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KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
The Kentucky Derby is on the horizon, and the
tension is already boiling. The field of 20 has worked hard all
year, and is nearly set. 20 is a large pool of horses to try and
select a winner from. Every year there are several pretenders who
don’t belong, and it’s important to know who the players are, and
who they aren’t. Let’s narrow the field down to the top ten
contenders.
#1 Quality Road- I think this colt could be a freak of
nature. He wins in dominant fashion, and has a very beneficial
stalking style. His last two wins in the Fountain of Youth and
Florida Derby both earned him BSF’s over 110. He is one of two
horses I believe have an outside shot at the elusive Triple Crown.
The sky is the limit.
#2 I Want Revenge- This is the other colt I think is
capable of taking home the Triple Crown. He was awe inspiring his
last two races, the Gotham, and the Wood Memorial. He didn’t break a
sweat when he won the Gotham by 8 ½ lengths. His Wood Memorial win
was marked by his ability to overcome a bad start and weave through
traffic. He could be something special.
#3 Friesan Fire- Larry Jones knows a thing or two
about the Kentucky Derby; his horse finished second in 2007 and
2008. He brings this son of A.P. Indy to Churchill Downs after a
powerful win in the Louisiana Derby. He is one of a handful of colts
who have a proven able to run on traditional dirt, and he could be
peaking after seven weeks rest.
#4 Dunkirk- Todd Pletcher has won the Eclipse Award
for trainer more times than I can count, but is 0 for 21 in the
Kentucky Derby. He has done a great job with this colt, and will
have him cranked to the gills on the First Saturday in May. The
closer has been improving with each start, and could be set to peak
in the Kentucky Derby.
#5 Papa Clem- How could you not like a colt who is 1
for 1 over fast dirt with a 101 BSF and $600k in earnings? That win
came in his last start, the Arkansas Derby. The son of Smart Strike
has the services of Rafael Bejarano who I believe is the best jockey
in the land. He is improving, but I’m slightly worried he may have
peaked last out.
#6 Pioneerof The Nile- Garrett Gomez chose this colt
over two others in the race. The son of Empire Maker won the Santa
Anita Derby last out and was very frisky early on, racing much
closer to the pace he usually does. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the
Kentucky Derby three times in the past twelve years. This colt
couldn’t possibly be in better hands.
#7 Regal Ransom- This regally bred son of Distorted
Humor showed his speed has plenty of staying power last out when he
took the UAE Derby against southern hemisphere foes who were older
than him. Alan Garcia seems to know the colt well and should give
him a great ride. He could win or hit the board at odds of 25-1 or
greater.
#8 Hold Me Back- This son of Giant’s Causeway shocked
everyone when he won the Lanes End after being on the bench for over
two months. He followed that run up with a second place finish in
the Bluegrass Stakes, and he will have the services of three time
Kentucky Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux. Keep an eye out for
the closer.
#9 Desert Party- This colt is one of two shipping on
from Dubai, the other being Regal Ransom. His sire, Street Cry,
produced 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. He was a game
second last out in the UAE Derby. I can excuse that loss because he
has been running stellar all year and was bound to have a hiccup. He
is in with a shot for the sheikh.
#10 Musket Man- Eibar Coa took this colt over
Bluegrass winner General Quarters. Ironically that colt is the only
one to ever beat Musket Man. His best win came last out when he took
the Illinois Derby. He did it with relative ease and proved that
distance limitations won’t be a problem. He will be a big price and
could run even bigger.
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