few runs as the Dodgers are batting .275 as a team vs lefties this year. Zito did pitch a fine game vs the Dodgers last month but that was without Juan Pierre, Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake in the line-up.
NY Mets -136 vs Florida - (Perez 7-7, 4.12 vs Nolasco 11-6, 3.91) - I'm going to play the lefty angle again in this match-up as the NY Mets, as a team, are now 5-0 vs the Marlins this year when they start a left-hander. Perez is 2-0-1 and Santana is 2-0. The Marlins team batting average drops 30 pts, from .261 to .231 when facing lefties. The Mets have out-scored the Marlins 36-12 in those 5 games. Perez had a great 6 game stretch going, where he only gave up 6 runs total over 40 innings, until the Astros tagged him for 4 runs in 6 innings last time out. Still, over his last 3 home starts he's only given up 3 runs total on just 11 hits. The Mets also have the nice 34-21 home record going for them.

[woodee12]

Like that Riockies play--I am on it too.

Alos like:

Dodgers -120 over SF

Atlanta UNDER 9

Oakland Under 9.5

Short on time. I ahte edmonds and the CUBS!

[woodee12]

3-2 for me on friday--

Saturday

Tigers -1.5 over Oakland

reds/astros OVER 9.5

Nats +200 over Brewers

[dragon1952]

Friday recap - Went 1-1 on the straight bets and hit both parlays, although there was a push on parlay #2 with the Giant/Dodger total.

Saturday Aug 9

straight bets

Royals +102 vs Minnesota - (Greinke 9-7, 3.93 vs Liriano 1-3, 7.16) - The Twins appear to have the Royal's number this year winning 8 of the 10 match-ups so far. But Greinke has been very good at home in pitching to a 4-1 record with an excellent 2.93 ERA over nine starts. The Royals are 7-2 overall when he starts at home. Greinke faced the Twins back on 5/28 and pitched 8 strong innings, leaving the game with an 8-3 lead. But the bullpen blew it big-time letting Minnesota tie and then win it in extra innings. Liriano has had one start since his return from his demotion to the minors as he beat Cleveland at home, going 6 innings and giving up no runs on just 3 hits. In a previous April start at KC, he got knocked out in the 4th inning after giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and issuing 5 walks. In his only other road start this year, he didn't even make it through the 1st inning as Oakland jumped on him for 6 quick runs on 5 hits and 3 walks. So far this year he's issued 16 walks in his 16.1 innings of work.

Colorado RL -1.5 +115 vs San Diego - (Cook 14-7, 3.68 vs Maddux 5-8, 4.17) - The Padres, owners of the worst road record in MLB at 19-38, face old-time nemesis Aaron Cook who is 10-3 vs them lifetime. In two starts vs San Diego this year, Cook has gone 16 innings giving up just a single run on 8 hits. Maddux has faced the Rockies twice this year also, going 2-0, but in his last start in Colorado he got smacked around for 8 runs on 8 hits in just 4.2 innings. The Pads are dealing with some injuries (SS Khalil Greene, C Josh Bard, C Michael Barrett) and the replacements are barely hitting .200 thus far. Also some drama going on with them looking to dump one of their better players in Brian Giles. Probably not a real popular move in the clubhouse or with the fans. Colorado won last night's game 6-3 so looking for a similar result tonight.

2-team parlay
Dodgers -140 @ Giants - (Kuroda 6-8, 4.21 vs Correia 2-6, 5.53) - Correia got the 7-6 win in L.A. on 7/28 going against Kuroda despite giving up 6 runs (4 earned) over just 5.1 innings. Kuroda had a bad game giving up all 7 runs in just 3.2 innings. But Kuroda came back with a strong outing his next start vs Arizona, getting the win and going 7.1 innings, giving up a single run on just 4 hits and striking out 6. The Giants are just 3-10 in Correia's 13 starts this year, including 2-4 at home. I'll look for Kuroda to avenge his awful performance last time, and Manny, who was not around for that game, to add to the carnage.
Arizona -156 vs Atlanta - (Haren 12-5, 2.75 vs Jurrjens 10-7, 3.12) - Arizona is 12-2 in Haren's last 14 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Haren just signed a new 4 year contract so he should be motivated to show them his appreciation. Atlanta lineup getting healthy again with Jones and McCann back, but will look for Haren to get his team back on track, as usual.

[dragon1952]

Adding:

Houston +111 @ Cincinnati - (Moehler 7-4, 4.01 vs Arroyo 10-8, 5.55) -
The Reds are in the tank winning just twice in their last 14 games. The Astros just recently tagged Arroyo pretty good scoring 6 runs on 8 hits in 6.1 innings, including a couple of dingers by Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee who went a combined 4 for 8 with 5 RBI and 4 runs scored. Moehler was the winner in that 6-2 victory going one out short of a complete game and giving up just the 2 runs on 7 hits.

[dragon1952]

recap- 1-3 on the straight bets and lost the parlay

Sunday Aug 10

Angels -117 vs Yankees - (Saunders 14-5, 3.03 vs Pettitte 12-9, 4.34) - Angels beat up on Pettitte about 10 days ago in N.Y. to the tune of 9 runs on 11 hits, including a couple of dingers, in just 5.1 innings. Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 home games and 4-2 overall vs the Yanks this year.


more later

[dragon1952]

some more - had to get the Angel game in as it was starting soon.

