JR Miller's record

[SLAM DUNK]

Buckeye, in the example I used above I said suppose you had 400 55% plays and 100 60% plays.

55% plays should go 220-180 +22 units

60% plays should go 60-40 +16 units but +32 units by betting 2 units.

Technically, you want to bet every game that offers you a significant edge. Just because you have 100 60% games to bet more on, why pass up the 22 units of expected profit you make on the lower percentage plays.?

The hypothetical I gave is not far fetched. Your 55% plays will be far more common than 60% plays. Just like 60% plays will be far more common than 65% plays.....

[steve p]

Wintermute
If you go back to the beginning of this thread you will see that numourous people did attack his record.
Slam Dunk
If you KNOW your win percentage on all your plays forget Kelly it would actually be prudent to only bet parlays on any bet that you KNOW will win over 56%. That will reduce your risk and increase your units won. Also you mentioned plays with a expected win percentage of 65%. If you indeed are good enough to KNOW those plays I agree raise your bet level. The Las Vegas Club and many offshore joints will pay you 6.5 to one on a three teamer. You will be more famous then the Pokers in no time.
I do not have time now but as soon as I can I will answer the questions you asked in your post.

[SLAM DUNK]

Steve P, there is a couple problems with the Parlay scenario. Unfortunately, it is rare that you get your best line on each game at the same out, making the parlay not possible.
Each 1/2 point worth 1.9%(NBA), I am going to take the free 1.9 % every time. Also a 3 game parlay on 3 60% games is .6*.6*.6 =21.6% chance of winning or a 78.4% chance of LOSING.(27.45 % or 72.55% chance of losing with .65 games)-Not to mention the chances of getting 3 65% games in one day happens once a season if you are lucky. Yes the expected ROI % increases on parlaying games with an advantage, but the low probability of the parlays hitting means you can bet only a fraction of what you can on the games straight. An emphasis on straight betting is my preferred strategy. Now theoretically, you can parlay from day to day, but I prefer increasing bankroll with profits(on an interval basis) to that approach. Mental outlook and attitude is so important in this game, that I feel parlay should NEVER be the only option. They can make a nice extra bonus however.

Question, why do you think it is so impossible to identify 100 60% games and so
easy to identify 2000 55% games. To me the former is MUCH, MUCH EASIER, than the latter.
You mentioned the Pokers, but from what I have read about them, their percentages do not reach 55%(or I should say the equivalent ROI %), so using your theory, JR Miller should already be MUCH MORE FAMOUS than them.

[This message has been edited by SLAM DUNK (edited 07-21-2000).]

[woodpony]

I like Hamhog's question,about betting same amount per play.for instance today 7/21 I had 5 plays that I knew I would end up playing 3 of the 5 plays went before the 6:05 cst start.so that left me with 2-night games and 3 early/afternoon games.The early plays were Twins +155,A's-130 and Redsox+110
now here is my logic out of the above plays if all bet for the same "unit" for me to make a profit I must hit 2 of the 3.with 2 of the 3 plays being dogs I felt my best way to play these was to play them all the same.now here is where it got tough my last 2 plays of the night were Cleveland -145 and Houston +110 now at the time I placed these wagers I had already had a winning day and since these were my last 2-plays of the day my question to myself was "do I bet these the same"well my logic once again was I have already made a profit for the day and if I bet these 2-for the same units I must hit both to add to my winnings,if the fav wins and dog losses I push the night card,if the dog wins and fav losses I still lose for the night card so the only way to win betting these 2-plays equal is to win them both-since I am my own worst critic I did not want to go that route and just could not play one higher than the other because then I would be upping my daily units on the last 2-plays of an already winning day,in other words adding more risk to my profits.so I simply bet the 2-plays in a 2tp well the moral is the fav lost-so my logic worked and since I was going to play them anyway I made more for the day for doing this.point is JR.Miller has some great points on money management as far as what the pro's do re: betting all wagers the same.but sometimes it does not pay to do so.and we have all had games we thought were stronger than others/some won and others lost.I feel it is best for each player to look at his own situation and decide what he or she must do to make the best of that day-not set in stone a rule that clearly will cost you in the long run.because let's face it if I see a bad line that is off and a line that I feel is sharpe I will play more on the weak line vs. the sharpe line I would rater risk a little more and have a chance of making a profit in a split than spliting and still lossing juice. just my 2 cents you guy's are great and I love this forum.glta

[SLAM DUNK]

Buckeye, in regards to bet tracking, a simple worksheet like Excel will do. Identify the major reason why you made the bet, and put it in that category. Over a large sample you will notice things. Maybe value is your strength, maybe not, maybe you are onto a couple of obscure angles that win consistently for you. Whatever the case, let the samples get large, say a 100 + each, for each type of bet, and you will see patterns emerge. Even though you may hit 55% as a whole, down the line you may notice that some angles are closer to 60% angles, and others do not even hit the needed 52.3%. The only way you can know is by tracking your results.

