"Mock Hilton Contest"........Week #9.........Post Your 5 Picks Here.

[Krichinsky]

May have to add a minimum Wonderlic test score next year.

Test questions:

Is Midnight considered 12am or 12pm?
True or False, Saturday doesn't end until the first NFL game starts.

[collywobbles]

what happens to KIF with the atlanta pick?

Good Question. To me it feels like one of those questions that has no answer. Unless someone can convince Goddell to issue a writ demanding the Dirtybirds suit up and play along with either Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay or Tennessee which if ATL had to play on the road any of which would be an ATS loss anyways, unless it was in some other country, I just don't know. Right now it feels like the pick just hangs there in all abstentia like a tired old man condemned to wander the earth searching for old teachers....and friends.

[collywobbles]

Is Midnight considered 12am or 12pm?

another unanswerable question.

True or False, Saturday doesn't end until the first NFL game starts.

That feels.....True. Probably a trick question though. May be "False".

[TheBlackCat]

I find it extremely funny we had nearly as many votes for the Falcons as the Cowboys! Granted, with a 3.5 points spread posted for Romo, I suspect much of that is groupwide cherry picking (although I picked it early in the week).

[Krichinsky]

That goes a little bit to something widestrides has addressed in the past.
i.e. using the posted line to your advantage as the line changes closer to game time.

Black Cat, need to add my thanks for the stats you post.
Colly, you need to post more. You bring some good stuff and that sarcasm I love.

I'm having such a bad year, I did consider using all the bye teams this week. ha, ha.

[Monroe Eaford]

what happens to KIF with the atlanta pick?

Seems like a pretty good pick to me. There's no way the falcons will lose this week.

[TheBlackCat]

5-0...finally!!! And I came so close to picking the Falcons too!
(FWIW, 4-1 finally, maybe even 3-2 finally lol...)

[Carpet]

5-0...finally!!! And I came so close to picking the Falcons too!
(FWIW, 4-1 finally, maybe even 3-2 finally lol...)

Way to go Black Cat well done. You are one of the main reasons I joined this contest with all due respect.

[collywobbles]

Congrats. Well deserved it'd be to see TheBlackCat finish in the $ as karma for doing the consensus. Jaguars +11 Raiders +15 Chiefs -9.5 were brave shrewd and astute selections. 24% or thereabouts of double-digit faves cover, I wanna know how the hell he figured out which one of the 4 this weekend was gonna be the one....Saints -2.5 Dolphins -1.5 very sharp picks as well.

Thats what I meant in my thread about anyone goes 5-0 would be a stud cuz to do so would require standing in the face of the fire to post a card such as this. SF-10 bein' the other dd spread game.

SF really looks like they're on the ropes. Today, for the first time, I moved significantly towards believing that Harbaugh will be gone there and onto Michigan Wolverines job. Been noise along these lines for several weeks and I wasn't buying it. They dominate STL at STL after the start of the 2nd half, as 7 point faves, then in the rematch in their brand new stadium where they have YET to deliver to the crowd a performance that could be expected of a team that has ventured deep into the postseason they do this. I am so mad at the 49ers I could just scream. Brilliance in this 5-0 card was avoiding that selection as the one dd fave that would cover...which I did not accomplish.

Nice work Black cat. You gonna be prime fade material next week, considering in part the laws of probability....natural regression to the mean or....you gonna deliver another 5-0 perfect card?

It'd be nice to know in advance.

[TheBlackCat]

Thanks guys, kinder words than I've deserved this season. I have a lot of winning karma bottled up, so I do think this will go on for a little bit. These 5 had something in common, the teams I picked or picked against had strong positive/negative momentum as well as value.

[collywobbles]

the teams I picked or picked against had strong positive/negative momentum as well as value.

Excellent insight. Continuance of a positive trend for you and a great 2nd half of this contest very likely as momentum of course more truly "guage-able" in the 2nd half of the NFL Season than in the first so I'll be looking for good things from you. Especially with the Leaders enmasse flailing, languishing with 2-3s and such as they've done these past 2 weeks one more 5-0 should see you closing in on 'em and then a 4-1 should put you right where you need to be for the stretch run.

Though I did notice, beginning 2 years ago for some reason, "Momentum" has not been what it was prior to then it in NFL. We see totally more instances of teams playing great then delivering a disappointing performance the next week. Increased parity I'd reckon causing that....I'd be interested to know what specifically you look at to guage Momentum or if its just your "feel" of teams from watching games. Yards Per Point over last few games, QB rankings? W/Ls over last 4? You look at anythings in particular to ascertain this "Momentum/Value" that you describe?

I forsee a very good 2nd half for you Blackcat. GL

[TheBlackCat]

I have formulas that generate lines. Basically I compared recent data with overall data and the actual line and look for large shifts. This also had the benefit of fading overall line values that have been great fades so far this season lol.

[collywobbles]

So those underdog picks were less brave than it appeared then 'eh? You made those cuz of actual reasoning and.....reasons. And here I thought you were just a Blind Squirrel who happened into a sack of nuts.

[collywobbles]

Damn. I coulda chosen better phrasing than "sack of nuts."

I'm sorry.

[collywobbles]

So does it screw everything up for you when as today Foles goes down with broke collarbone or Romo is gone from an equation or do you have some way to adjust your models for such stuff?

I know I should be generating my own lines also but I'm afraid to try cuz I don't know where to start, what foundational inifo to base such upon and I don't wanna invest several years of rooting out lines only to discover I was factoring in the wrong stuff all along, shoulda been using other stuff so I choose instead to just sit here and do nothing more than think about how I should be doing something like that, existing like a Blind Squirrel hoping to stumble upon a sack of....ummm....uhhhh....i'm kinda cornered here. .