Ok, we have made it to the playoffs!
Always a bittersweet time of year. Been working towards this all year but it also means the season is ending.
Here's my thoughts on the games so far and my leans.
Bengals @ Texans -3 o/u 38.5
Texans have Andre Johnson and Wade Phillips back for this game. First ever playoff game for the Texans and it's at home. That stadium will be rocking.
Bengals have played good this year much better than anyone would have guessed BUT they have yet to beat a playoff team. That does not start here.
Houston won @ Cincinnatti week 14. They do it again here in more convincing fashion.
Neither team has a great record ATS. Houston leads though in all categories of offense and defense.
With 3pts as the spread I take Houston. They push or cover. I actually love this pick.
If I had to pick an over under I'd have to lean under. But I think the oddsmakers hit the nail on the head with this number and it will be within 2 pts either direction.
Lions @ Saints -10.5 O/U 59
In the last 5 home games for the saints they have won by 11, 25, 14, 29, 28. They are a juggernaut at home. Lions have a 5-3 straight up away record and 3 of those were playoff teams where they went 1-2 having only beat denver.
Against playoff teams home or away the lions are 1-5 straight up AND ATS.
It's a lot of points but the saints are known for scoring. This is the playoffs and they'll put the pedal down. Got to go with the trend and the historical domination of the saints over the season.
I hate this O/U as well. The saints are fully capable of putting up a ton of points but the Lions will have to help as well. I'm actually leaning under but again hate this line.
Sunday
Atlanta @ NY Giants -3 O/U 47
This is a great game and a hard one to cap. Both teams have ups and downs. Giants can fall flat very easily or be dominant. They have weapons at WR and their D-line is scary.
Atlanta also has 2 faces. On the road, outside you don't know who will show up. 5 of their last 8 were at home. They lost 2 of the 3 road games since week 10 or 2 of 4 since their bye (@ colts week 9). They were stifled by houston, demolished by the saints and had to comeback 2nd half against the panthers.
I do believe the giants win this and not just as a fan but looking at the teams and their history.
Atlanta is 1-4 against playoff teams. Giants are 1-3. Can't pick a winner from that. Look at the loses. Atlanta lost convincingly the giants not so much. Destroyed @ saints (both were) 10yds from san fran, last minute rodgers awesome ridiculousness against GB.
Good line, should be high scoring. Like the gmen to win and 3 or more is good for me. Don't love this game, I'm too close to this game and probably won't bet a side.
O/U I like the over as both teams can score and be scored upon through the air. This would be my bet here.
Steelers -8.5 @ Broncos o/u 34
Pitt hasn't done a lot of scoring lately and big ben's ankle is hurting again. The safety for steelers is out as is their center. Broncos also not scoring much as they lean on the ground and pound with occasional wtf pass play. They have a good defense that will be looking to step up this week. They lost a lineman which hasn't happened to the broncos in a while so that could be troublesome.
If I had to pick an upset this week this would be the game. I like the broncos to cover the spread at the very least. I like this pick a lot.
This game is likely to go under however I wouldn't bet the house on it as both have a big play ability. Antonio Brown can easily catch and run the field and Demaryious Thomas can do the same if Tebow throws the ball.
But with Big Ben gimpy I expect quicker plays short and sweet to eat the clock. The longer he holds it the more likely he'll get slammed.
I've been back and forth on it and while I still think it's likely to go under I have that nagging feeling it'll go over.
There you have it, my quick looks at the games.
I had planned on doing a more organized, longer more edited more stat heavy writeup but I'm at work. This is as much as they'll pay for
Good luck and enjoy!
Always a bittersweet time of year. Been working towards this all year but it also means the season is ending.
Here's my thoughts on the games so far and my leans.
Bengals @ Texans -3 o/u 38.5
Texans have Andre Johnson and Wade Phillips back for this game. First ever playoff game for the Texans and it's at home. That stadium will be rocking.
Bengals have played good this year much better than anyone would have guessed BUT they have yet to beat a playoff team. That does not start here.
Houston won @ Cincinnatti week 14. They do it again here in more convincing fashion.
Neither team has a great record ATS. Houston leads though in all categories of offense and defense.
With 3pts as the spread I take Houston. They push or cover. I actually love this pick.
If I had to pick an over under I'd have to lean under. But I think the oddsmakers hit the nail on the head with this number and it will be within 2 pts either direction.
Lions @ Saints -10.5 O/U 59
In the last 5 home games for the saints they have won by 11, 25, 14, 29, 28. They are a juggernaut at home. Lions have a 5-3 straight up away record and 3 of those were playoff teams where they went 1-2 having only beat denver.
Against playoff teams home or away the lions are 1-5 straight up AND ATS.
It's a lot of points but the saints are known for scoring. This is the playoffs and they'll put the pedal down. Got to go with the trend and the historical domination of the saints over the season.
I hate this O/U as well. The saints are fully capable of putting up a ton of points but the Lions will have to help as well. I'm actually leaning under but again hate this line.
Sunday
Atlanta @ NY Giants -3 O/U 47
This is a great game and a hard one to cap. Both teams have ups and downs. Giants can fall flat very easily or be dominant. They have weapons at WR and their D-line is scary.
Atlanta also has 2 faces. On the road, outside you don't know who will show up. 5 of their last 8 were at home. They lost 2 of the 3 road games since week 10 or 2 of 4 since their bye (@ colts week 9). They were stifled by houston, demolished by the saints and had to comeback 2nd half against the panthers.
I do believe the giants win this and not just as a fan but looking at the teams and their history.
Atlanta is 1-4 against playoff teams. Giants are 1-3. Can't pick a winner from that. Look at the loses. Atlanta lost convincingly the giants not so much. Destroyed @ saints (both were) 10yds from san fran, last minute rodgers awesome ridiculousness against GB.
Good line, should be high scoring. Like the gmen to win and 3 or more is good for me. Don't love this game, I'm too close to this game and probably won't bet a side.
O/U I like the over as both teams can score and be scored upon through the air. This would be my bet here.
Steelers -8.5 @ Broncos o/u 34
Pitt hasn't done a lot of scoring lately and big ben's ankle is hurting again. The safety for steelers is out as is their center. Broncos also not scoring much as they lean on the ground and pound with occasional wtf pass play. They have a good defense that will be looking to step up this week. They lost a lineman which hasn't happened to the broncos in a while so that could be troublesome.
If I had to pick an upset this week this would be the game. I like the broncos to cover the spread at the very least. I like this pick a lot.
This game is likely to go under however I wouldn't bet the house on it as both have a big play ability. Antonio Brown can easily catch and run the field and Demaryious Thomas can do the same if Tebow throws the ball.
But with Big Ben gimpy I expect quicker plays short and sweet to eat the clock. The longer he holds it the more likely he'll get slammed.
I've been back and forth on it and while I still think it's likely to go under I have that nagging feeling it'll go over.
There you have it, my quick looks at the games.
I had planned on doing a more organized, longer more edited more stat heavy writeup but I'm at work. This is as much as they'll pay for
Good luck and enjoy!
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