dallas vs ny

[dragon1952]

I don't know if I'd classify those as 'technical trends'. They are more like 'downright facts'. A trend might be, 'Giants are 12-2 ATS as an underdog of between 3-4 when playing on the road the week after turning the ball over less than 3 times and scoring less than 13 pts in an ATS loss' (I made that up, BTW....nobody play that angle )
Over their last 31 games the Giants have been flat out dominant and they still don't get respect. They are 21-6 in their last 27 games and 14-2 in their last 16. They were 3 pt dogs going into Pittsburgh and Philly and won SU. Those are not trends....those are facts. Dallas is the favorite because they have one of the largest, richest fan bases....i.e, they like to blow their money on the home team. The Giants should not be getting points here.

[Boone Moone]

That's a very good point Dragon and me being as tired as I was when I posted, failed to mention the obvious fact that the Dallas line is always biased towards them because of the high volume of play they command on a weekly basis and to echo what you said, their high fan base and the fact
that they are supposedly "America's team".

For what it's worth, I make my own hypothetcial line every Monday morning before seeing the actual Vegas opening line, and do my comparison..........and I had the Giants opening up as a 1-point favorite...........I'm just about NEVER off by 4-points............I'm usually right on or 1 1/2 points off at most............The games I was off on this week were this one and the Philly/Cleveland game.

Ironically, I'll probably end up going with the two teams that played each other last week........The Giants and Philly ATS..........Good Luck guys.

[dragon1952]

That 4 points is about what I figured the line was off by too, not that I have a system or try and calculate my own lines, but just based on the facts....kinda like Joe Friday.
Not that I take them too seriously, but occasionally I will look at the Sagarin ratings, which are probably better for pro-football than in any other sport. The reason I looked at them this week was just because of this thread. They are not usually off by a mile to what Vegas puts out. To give you an example, out of 16 games this week, 8 of the lines are within 1 pt of what you would get by using the Sagarin ratings and 6 more games are within 3.5 pts. So that leaves 2 games. One is Ten -3.5 which the ratings show should be -8, but they have already clinched the division. The other is Dallas -3 vs NYG which the ratings show should be NYG -4.5. That's a 7.5 pt swing, and the only swing that puts an underdog as a favorite.
Now maybe the oddsmakers know something we don't, other than the fact that lots of people with money like the Cowboys. And not that the Cowboys won't pull it off....it wouldn't surprise me in the least. But that's a huge swing in pts there and likely a pretty decent value in taking the Giants.

[jpehl]

You know Im going to have to side with Wide, and say that this game is best to watch not bet! How many NFC East games do we sit around and have the same conversation about. This game will definitely be off the table. Brain says Giants while the balls say Dallas..... Hard choice...
jpehl

[Boone Moone]

Careful J-Pal.............I know a lot of guys that have gotten in trouble by listening to their balls instead of their brains !!!

[cowboyfan2]

i still am not ready to think about cowboys or football....mourning period is still not over....i want to say something but will need to stew for a few more days....

ok - i will say this...right now, my gut is telling me that the Boys will either save their season (for now) with a gutty, "our balls are big" win - or they fold like a bunch of pussies and get blown out

part of me wants the latter so i can start doing something productive with my sundays and it will hasten the departure of that fat-ass country bumpkin that we have for a coach and his red-headed idiot sidekick that runs Cricket Anderson into the line on a 4th & 1....this season has been hexed from the start and truthfully, i just want it to be over

Tony Romo wants to be Brett Favre....well, he has the clutch interception thing down pat....mission f-ing accomplished

i am not a fair weather fan - i will watch and cheer every game....i just see that we cannot win with the current owner/HC/OC combination....not to mention the injuries

[jpehl]

cowboy we should go have a beer... New news to
Boone... Boys are no bet this weekend.

[Boone Moone]

I agree J-Pal and will only be playing the TOTAL here.............While my gut tells me the Giants are the better team, there are just too many intangibles involved to make a serious play on the game............especially the topsy-turvy opening line.

I got "trapped" real good last weekend on that freakin' Jets game by being stubborn and going against my own convictions, so I won't do that again soon............and that was on a SUPER TEASER bet to boot...........the fags couldn't even cover the +6.5 spread and cost me an 11-teamer.

As I said earlier, I'm playing the OVER in this game, and I'll actually be rooting for your boys as I've always been a Tony Romo fan and Marion Barber too.............As a matter of fact, if it weren't for media hogs like T. Owens and "Pacman" Jones, I'd probably be on the 'Boys bandwagon.............but I can't go that far.............Good Luck to you.

[cowboyfan2]

i dont know if i can bet this game....i am still deeply disturbed

but i do feel that the wrong team is favored here and the injuries on Dallas are starting to mount up...Barber will be a game-time decision

this is what my bet would look like:

3* Giants ML (+140)
1* Giants -3 (+180)
1* Giants -4 (+205)

seriously - if my book would give additional lines to Giants -10 i would put half a unit on that as well...but mine only goes to GMEN -4

Giants on the road have been $$$ - and i think there is a good chance that Dallas folds here this week....even if they have a great effort i still think that the Giants have got to be the play here

CF2

not giving up - just see a lot of value in the GMEN here

[woodee12]

well, at least we were all worng together!

[cowboyfan2]

give the boys their props...still 2 tough games left though

philly having the tie could prove to be huge for them....dallas will likely go to Philly on last game of the year having to win in order to make the playoffs

come on boone - give it up for the boys!



cf2

[jpehl]

cowboy,
any thoughts about the ravens?

[cowboyfan2]

well - the way i see it is that it comes down to our offence against their D really

our D has been exceptional since the bye and ravens are offensively challenged anyways....so i dont think the Ravens will score much

so it really comes down to Romo and the passing game...last night Romo missed Owens and Witten a couple of times when they were in the clear....if they can get Proctor some help and Romo's back turns out to be ok then i think they win this game something like 17-10....but it won't work if they are 1-dimensional...so i think they need to run and screen to Choice to keep the Ravens honest and i think they can get Witten/Owens/Bennett/Williams involved

face it - its going to be a tight game...we just need Romo to be a little more accurate and i think we win

of course - this is as long as Romo doesn't turn it over

CF2

[woodee12]

I think I have said it before, but I am a closet Cowboy fan myself.

Besides T.O., I like their team...maybe get rid of him for a less, ME receiver, and then I may jump on board for good but I cannot stand that dude.

Why don't they throw to Roy Williams more? I had him on my fantasy team for a bit, and they kept saying hes learing the system. Either hes a slow learner or his contract said that TO and Whitten get all the looks and TDs.

[widestrides]

As I stated, as a Giant fan I felt -3 was a fair line for the Boys because they had more motivation and were more desperate. I also saw the Giants struggle against the Eagles. Not looking good for my G-men right now. Eli missing his Plaxico security blanket. We are in a bit of trouble. Need to go to draws and swing passes if the run game is not there and the pass rush is getting through.

Missing from the Super Bowl team and it showed last night was:
Strahan
Osi
Kiwika Mitchell
Brandon Jacobs
Kareem McKenzie
Gbril Wilson
Reggie Torber
And Shockey too, even though he missed the SB.

Not making excuses just calling for Help!