February College Hoops Dicussion/Plays thread

[Taxman]

In my last post, I said play against Sparty until they stop the downward spiral. Well, I think tonight the spiral must stop. Penn St. is really short handed without Jeff Brooks. He was their strong interior defender. It showed in the 2nd in the loss to the Illini and affected them in the home loss to Michigan. Brooks dominated Sparty in their home win earlier in the Big Ten season.

Sparty are 0-9 ATS run! Here is where you are picking up very good value. A beat up Penn St. team that plays poorly on the road (only road win was @ Indiana, yes they did play Ohio St and Purdue, but that was before Brooks' injury) vs. a team that is having a tough time internally. It's either going to be a blow out win for Sparty or a stunning loss which brings them ever closer to the dangerous .500 record/NIT/CBA qualifying level.

My gut tells me that this is the game that Coach Izzo will right the ship!
Sparty by at least 10....Playing Michigan St. -6

[woodee12]

I agree with you on Michigan State and have been going back and forth with them in my head. they haven;t done much against the spread in their last 10 games or so, so i do see some value. I will go down with the sinking ship I guess if they lose again ATS.

[woodee12]

Here is the rest of my card...Usually when I feel lousy about my plays they win and vice versa.

I don't feel that great about these but last night I thought I had them pegged dead on.

Illinois +2 over Minny

Michigan State -6 over PSU ***2 unit play***

Northern Arizona +1 over Weber State

Valpo/Denver..ML parlay

Ga tech +2 over FSU

Il-Chicago +2 over one of those Wisy-schools

Pepperdine +4 over Porland

Really wanted to lay the points with Washington but haven;t yet...we'll see how the early games go.

GL!!

[woodee12]

Holy Hell...MSU is alive. Now that I won with them I hope they suck the rest fo the way out and miss the tourney b/c I hate them!

Nice win by Illinois too.

5-2 nigtht for me.

Like one for Friday...

Penn +3 over Columbia...they have lost their last 2 in OT. See a bounce back win on the road tonight.

[widestrides]

woodee,

I was also on MSU and Illinois last night!

I think it would be good to start a new thread for each day.

Makes it easier and keeps things livelier when folks see some more new and active threads. Just a thought.

I have come across a new system that I might share. It is basically going against a lousy team (180 or worse on kenpom.com) giving 6.5 or more at home. The idea is that as their season winds down, they are throwing in the towel. The other team is bad also to be getting 6.5 or more, but the system says the home team is being favored by too much. It went like 37-10 last year. Starts Saturday, Feb. 12th. I'll try to post the plays. No real small conferences.

GL

[widestrides]

Oh no! OT for Penn again. They were up by 4 or 5 and couldn't hold on in regulation.

[woodee12]

Sat...

Will start new dailt thread starting next week.

Big card but being selective

Wiscy -1 over OSU

Clemson pk over UNC

Vandy -1 over UK

Baylor +11.5 over Texas

texas tech +5 over A&M

[widestrides]

Nice 3-1 start woodee. I'm off to a 3-2 start.

[widestrides]

Here's that System I was referring to. It's a real Dog of a System. The idea is that as their season winds down, these Home teams are throwing in the towel and don't have anything to play for. The Road team is also bad as they are getting +6.5 or more, but the system says the Home team is being favored by too much, so go with the Dog. It went 37-10 last year.

Step 1: Find all the home favorites of -6.5 or more

Step 2: Look at their kenpom ranking http://kenpom.com or http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php.
If ranking is 180 or worse, play the dog + 6.5 or more. = a "System Play."

If their kenpom ranking is 160-180 consider the dog of +6.5 or more. = an "Almost System Play."

Step 3: Any dogs of +5-+6, consider playing them if the fav is worse than 180 ranking. = an "Almost System Play."

That's it. Ignore small conferences with teams that have not usually been getting lines.

It was 37-10 last year on the "System Plays."

I missed the first one today and maybe it was a good thing as it was Samford +9 and they are down 20 with 10 minutes to go.

Other plays today:

System Plays: EST
3 pm SAMFORD +10 @ Western Carolina
530 pm FLORIDA INT +8.5 @ Middle Tenn St.
7 pm EASTERN ILLINOIS +8 @ Eastern Kentucky
7 pm TENN CHATT +7 @ App. St.

Almost System Plays:
Cal Riverside +7.5
6 pm ULL +9
6:30 pm Ball State only IF it gets to +6.5

Go Easy and see.
GL

[Carpet]

Sat...

Will start new dailt thread starting next week.

Big card but being selective

Wiscy -1 over OSU

GREAT CALL ON THE WISKY GAME......I was all over that has well

[widestrides]

That was a great game between Whisky and Ohio State. What a comeback. Raining 3s!

Whisky looked like at least an Elite 8 team. Maybe Final 4 material. Taylor at Guard may be the best.

Texas also looks loaded.

Then there's Ohio State who showed their stuff today before the 3s starting raining down on them.

And then there's Duke who can shoot the lights out but may not have the front line to compete.

Now I'll go scout out Pitt and see if they've got the Right Stuff. And Nova?

Any other dark horses?

GL

[widestrides]

Oh yeah, by the way, that System had a great testing run the last couple weeks and today was its first official day and it fell flat. Two dogs winning at halftime melted down in the 2H and another one failed to cover by just 2. I hope I posted too late for anyone to get hurt. I went small and stayed away from one or two of them. It's an ugly duckling system. You won't feel good about betting any of them. Better watch it for awhile.

[Taxman]

Not a problem Wide, remember we are here to help everyone make money. Win some lose some, no one goes undefeated. Any edge or insight we can get is greatly appreciated. BTW, I am gladly going to watch the Illini/Purdue game, hoping the Boilers pull it out.

Right now, I am leaning Penn St. -2 over NW. This is a huge game for either team to bust the others bubble for the chance to get into the big dance.

[Taxman]

Illini -2, I have a real bad feeling that my Boilers are going to have it handed to them today. Illini should be hungrier team.

Very small parlay, Illini, Penn St-2, Minnesota. Penn State's game is a tournament game, they need this to stay ahead of NW. Minnesota needs this game as well if they want to be considered to the tournament.

Technically for tracking/monitoring purposes, I'm playing Illini

[woodee12]

Like Minny and Penn State as well. Iowa cannot hang with Minny's size inside and thats the difference.

PSU looked bad against MSU last time out so getting some extra value with themat home. PSU wins but a close one.

Illinois-Purdue??? I have Purdue in a teaser to +7.5 now but now that I look at it, everything is smelling like a big Illinois win. Unranked favored over ranked too with is a profitable angle thru the years. Public on the dog Boilers too. Probably will lay off but I am leaning more on Illinois by 5+.