Top Sportsbooks
Reduced Juice wagering only at 5Dimes - A Top Rated Bettorsworld Recommended Sportsbook - Click Here to sign up! |
Kentucky Derby Handicapping
Systems - Trends - Tips
2011
The goal in all wagering circumstances is to defeat the favorite in order to
gain a more favorable payout. This rings true in the Kentucky Derby and in all
horse racing events. Statistically speaking favorites win only 30% of the time
and are thus a poor wager given the odds. Horses from every end of the wagering
spectrum have won the Kentucky Derby. In 2009 we saw Mine That Bird win at odds
of 50-1. The year before that the solidly favored Big Brown took the Derby at
odds of around 5/2. Let’s look at some historical trends for the
Kentucky Derby.
Post position is very important in a field with 20 horses. There will be a
cavalry charge to the first turn, and horses will be able to save or lose ground
depending on their post position. The race can be won or lost in the first turn.
Only three horses have won the race from the 1 hole since 1960, and one of those
winners was the speedy Winning Colors. The 1 hole is difficult because the
jockey either has to send early with speed or take back to last. There really
isn’t an in between. Every other horse in the race will be trying to get over to
the rail in order to save ground, and the horse in the 1 hole can get cut off
very easily. The extreme outside 16-20 is tough, but not as bad as positions
1-3. Most trainers would tell you they would prefer to be anywhere from 6-10.
This is not a hard and fast rule though. Sometimes a horse is just much the best
as Big Brown was when he won going away from the 20 hole.
A popular system for determining the winner of the Kentucky Derby is to look at
Dosage numbers. These numbers are determined by looking strictly at pedigree.
Sires referred to as “chefs de race” appear constantly in almost every horses
bloodlines. The system says that a horse cannot win the race with a Dosage Index
over 4.0, but has been proved wrong when Giacomo won in 2005. It has been very
strong historically, but is not a fool proof system. Some horses with good DI
numbers this year are Lookin at Lucky, Interactif, Awesome Act, and Noble’s
Promise.
Popular thought says that a horse cannot win the Kentucky Derby if he is a
gelding, but this has been proved wrong on several occasions. For those that
don’t know, gelding is when a horse is castrated. This can be done because of a
medical issue, or a colt may just be too focused on the fillies. Often times a
horse is more calm and less hard to deal with after being gelded. Top horses
typically won’t be gelded, but it is possible that they weren’t considered a
high class runner at the time the surgery took place. Horses can go bad
overnight and they can also get really good over night. This is true for
geldings too.
2009's winner Mine That Bird was a gelding, and Funny Cide was also castrated
before he took the Roses. Clyde Van Doosen and
Vagrant were also geldings that won the Kentucky Derby. If you like a gelding in
the Kentucky Derby you disregard the naysayers and give him a shot.
In the end superstitions and odd beliefs run abound whether it be about post
positions, dosage, or gelding. If you truly like a horse you shouldn’t let any
of those things bother you. The only rule is that there are no rules. Anybody
can win the Kentucky Derby!