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Top Derby Contender Sidney’s Candy
4/27/10
Coming into the New Year when everyone was trying to figure out who the top contenders for the Run for the Roses were going to be no one would have thrown in John Sadler’s 3 year old colt Sidney’s Candy, but a lot has changed from then to now. This 3 year old son of Candy Ride showed promise early on breaking his maiden in his 2nd career start by 4 lengths at Del Mar and earning a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. After finishing 4th by 7 in an allowance in December Sadler had no problem running Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita which shows that from the start he knew exactly just how talented his colt was.
Sidney’s Candy led from start to finish in the San Vicente winning by just over
4 lengths and showed that he was going to have a say in the 3 year old Derby
Preps coming up in Southern California. From there he went on to win the G2 San
Felipe by ½ length, but the best was yet to come in the G1 Santa Anita Derby
where Sidney’s Candy put on a show winning going away by 4 lengths. Lookin At
Lucky lost all hope of winning the race when he got shut off on the rail by a
tiring horse, but it’s very doubtful that he would have been good enough to beat
Sidney’s Candy on that day even with a perfect trip.
Sidney’s Candy just keeps getting better and better with every start, and he is
coming into the Derby as good as you could possibly ask for as a trainer. There
have been question marks surrounding the son of Candy Ride though since he has
never run on a conventional dirt track because all of his races have been in
Southern California. Let’s see how he stacks up with the other Derby criteria
that we are looking for:
1. There are a few sires that when we see a horse was foaled by that particular
sire we never question whether the horse will be able to get the two turn
distance and Candy Ride is one of those sires. Candy Ride is most well known for
his dominating win over Medaglia d’Oro by 3 ¼ breaking the track record at Del
Mar in his first start in the United States. If you look at some of Candy Ride’s
top foals you can tell his offspring don’t mind a route of ground either. He
sired the 2010 Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, and with Sidney’s
Candy making the Derby field this will be the 2nd year that Candy Ride has a
foal in the Run for the Roses. Last year Chocolate Candy won the California
Derby and El Camino Real Derby and finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby before
finishing a solid 5th in the Kentucky Derby behind upset winner Mine That Bird.
Then if you look at his breeding on the other side his broodmare sire is the
legendary sire Storm Cat, so you will not find many horses that are bred to like
this Derby distance more then Sidney’s Candy. His breeding also helps us to try
and answer one of the question marks surrounding him on whether he can run on
conventional dirt or not. His sire Candy Ride obviously didn’t mind running on
the dirt, but with his offspring it seems like some like synthetics (Chocolate
Candy and Evita Argentina) and some like dirt (Capt Candyman Can). His broodmare
sire Storm Cat has sired countless dirt stakes winners over the years also. It
doesn’t appear the switch to conventional dirt will affect his performance in
the Derby, but that switch is something that you never really know how a horse
will react until he tries it.
2. Much like with Bob Baffert, trainer John Sadler also has two horses to saddle
for the Kentucky Derby, but unlike with Baffert who has two horses with
completely different running styles, Sadler has two horses that both have early
speed. Although Sidney’s Candy has led from start to finish in all three of his
starts as a 3 yr old if he is going to win the Derby he is going to have to rate
behind the horses who are dueling for the early lead. In both of his two turn
races this year he has been able to get away with an easy lead which is one of
the question marks surrounding him. How will he react when there are other
horses that are determined to get the lead? Will he be able to sit back and
relax off of those horses or will he get caught in that early speed duel? We
believe that he will be able to sit and relax off the speed horses, but until he
is asked to do it in a race it’s difficult to try and predict how he will react.
3. If you look at all 3 of the top contenders for the 2010 Run For The Roses all
3 are coming into this race battle tested as not only 3 year olds, but also 2
year olds. Sidney’s Candy didn’t have the award winning 2 yr old campaign that
Lookin At Lucky did, but he was able to get a solid foundation to build on as a
3 yr old and it showed in his early races in 2010. He was ready to roll in his
stakes debut in the San Vicente, and he was able to build off each race going
into the next one. If he is able to build off his last start in the Santa Anita
Derby and improve off that monster effort he will be difficult to handle in the
Kentucky Derby.
Sidney’s Candy will be asked to do a few things he has never done before in the
Kentucky Derby. He will be asked to rate and relax behind the speed horses early
on and he will be asked to make the switch from the synthetic surfaces in
Southern California to the conventional dirt at Churchill Downs. Out of the Top
3 contenders that we have looked at Sidney’s Candy has the most question marks
surrounding him going into the race, but it also looks like out of the three he
is the one that looks to be coming into a peak performance. Most handicappers
prefer to choose a Derby horse that has very few question marks surrounding him
because being able to maneuver a clean trip in a field of 20 is hard enough. If
he handles those question marks he could win the Kentucky Derby at a solid price
of around 6-1.