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2009 KENTUCKY DERB PICKS
OUR OFFICIAL RUN FOR THE ROSES PREDICTIONS
The name of the colt that crosses the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby will be etched in the history books forever. Trainers, jockeys, owners, grooms, and anyone involved in the sport are given the strength to get up in the morning hoping that one day they can win this race. It is constantly on their mind. The time has finally come. The field for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is set. The defection of Quality Road, previously my top pick, means I will have to look elsewhere. Let’s find the winner.
Winner: Friesan Fire
Trainer Larry Jones and Gabrial Saez lost of a piece of their heart
when Eight Belles broke down after finishing second in last year’s
Kentucky Derby. Jones will be retiring at the end of 2009. Nobody
has more at stake than these two. They will bring Friesan Fire to
the track as the 5-1 fourth choice on the morning line.
This colt didn’t have the best two-year-old campaign in the world,
but he has not missed a beat as a three-year-old. I am very
impressed by how much he has matured. He has been great the entire
year, and has literally improved in each and every start. His last
start in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was easily his best, as he
earned a BSF of 104 en route to a 7 ¼ length.
Friesan Fire will have no problem going 10 panels. He powered home
last out going 8, and he is a son of A.P. Indy. His sire has
produced classic winners like Preakness winner Bernardini and
Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches. I love his :57 4/5 B five
furlong move entering the race. Jones worked Hard Spun in a similar
time prior to his second place finish.
He should get a great trip breaking from the six post. I love that
most the other “choices” are hung on the outside. This gives him a
slight advantage in my eyes. The only thing I don’t like about
Friesan Fire is that he hasn’t raced in seven weeks. The same
strategy almost won the race for Hard Spun, so I’ll trust that Larry
Jones knows what he is doing. Friesan Fire will be draped in roses
on the first Saturday in May. He will be the winner of the 135th
running of the Kentucky Derby.
Second Place: Dunkirk
I had a tough time deciding between this colt and Friesan Fire. I
thought about it for hours and ultimately decided Friesan Fire had
more going for him. I would not be surprised in the slightest if
this son of Unbridled’s Song was the victor. He ran a very game
second to Quality Road last out in the Florida Derby and has every
right to improve. His BSF of 108 for that run is the second highest
of any colt in the race.
Edgar Prado has plenty of experience and he won the Kentucky Derby
in 2006 on Barbaro. He rode Dunkirk to a maiden breaking victory but
did not ride him in his other two races. Todd Pletcher is 0 for 21
in the Kentucky Derby, and I’m sure he wants nothing more than to
get that monkey off his back. Dunkirk stands a great chance to take
the Kentucky Derby.
Others: I Want Revenge, General Quarters,
Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy
I would consider using these horses in the exotics with Friesan Fire
and Dunkirk. I Want Revenge ran one of the best damn races of the
year when he won the Wood Memorial after missing the break. I
believe he is a threat to win, but I also think he has a chance of
bouncing. General Quarters reaffirmed his ability when he won the
Bluegrass Stakes, and also looked good when winning the Sam F. Davis
Stakes. He could get in there at a juicy price.
Regal Ransom could be on the improve and he won the UAE Derby in his
last start. I love his odds at 30-1. Hold Me Back is one of the best
closers in the race. His jockey has won this race three times and
will move him up. Chocolate Candy has been running behind some of
the best horses in the country all year, and he ran better than
anyone in the Santa Anita Derby where he finished second. Mike Smith
will give him a chilly ride.
Betting the Kentucky Derby on $100
$6 WIN on Friesan Fire
$10 OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE: Rachel Alexanda/Friesan Fire, Dunkirk ($20
total)
$2 EXACTA: Friesan Fire, Dunkirk/ Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, I Want
Revenge, General Quarters, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy ($20 total)
$1 TRIFECTA: Friesan Fire, Dunkirk/ Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, I Want
Revenge, General Quarters/ Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge,
General Quarters, Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy ($30
total)
$1 SUPERFECTA: Friesan Fire/Dunkirk, I Want Revenge/ Dunkirk, I Want
Revenge, General Quarters, Chocolate Candy/ Dunkirk, I Want Revenge,
General Quarters, Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy ($24
total)
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