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KENTUCKY DERBY
FRONTRUNNERS
2009
They say that many of the great horses in the
history of thoroughbred racing have several things in common. One of
those things is speed. There is nothing like a horse that will go to
the front and just pour it on once they hit the stretch. It takes a
special kind of horse to go wire to wire in the Kentucky Derby.
Winning Colors, the last filly to win the Kentucky Derby did so in
1988. The feisty War Emblem wired the field in 2002. It isn’t
common, but the right horse can run them off their feet on the First
Saturday in May. Let’s take a look at some of the speedsters.
Quality Road- This son of Elusive Quality is likely to
be one of the top choices for the Kentucky Derby, and it isn’t
without good reason! His last race when he took the Florida Derby
was an absolute beauty. Not only did he repel the bid of favored
Dunkirk, but he showed us that distance will be no problem. His BSF
of 111 for that effort is among the best of the year, but his BSF of
113 in the Fountain of Youth was even better. He topped a deep field
in the Fountain of Youth, which was the first time he raced with
Lasix. He is likely getting better, and we may have just seen the
tip of the iceberg. I expect to see him between 4-1 and 5-1.
Papa Clem- The Arkansas Derby winner launched a bid
from fifth last time out, but has set the pace twice in his career.
He is a son of Smart Strike, who also produced two time Horse of the
Year, Curlin. He battled to the wire with the highly touted Old
Fashioned last out and bested him by one half of a length. Papa Clem
earned a career best BSF of 101 for that effort. He is the
prototypical horse that is getting better as time goes on, and
that’s the type you want in the Kentucky Derby. A close friend of
mine has watched him work in the AM, and says he is a very
effortless mover. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is among the best in the
nation, and will give this guy a hell of a ride. I expect him to go
off at anywhere from 15-1 to 20-1.
Regal Ransom- This colt is certainly regally bred. He
comes from Distorted Humor, who sired 2003 Kentucky Derby winner
Funny Cide. His dam sire is Regal Ransom who was the leading sire in
the United Kingdom for many years. In his career debut he went wire
to wire at Saratoga, and earned a BSF of 93. He returned to finish
8th in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes, and was soon after purchased by
Godolphin. He has raced three times in Dubai, culminating to a
victory in the Group 2 UAE Derby. He beat highly regarded stable
mate Desert Party in that race. He certainly has the skills to pay
the bills, and he is bred to go the distance. He is likely to go off
at somewhere around 25-1.
Join In The Dance- NBA baller Rashard Lewis is a
partial owner of this son of Sky Mesa. His best race came two back
when he nearly led the field gate to wire in the Grade III Tampa Bay
Derby. The winner of that race, Musket Man, returned to capture the
Grade II Illinois Derby. Join In The Dance followed that race up
with a fifth place finish in the Bluegrass Stakes after setting the
fractions. He has showed talent in the past, but he would have to
step up big time to win the Kentucky Derby. He will go off at odds
upwards of 50-1, but could perhaps round out the Superfecta with a
great run.
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