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KANSAS STATE AT LOUISVILLE

9/17/08

When I first saw this game on the schedule my first thought was that Kansas State would blow Louisville off the field. Just from memory of last season, which I admit gets worse as each year goes by, I recalled Louisville not being able to stop anyone last year and being left with the impression that the Card were just a very bad team. My recollection of Kansas State was a little different. I recall them knocking off Texas. Playing Kansas to within a touchdown and losing a shoot out by 2 to Oklahoma State. So my initial thoughts here were that the Wildcats would score buckets of points while at the same time they'd be able to shut down Louisville enough to get a cover laying the small number.

But upon closer look, I learned that it's best not to rely on memory. Not mine at least. It struck me how similar these two teams results were from a year ago. Both averaged 35 points per game while both gave up about 30 points per game. Both had wins and close losses against "good teams". Kansas State beat Texas and played Auburn to within 10, Kansas within a TD,  Oklahoma State within 2. Louisville beat Cincinnati and lost to West Virginia by just a touchdown and beat Rutgers by 2.  Both also lost games down the stretch last year that kept them out of Bowl games.

Overall give Kansas State the slight nod. Louisville gave up some big points and had some close games with very bad teams, like Syracuse, for example. But otherwise we see similar results. Even their past history this decade is similar in that both had some great success in the early part of the 2000's while both have stumbled lately. Lastly, both return roughly the same number of starters.

Given the similarities, it's tough not to side with Louisville here. Playing at home before a prime time TV audience in a game they feel they can win makes the points a bonus here. Really can't judge Kansas State off of two lopsided wins over North Texas and Montana State. Louisville also bombed Tenn State, which had to give the offense some confidence after being shut down by Kentucky a week earlier.

Also worth mentioning is that Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell started against Kansas State in 2006. Louisville won the game 24-6 with Cantwell throwing for 173 yards. That win ought to have Cantwell feeling confident going into this one.

Nothing big here. Certainly not a Key Release but I'll side with Louisville here in what could be a last team with the ball wins type game

Louisville +4


 

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