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Kentucky Derby Favorite Profile
Lookin at Lucky
4/26/10
With the recent scratch of Derby Favorite Eskendereya, the spotlight is now on the new likely favorite, Lookin At Lucky. Here is our profile of the new favorite.
If there is one person that knows what it takes to get a horse ready to run
on the first Saturday in May it is Bob Baffert. The wizard has won the Kentucky
Derby 3 times with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, and War Emblem in
2002 to go along with numerous others who have made the field of 20 under
Baffert’s training.
In 2010 Baffert has two runners to saddle in the Kentucky Derby with Conveyance
and Lookin At Lucky, but there is no doubt which one Baffert is most excited
about running. Baffert has been pointing the 3 year old son of Smart Strike
towards this race since last summer and when Baffert is this high on a horse he
is rarely wrong, and once again he is right on the money about Lookin At Lucky
his “Franchise” horse.
It’s easy to see why he was so excited about this horse from early on with
Lookin At Lucky winning his first 4 starts including the G2 Best Pal, G1 Del Mar
Futurity, and G1 Norfolk. If not for starting from the 13 hole and having a bad
trip in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile he would have ended his 2 yr old campaign a
perfect 6 for 6 including a win in the G1 Cash Call Futurity to close out the
year. Even without winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Lookin At Lucky still won
the Eclipse Award for 2 year old colt making him the early Derby favorite coming
into 2010.
After that grueling 6 race 2 yr old campaign Baffert gave his star colt a break
after the Cash Call Futurity, and decided to wait until March to give Lookin At
Lucky his 3 year old debut in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. This was Lookin At
Lucky’s first start on conventional dirt, so there were a lot of question marks
surrounding him going into this race, but once again he passed the test beating
Derby contender Noble’s Promise right at the wire by a head after clipping heels
earlier in the race
. Baffert decided to ship his colt back to Southern California for his final
Derby prep in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, but things didn’t go according to plan.
In the Santa Anita Derby Lookin At Lucky had a terrible trip getting shut off by
a tiring horse coming into the stretch which killed any chance he had at
winning. That wasn’t the ideal race for Lookin At Lucky to use to prep for the
big one, but with that bad trip we can give him the benefit of the doubt and
just draw a line through that race. Now with all his preps out of the way and
all the serious pre Derby training just about over its time to look and see if
Lookin At Lucky has what you want in a Derby horse. Can he get the tough Derby
distance? Does he have the right running style? Is he coming into the race the
right way and is he battle tested?
1. When you look at Lookin At Lucky’s breeding the first thing you notice is he
is sired by the most versatile sire in the world Smart Strike. Smart Strike has
foaled stakes winners from 6 furlong sprints on dirt to 12 furlong routes on the
turf. Most notably he sired 2 time Horse of the Year Curlin who could run all
day. He also sired 2009 Arkansas Derby winner and Derby contender Papa Clem and
2007 Breeder’s Cup Turf winner English Channel. If Lookin At Lucky does get beat
in the Kentucky Derby it will not be because he has distance limitations.
2. Usually we prefer our Derby horse to be closer to the pace then Lookin At
Lucky usually is, but we have seen in the past few years with horses like Street
Sense and Mine That Bird that you can come from way out of it and still get the
job done. Also, with horses like Sidney’s Candy, Line of David, and Conveyance
there should be plenty of pace for Lookin At Lucky to run at.
3. When it comes to being battle tested Lookin At Lucky passes that test with
flying colors. He had an amazing 2 yr old campaign winning 5 out of 6 races, and
if it wasn’t for bad trips in the Breeder’s Cup and the Santa Anita Derby he
very well could be heading into the Derby a perfect 8 for 8. Baffert realized he
had asked his colt for a lot as a 2 year old which is why he only gave him two
starts as a 3 yr old which means the Derby will be Lookin At Lucky’s 3rd race
off the layoff which is normally where a horse runs his peak race. We aren’t
crazy about him coming into the race off a 3rd place finish getting beat 6
lengths, but he had a legitimate excuse in that race. With his dazzling 6
furlong workout in 1:12 at Churchill Downs it looks like Lookin At Lucky is glad
to be back on the dirt which Baffert says is his preferred surface, so we expect
it to be all systems go for Baffert and his “Franchise” horse come May 1st.