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Honduras vs. Chile
Prediction - Analysis
6/16/10
Much like the American Sports we traditionally handicap, there is a distinct "talent gap" among the teams in the FIFA World Cup Tournament. That gap may not be as obvious to the casual observer. Not as obvious as say, college football. In college football, a score of 42-3 generally means total dominance. In soccer, the games are low scoring. A 3-0 soccer score may very well be compared to a 42-3 college football score.
In looking over the first round matches we think we've found a game that offers us some nice betting value and a talent gap to go along with it. That game is Chile vs. Honduras and our selection is going to be on Chile.
The general take on this match among soccer "experts" is that Honduras is simply lucky to be here while Chile deserves to be here. We'd have to agree. One of the most important variables in soccer betting is "current form". Or, how a team has played leading up to this match. Honduras hasn't won an official match since January and all of their losses, and a couple of ties, have come against teams that did not qualify for the World Cup. They also played a couple of practice games while training for the World Cup in Germany against basically, minor leaguers and were very unimpressive in narrow wins. Chile meanwhile, comes in on a positive note winning games against Israel, Northern Ireland and Zambia.
Chile is the youngest of all 32 teams in the tournament. They are a rapid-fire, counter-attacking team with speed that comes at you from all directions. Honduras looks to be outmanned here. They just don't have the guns to compete with Chile here.
Spain is expected to win group H. Heck, they are one of the favorites to win it all. Which makes this match all the more important for Chile and Honduras. Chile is going to want to take care of business against the likes of Honduras rather than being put in a must win situation when they face Spain in their final game, pretty much a certain loss.
Perhaps the best indicator of the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams is the odds to win the tournament going in. While neither is expected to win it all, Honduras is given virtually no shot. In fact they are the longest shots of the entire tournament, along with New Zealand and Korea DPR at a whopping 750/1. That's right, pluck down $100 on Honduras to win the Cup and if they do you'll be rewarded with $75,000!! By contrast, Chile is 66/1. Out of 32 teams, that means there are only 10 teams or so ahead of Chile according to the odds.
We think we have some nice value here with the better all around team which also happens to be in much better "current form".
You have a few different options for betting on this match. You can lay -1 goal with Chile at close to even money. Or you can take Chile straight up and lay in the -180 range. It's important to remember that these wagers are REGULATION TIME ONLY. It's also important to remember that should you bet Chile straight up, and the game is tied after regulation, you lose. This is because the draw option is also offered at a price of around +280.
We are going to lay -1 with Chile at a price of -105.
Here are the odds on this match from a couple if our top rated sportsbooks.
Chile -1 -105
Honduras +1 -125
or
Chile -185
Honduras +475
Draw +285
over 2.5 goals +100
under 2.5 goals -130
Here are the odds on the same game from Sportsbook.com
Chile -181
Honduras +500
Draw +275
over 2.5 goals -105
under 2.5 goals -133
Sportsbook.com is not offering a goal line on this match.