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2008 MLB PLAYOFFS AND WORLD SERIES PICKS
The Key Release crew returns to the diamond with the 2008 MLB playoffs set to begin today. The MLB Payoffs have been VERY good to us over the years here on Bettorsworld. Last year we were unconscious on these pages. We had a fantastic run and hope to pick up where we left off. Duplicating last years success won't be easy, but we'll sure give it our all!
2* Rays -106 Sonnanstin
We'd like to come back with the Rays tonight but the price is simply too high. If there's any value out there tonight it's on the Phillies side. You're getting +150 on a proposition that's closer to 50/50. Now that's a long term edge that's hard to pass up. But, pass up we are going to do. Just a hunch really. The price dictates a play on the Phillies but we think the Rays pull this one out tonight.
We will make a small play on the total though.
Game 2 - 1* Rays/Phillies under 8.5 -115
We are not going to make a series play here. We like the Rays, but at the current price of -140, we think there's more value in a game by game approach. So, we'll start tonight by backing the Rays at a very fair price of -102. You can probably do even better than that. We are using the price from Skybook as of this writing. The main reason for the play tonight, is the long layoff for the Phillies. Pitchers, and baseball players in general, are creatures of habit. The last two teams that had layoffs like this before the series, didn't show up to play. The Rays are still in the rhythem as a result of their 7 game series with the Bosox.
2* Game 1 Tampa Bay -102 (Kazmir) over Phillies (Hamels)
no play tonight
3-1 in the playoffs to date including a couple of sides and a couple of series bet, a winner on the Dodgers and a loser with the Angels. For the ALCS and NLCS we are not going to make any series plays. Just don't see any value in the prices being offered. The playoffs are all about momentum. The four remaining teams all have momentum at this point. The Phillies rate the edge over the Dodgers based on the regular season even when you consider the Manny affect. Over in the AL it's going to come down to who can steal a game on the road as both teams we're dominant at home in the series.
Of the two series, the only potential value we see is with the Phillies at a modest -115 to win the series. But again, both teams are hot which keeps us away from a series bet. The Dodgers are on a 22-8 run while the Phillies are on a 16-4 run. Again, when teams are hot you can throw out all the little edges you look for when handicapping baseball on a daily basis.
We'll make a play on the total here in game 1 Dodgers/Phillies. - 2* Dodgers/Phillies UNDER 7.5
Well, we cashed A NICE +190 Series ticket on the Dodgers. Now we sit and wait on the Angels and hope they can do the near impossible, which is to come back from 2-0 down and win this series. If we can get by tonight and get to a 5th game, we'll weigh our options. For now, we stick with the series bet.
We also cashed a nice ticket on the Phillies the other day so, thus far we're 2-0 and +$628 for the playoffs based on $100 per star.
Today - one play
2* Tampa Bay +115 (Sonnanstin) over Chisox (Floyd) win!
For today's games, we wouldn't be interested in laying the price with the Rays and have no interest in the Chisox. In the Angels-Bosox game we already have some exposure with our wager on the Angels to win the series so we'll back off that one as well. Tonight is obviously a huge game as far as that futures bet goes. An Angels loss all but cooks that one. We did cash a nice ticket on the Phillies yesterday which brings our individual game record for the post season to 1-0. There will be more......just not today.
We have to make a decision today as far as what to do with our Dodgers futures ticket. As we mentioned, we felt they had a good chance to steal a game in Chicago. Well, game stolen. Now what? As we said, for the faint of heart, you can take the Cubs to win the series today and lock in a guaranteed profit. As of this writing there's no prices posted but it will be favorable.
However, the right thing to do, long term, is to stick with the original wager. at +190 and now with a game in our pockets, we have the long term advantage we look to achieve. Put another way, if we were put in this situation 100 times, sticking with the original wager every time would prove to be very profitable long term. We may win or lose this one time, but long term, we have the best of it, so we'll stick with the Dodgers here.
We felt the Zambrano game was the one to steal. Now that the Cubs are down 0-1, this puts even more pressure on an already erratic pitcher. It wouldn't be a shock to see the Dodgers win this one as well.
2* Phillies +124 over Brewers - win! Myers over Sabathia - What's not to like here? CC Sabathia is pitching on 3 days rest for the 4 consecutive time. These are not 6 inning stints he's pitched either. He pitched 9 innings his last time out and 7 innings in the start before that. There's a reason pitchers aren't used like that more often, isn't there? Nothing to fear from Sabathia as far as post season performance either. Last year he was 0-2 with a 10.45 era in the series against the Bosox. Let's also not forget his early season struggles in Cleveland this season. Yes, he's hot as can be right now, and yes he's motivated by the fact that he'll be a free agent and likely the highest paid player in baseball with a good performance here, but he's beatable and the short rest for the 4th straight time can come into play.
We have no plays for the first day of the playoffs however we sent a couple of Series plays out to our mailing list yesterday.
2* Dodgers +190 or better to win the Series win!
3* Angels -120 to win the Series. loss
2* Dodgers to win Series - Our feeling with the Dodgers-Cub series is that the Dodgers have a great chance to steal a game in Chicago. When taking +190, if they do in fact win one, that changes the landscape of the series and gives us some options to work with, be it sticking with them or for the faint of heart, hedging off and locking in a guaranteed profit when the series goes back to LA and we get a new series price.
Their likely chance to steal one comes in game 2 when they go against Zambrano but there's even hope in game 1 when they send Lowe to the Hill. Lowe is 5-1 in his last 9 starts with a 0.99 ERA. There's a few Wild Cards in this series as well. Manny Ramirez for one. The Dodgers were 2-5 against the Cubs this year but that was without Manny. With Manny, they are a different team. They were 17-8 in September. The team is playing some of it's best baseball of the season right now which of course is perfect timing for us. The other Wild Card is Joe Torre. 13 straight years in the post season and wouldn't it be a heck of a story for him to get the Dodgers into the World Series? He was never given the credit he deserved in New York. People said anyone could have managed a team of all stars but clearly getting the Dodgers to this point and beyond is a feather in his cap and a tribute to his ability as a manager. No Yankees this year, but this series has two ex-Yankees going head to head! We like our chances to grab a game in Chicago. Check back if they do as we may not stick with them thru the entire series.
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3* Angels to win Series -120 - We realize that the regular season can mean nothing come playoff time. Baseball history has plenty of examples of teams dominating another in the regular season yet not being able to beat them in the playoffs which is what many point to when making a case for the Bosox here. The Angels were 8-1 against the Bosox this year. Certainly a great case can be made for the Bosox with their pitching staff and post season dominance of the Angels but some of that "dominance" goes back many years which has no bearing on the here and now.
The Angels won 5 times at Fenway this year and outscored the Sox 61-33 on the year. If that doesn't give a team confidence nothing will. The Bosox have some injuries with the most glaring being the health of Beckett. The injuries, the regular season, dominance, no Manny......we simply feel like the price is right here to jump on the Angels. There was -120 out there yesterday but now we see mostly -130 and higher.
We have no individual game plays for October 1st but be sure to check back each day throughout the playoffs!!!
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