JR Miller's record

[reno]

When I first moved to Vegas circa 1984, I hung out with Greg Gift, a handicapper who wrote a book called "Winning with the Underdog." Greg's mantra was: "Don't handicap your handicapping." Maybe that's why Greg remained poor for as long as I kept in contact with him.

[J. R. Miller]

Steve P:
This statement by someone calling themselves "Slam Dunk" exposes his utter non-understanding of money management, of course.

"I am not disputing the much higher % return on dollar with parlays, I am saying that you have to bet a lot less on them, because of the low probability of them winning."

As I explain - and prove beyond a doubt - in Chapter 9 of my book, How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread', the only correct method is to risk the same on parlays as on single bets. This is not a "theory". It's simply the "way it is".

[Hamhog]

JR,

Take this example:

Your bankroll = $100k
Average bet size = $2.2k

You are going to play a 6 game parlay that pays 40/1.

Are you telling me the only proper play is 2.2 k to win 88k. It would not take too much of a bad run for you to go broke without ever hitting that 6 teamer.

The same money management principle applies to 2 and 3 team parlays. Your risk amount relative to your bankroll should be far less if you want the same exposure to Gamblers Ruin. (By the way, I called dunes and got a line in progress on you responding to this post with something like: The statement by someone calling themselves "Hamhog" exposed his true imbecile ways in "blah blah blah" if you would read chapter 13 in my book you would understand what a moron he is. I took the yes and only laid -345 (I bet one unit)

[SLAM DUNK]

JR MIller, no comment needed. You have truly exposed yourself as completely clueless.

[zippy]

Where I come from, grown men don’t go by the name “Hamhog,” and for that matter, precious few of the women do either.

In any case, this fellow calling himself “Hamhog,” besides being afraid to use his real name, is clearly a moron. I know this, because on my website, I assert it to be the case.

I suggest this “Hamhog” read my book, not that a fool like him could understand it of course. I’m sure he prefers just to go on attacking people smarter than him. Idiots like him always do. That’s not my opinion; that’s the way it is.

But I can’t waste any more of my valuable time with the likes of him. I’m too busy telling God how to run the universe. What a putz He is too, by the way! I don’t know why I bother.

[Hamhog]

Zippy,

I appreciate the post, but Dunes only pays if JR writes the post.


Hamhog

[Scott Landau]

To the man,women,or Roswell alien posting as 'Zippy', As someone who visits 'Bookies Hell' to post systems, and 'Oddswiz' purely for the entertainment, I must point it out when someone delivers a most riotous post!

[steve p]

Slam Dunk

Sorry it took so long to answer your questions from yesterday. The first time I used JR was 1997 in both football and basketball. JR gives you the reason for each play which many times shows me something I missed in my own analysis. I combined my picks with his and learned very quickly when we disagreed not to bet against him.
I do not have his exact record but I can tell you I netted 114.5 units for that time period.

In 1998 because of extensive travel I only wagered on football. I used JR and in the 14 weeks that I played he hit 59%. Somehow I screwed it up with my own plays and a bookie that stiffed me. So far that remains my only losing season in 14 years.

In 99 I was with him off and on due to my business schedule but when I play I make sure it is not without his advice.

Someone mentioned his losing streak last August. Let me tell you a story. Last September I called JR to sign up for football. He knew I was a happy customer and also knew I was unaware of his bad August. He would not take my money! He told me of the streak and that he was not charging anyone until he put back some money in their pockets. That is the real JR Miller.

The best advice I can give anyone is to read his book. No matter who you are you will learn something. JR knows sports.

Also look in the back and see the names of the people who recommend it. That should help you make up your mind about who the professional is.

[wintermute]

Given the same expectation of winning you bet less on long-shot plays like parlays than you do on normal plays. Sorry JR, that is "the way it is".

