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2010 Kentucky Derby Head to Head Matchups
4/26/10
Horse racing operates under a pari-mutuel wagering system where bettors are
effectively betting against each other and not the track or “bookmaker”. The
amount of money bet on horses through this system effects and determines their
odds. Betting at the track certainly has its advantages, but wagering with an
online bookmaker is even better.
Nearly every online bookmaker offers some sort of refund on wagers, and they
also have special wager types you wont and can’t find at the track. One of my
favorite types of wagers they offer is the “head to head” matchup. To win this
wager you must determine who will finish ahead of the other, Horse A or Horse B.
There will be plenty of money to make on the Kentucky Derby with this wager
type. The odds we are using are from
www.sportsbook.com.
Let’s take a look!
American Lion (-115) vs Awesome Act (-115) - We absolutely love
this matchup. American Lion is the winner of the Illinois Derby. He dominated
that race in wire to wire fashion, but he controlled a slow pace the entire way.
He had a nice campaign as a two-year-old, but he is light years away from the
best horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby. I expect him to go to the lead and
fade. On the other side of the coin, we have Wood Memorial runner up Awesome
Act. The son of Awesome Again has spectacular pedigree and should get the
distance with ease. He will be firing late and the pace could be hot and heavy
for him. We think Awesome Act is a slam dunk play at -115.
Endorsement (-160) vs Conveyance (+130) - These two colts were the
1-2 finishers respectively in the $800k Sunland Derby. In that race Endorsement
ranged up to the outside and breezed past the previously unbeaten Conveyance. We
think Conveyance could turn the tables this time around. He has the benefit of
being in the barn of Bob Baffert who is basically the Kentucky Derby wizard. Bob
will have him ready to fire his best shot. Endorsement could be a one hit wonder
as the Sunland Derby was his coming out party. It will be fun to see who wins
this matchup.
Endorsement (-130) vs Rule (even) - The Sunland Derby winner
Endorsement is highly thought of after his single big win, but Rule has been
doing big things his entire career. He took the $750k Delta Jackpot at the age
of 2, and returned at 3 to win the Sam Davis Stakes with a fair amount of ease
over a decent field. He was sent off the favorite in the Florida Derby, but
faded to third after setting a tough pace. He will be a huge threat to win the
Kentucky Derby if he can get a decent stalking trip. We have to favor him at a
better price over the lesser experienced Endorsement.
Dublin (-145) vs Super Saver (+115) - This matchup pits the second
place finisher in the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver) against the third place
finisher (Dublin) in that race. Dublin is a nice colt who won the Champagne
Stakes at the age of 2 for trainer D Wayne Lukas. He is a son of Preakness and
Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex. Super Saver romped home to win the Kentucky
Jockey Club at 2, and was third in the Tampa Bay Derby. We like his pedigree and
we think he could be peaking in this race. Dublin lacks a “killer instinct” and
he just can’t seem to go for the jugular. We would rate Super Saver a solid play
at a better price.