If you are dealing with money line sports, I would suggest a money risked column and a money won/loss column, so you can isolate the actual ROI for each category.

I think the important thing is to use this type of analysis as a tool and not get carried away too soon. Wait to the samples get large before you start reacting, or you could get very frustrated.

[pay2play]

Good posts, Slam.
In money lines, it's ROI, not win % that counts. And sample sizes must be much, much bigger than most people know to have validity, expecially if you've simply been data mining.

Hamhog, the proper way to bet money lines is a unit to win, not to win a unit. BM's love the latter. Some, Gameday for example, even set up their online betting software with that in mind. It's low blow on their part, sucking out wrong sized bets from the squares. But that's this business.

Woodpony, not to bust your balls, but as a long time professional poker player, as soon as I hear someone talk about winning sessions I know they're almost certainly a losing player. It isn't about winning days, it's about winning money. If you had a bet with a positive expectation, if you bet less on it than you normally would to protect the day's lead, you forfeited profit opportunity, regardless of the wager's actual outcome.

Buena suerte.

[AussieVamp2]

p2p said it again in this last post

who cares if you go 2 and 1 in a single day?

It is the long term that matters.

[AussieVamp2]

a couple of the recent major league soccer threads being good example

some bets there that were paying 4.00, 5.00 and 6.00, away teams like that are less likely to win perhaps, but these were very nice returns - if you bet these to win just a unit?

Bookmakers should like the betting to win a unit on favorites, as if most people lose, they will lose even more.... plus favorite lines will often be a bit worse

[Lou_Covers_Com]

Wow!

This is like five topics in one thread.

My $0.02 on who pays the juice:

While I have the personal philosophy that it basically works out that everyone pays the juice, I do have to give Miller a back-handed boost to his argument.

Look at it this way:

If you look at sports gambling as an investment process, as I think a lot of us do, then it is irresponsible to think of a $100 wager as anything other than a $110 risk - since that is how much you have to pay if it loses.

I'm sure that is how a lot of accountants would put it on the books anyway.

In that light, the winner pays.

However, I also believe that for the majority of situations, it's all just a matter of symantics and depends on how you calculate you unit wager.

The only key to remember is that, if you are using one of Miller's money managment methods,it's probably best to be of the philosophy that the winner pays.

Likewise, if you are of the philosophy that the loser pays, than you probably should use a complementary money management philosophy as well.

If you get mixed up or inconsistent with your philosophies, that's when you will get really hurt, because at that point you will probably start screwing up your proper unit wager.

[buckeye]

AV2,
I am looking for s/w that lets you enter non-baseball $line bets and tracks them for you ( I have trialed some but it wouldn't let you put anything but "baseball teams" in ).

SLAM DUNK,
My question was why not bet 6 units on your 2* plays 60-40=+96 units for the same 600 unit total risked? Instead of 400 on 1*55% and 200 on the same 2*60%ers! 96>54
Less plays but MORE PROFIT. I would think a pro would maximize profits over action!

Thanks for the excel suggestion, I'm already using it but I was impressed by some of the reports, etc. out of some bet tracking s/w I demoed. My problem is it wouldn't let me track golf/nascar $line bets or do any analysis "within" parlays like stats on how many were 0/2 vs 1/2 vs 2/2 instead of just W/L. So I didn't buy it.

If all things are equal, BIG IF, why wouldn't you bet parlays on your 60%+ plays ( assuming same lines and availability ) when the opportunity presents itself? Given proper $management and long term >55% results you can make MUCH more profits on them.

steve p,
Check out AcesGold no vig friday deals. They apply to parlays as well as flat/straight bets. PostTime also has 7-1 3-tmrs on Tues and Fri nights for FB.

[steve p]

Slam Dunk

If you parlayed all of your 65% plays you should win about 27.46%. You could bet 1 unit on each parlay instead of 1 unit on each game therefore dramatically reducing your risk.