Sunday August 10

Atlanta +190 @ Arizona - (Hampton 1-0, 6.75 vs Webb 16-4, 2.93) - Atlanta has taken the first 3 games of this series by a margin of 28-14. Arizona will be resting a few regulars and will have a line-up featuring the likes of Augie Ojeda .258 0 HR, 16 RBI, Jamie D`Antona .200, 0 HR, 0 RBI, Chris Burke .193, o HR, 7 RBI and Alex Romero .256, 1 HR, 12 RBI.

2-team parlay

Cubs -141 vs Cards - (Dempster 12-5, 2.93 vs Carpenter 0-0, 1.00) - Dempster is 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA at home this year. Cubs 44-17 at home overall and 32-22 inside the division.
Dodgers -122 @ Giants - (Billingsley 11-9, 3.01 vs Cain 7-9, 3.60) - Billingsley pitched a complete game shutout vs the Giants about 10 days ago giving up just 5 hits and striking out 8. Cain has never beat the Dodgers going 0-5 , 4.67 in 8 tries. Giants rarely beat the Dodgers 2 in a row.

[BigD59]

For those needing to pass the time at work today, here's a little parlay I put 1/2 a unit on for my viewing please

Mets -210
Brewers -1.5 -115

Not comfortable laying the run and a half with pedro but I think the Brew Crew finishes out the Nationals series with a bang

[dragon1952]

recap - 1-1 on the straight bets and lost the parlay. The Braves were worth a shot anyway. Since 7/29 I've hit 13 out of 22 on the straight bets for +538, and 8 out of 21 on the parlays for +205. (1 unit straight/1/2 unit parlay)

Monday - August 11

straight bets

Mets RL -1.5 -EVEN vs Pirates - (Martinez 3-3, 5.79 vs Duke 4-10, 5.13) - The Pirates are 2-7 in Duke's last 9 road starts, where he has pitched to a 5.82 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .319 against Duke on the road. The Pirates are just 21-38 on the road this year. Pittsburgh is 0-6 in Duke's last 6 starts overall. The Pirates are 3-6 on their current road trip and have been held to 3 runs or less 7 times. The Mets are 36-22 at home.

White Sox +132 vs Red Sox - (Danks 9-4, 3.21 vs Beckett 10-8, 4.08) - White Sox are 5-2 in Dank's last 7 home starts and 6-2 in his last 8 starts overall. Danks, himself, is 6-0 with 7 no-decisions over his last 13 starts. Chicago has taken 2 out of 3 vs Boston so far in this home stand. Beckett, after a nice little hot streak, has gone just 1-3 in his last 4 starts.

Mets/Pirates OV 9 -EVEN - Two high ERA pitchers, although Martinez has pitched much better in his last 4 starts. 7 of Duke's last 9 road games have resulted in a total of 9 or greater. The over is also 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. The Pirate bullpen has a 5.09 ERA this year, and 6.86 in their last 3 games. The average runs scored against the Pirates when Duke starts is 5.9, which happens to be the same average number of runs scored against the Mets when Martinez starts.

2-team parlay

Houston -137 vs San Francisco - (Backe 6-11, 5.35 vs Sanchez 8-8, 4.64) - The Giants are 0-6 in Sanchez' last 6 starts, having been outscored in those games 48-18. The Astros are returning home from a successful road trip that saw them go 5-2, and winning 4 straight in Cincinnati to finish the trip off. They are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall, and 5-1 in their last 6 home games. They are batting .280 vs lefties this year. Backe will be looking to atone for a terrible outing in Chicago last time out. Prior to that start he had a string of about 5 pretty decent outings.
Phillies/Dodgers OV 8 -105 - (Kendrick 10-5, 4.37 vs Lowe 8-10, 4.10) - In 11 of Kendrick's 12 road starts the total runs scored have been 8 or over. The average total in his road starts has been around 11.5. Opposing hitters are batting .307 against him in his road starts. Lowe's home statistics do not support the over, however, the Phillies are 1st or 2nd in the N.L. in runs scored, RBI and HR's and generally give Kendrick decent run support, averaging 6 runs per game when he starts. Plus, with Manny Ramirez the Dodgers have much more firepower than before. In the 9 games Ramirez has been present, he has hit .459 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 8 runs scored and 31 total bases.

[woodee12]

Grinded out a profit last week and hope to keep it going as i am feeling like I have a handle on some of these teams now.

I am going to continue to watch the Cradinals very close and play on and off of them in different situations.

Monday-

Marlins -130 over STL...Feel a let down coming as the cards stay on the road to florida after a hard-fought series loss in Chicago. Pinero is as good as good against as the cards have and I see them losing the opener tonight.

Astros -135 over SF...Tailing Dragon here.

Yankees -117 over Twins...Hate betting on the Yanks but feel they will get back on track tonight facing Perkins.

Looking at that Over in LA/Philly too. Kinda liking it.