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Boy this thread has gotten long.
1st let me say again I think RJ has excellent site with excellent info and and would in no way question his integrity.But yes Steve P I do question his capping ability and would like to ask him the question I have asked for years at varies sites. "have you EVER hit a documented 55% in ANY sport in ANY year.Looking at his charts if you started at beginning of bases you might be getting antsy by now if you include fee which I don't know what his fee is but one would need to look at chart Brian had in archives for a couple of years ago that shows winning % needed to break even per cost of service at differt amounts wagered. Maybe he could repost it prior to foots.
Now if you want to pay whatever for those picks,have at it but I can give no less then 2 people in bases,foots,hoops and golf that that have DOCUMENTED winning records for FREE.
With that being said I would like to add I am in no way against paying for info and would pay for service with long term track record if fee was modest.As most know I have records of services dating back years and one thing that has been constant is price has no bearing on quality but is directly proportionate to ad bugdet in most cases.

[greg]

since jr only wagers 2% anyways assuming that you hit55% overall and play 3 teams or less that would work. It boils down to math winning % leads to actual likelyhood of winning a given parlay on a 3 teamer with 6-1 if you can cap well enough to hit 20% of those 2% is safe and effective. If you play 6 teamers at 40 to1 and you fiqure to win at a 3.3 % rate than 2% bankroll wager is too high. jr has his blind followers who take his word without question there are people like that everywhere its like a cult mentality, no point in argueing logic with em. He is not documented by any third party he does not offer any guarantee on his service he does have some testimonials on his effectiveness. Since at least on slug was buying his picks and then selling them as his own I have to guess he has an overall winning % . Most people think indepentently enough to judge his ideas on merit not blind faith. Its funny how people with a cult mentality tend to believe absurd ideas without question, also the cult leaders often answer critisism with rhetoric or feel they are being attacked.

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by buckeye:
AV2,
I am looking for s/w that lets you enter non-baseball $line bets and tracks them for you ( I have trialed some but it wouldn't let you put anything but "baseball teams" in ).

Ok, for some non-American software, that might let you do lots of playing with multiple bets etc., try having a look at www.bethelp.com and the 'software' link on the menu on the left (near the bottom I think)

[phatboy]

That book How Proffesional gamblers beat the pro football spread.
To me its considered the Bible of pro football handicapping.

And Slam you know who I am.

---------------------------------------------

THE TEAL IS REAL

[Hamhog]

Who pays the Juice:

Hypothetically, Olympic has the week 1 line between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at Balt -1.5.

Assume that Olympic has $110k to win $100 on both sides and the game has started. Has Olympic earned 10k juice or do they have to wait for the outcome of the game?

The point I am trying to make is that when I buy a book from Amazon by JR on football betting, do I pay for the book at the time of purchase or the time of delivery? (Some may argue I pay for the book all football season with my bets)

I am of the opinion the payment is made at the time of purchase. Therefor, everytime a bet is made, juice is paid unless the game is cancelled or pushed.

[J. R. Miller]

Mr. Hamhog, sir, and all the other ilustrious gentlemen hungry for knowledge on this string:

Let's try it once more: The winner pays vigorish. It's exactly the same as risking $110 on the passline at craps or $110 on "red" at roulette, or risking $110 in a $110 slot machine. The amount you risk is the amount you bet, and that's your betting "unit." If you lose, you lose your betting "unit." If you win, you get back less than the "fair" amount. In sports betting your winnings are shorted by 9.1%.

Concerning the 6-bet parlay mentioned above, one should rarely or never play more than a 3-teamer when using 2% of his bankroll precisely because of the inevitable long droughts between wins. Nevertheless, the math is sound concerning the bet size being the same whether risking $100 on single bets or $100 on 2-team parlays or $100 on 3-team parlays. If one's bet size was only 1% of his bankroll, 4-teamers would be "allowable."

Fellows, I didn't invent these rules. I learned them the hard way. I've been busted out as often or more than any of you. Believe me, I know you're going to pour abuse on me, so I'm not here to "promote" my website. Anyone reading this string is likely to come away thinking J. R. Miller is outnumbered and must be wrong.

Trouble is, I'm right. The amount risked on single bets should be no more than 2% of your bankroll, kept the same as long as practicle, and also kept the same on 2- or 3-bet parlays. What you risk is your "unit", and if you win you get back less than the "fair" amount. (Another way to look at it is, if you and I risked $110 against one another without using the services of a bookmaker the winner would walk away with $220, the loser would lose $110. If we used a bookmaker, the loser would still lose $110, but the winner would walk away with only $210...The winnings were "shorted" by $10 - 9.1% of the $110 "should" have won.)