Advantage number one.
On a three teamer your risk would be 1 unit instead of 3.3 units on three flat bets. That alone will keep you in the game when you hit the inevitable cold streak.

Advantage number two.
Your projected profit per play would increase by 400%. Talk all you want about line shopping at one out but there is no way on God's green earth that any line differences are going to come close to erode this advantage.
Three Teamers- 65% 6.5 to 1 payout. 100 plays. $10000 risk. Expected profit $10595. $105.95 profit per play
Straight Plays- 65% 11/10 payout. 300 plays. $33000 risk. Expected profit $7950. $26.50 profit per play.

Option- Imagine if you decided to risk the same amount on each play and played your 65% expectations as three teamers. The $10593 would become $34963.50. An unbelievable $349.63 profit per play. Wow! And because you claim to be able to KNOW a 65% play you can risk 2% of your bankroll and be comfortable that a losing streak will not bust you.

As for the Poker's and the Computer Boy's I believe they averaged about 60% not less then 55%. They (and I) would love to get hold of your 65% plays.

[woodpony]

pay to play you did not bust my balls lol all I was trying to say was I was already up for the DAY not saying I bet this way everyday.today there are normal start times and since I have no opinion or play in the Cubs game all of my wagers will be placed at the same time.I know bottom line is to make money period.not per day/session,I was just making a point that I felt I was pushing my luck with 3-winners already under my belt and bottom line my decision was correct reguardless if it being the right thing to do.but I for the most part agree with you.I was just saying it is the person's situtation that should decide to play more or less per play and not set in stone I will play all these the same.glta

[SLAM DUNK]

Steve P, I know what you are saying, but you cannot bet nearly as much on a about 28% parlay as you can on a 65% game. Roi is equal to Roi % times amount bet. In your example you mentioned betting the same amount on a 3 game parlay as you would bet on each game. If you do that, your RISK of financial ruin is very high. I have the ratio at about 12 to 1,
you can bet 6% of bankroll on a 65% play, and .5% of bankroll on the parlay of 3 65% plays.
Maybe one of the brilliant Math guys aboard,
can give their thoughts on the subject, but that is why my focus is on straight plays.

Buckeye, the bottom line is that theoretically, I should bet a million dollars on all my high probability plays, but CAN I AFFORD TO . The whole point about % of BR is to bet as much as I can afford to bet on a game given the stength of the game. I got my figures using random computer simulations, and looked for the WORST possible scenario. The numbers I came up with were
2% on 55%
4% on 60%
9% on 70%

I do not know that this is the best approach,
the Kelly is much more agressive, and can be quite lucrative. I do not understand the mathematics. But running random trials, I found sometimes the results with Kelly are unbelievably good, other times the results are unbelievably bad, and often they end up fairly similar to my approach. So for the fun of it I will probably take a small part of my bankroll and use Kelly, and see what becomes of it. Of course is all goes well, does anybody now who will take a half million dollar bet on an NBA game.

Steve P, I am looking to have a website up for the start of NBA season-just don't tell the Poker's. But sorry, all games will be noted as 60% + only, I want the sportsbooks to stay in business a few more years.

[steve p]

Slam Dunk

You don't need a math guy it is easy.

At 65% you have better than a 1 out of 4 probability of winning every 3 teamer. If you can get 6.5 to 1 odds that beats the hell out of any straight bet.

[SLAM DUNK]

Steve, already answered. I am not disputing the much higher % return on dollar with parlays, I am saying that you have to bet a lot less on them, because of the low probability of them winning. You are looking at 1/2 of the equation, I am looking at both halves and the net at the end. But I think we agree that there is room for BOTH strategies.

But one thing I have not addressed, and why I think it is important to stick with the high probabilty plays is the learning process involved. I am always learning. Every season, I come in thinking I know all there is to know, and by the end of the season, I have learned of many new things that work, and learn of a few things, that do not work like I thought they did. It is these refinements that eventually lead your handicapping to the point where you can identify high probability games. Over the years I have made many, many bets that I have since learned, should not have been made. So I would advise that if you are going to take on the parlays aggressively that your handicapping has reached the point that your refinements are minor and not major. Also once again, I cannot stress the importance of mental attitude ENOUGH. Losing streaks play havoc on the psyche and parlays are going to leave you with LONG losing streaks no matter how sharp you are.