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Air Force

vs.

Michigan

Pick with Analysis

9/8/12

The Michigan Wolverines host the Air Force Falcons in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm est. in a game that can be seen on ABC. Michigan opened as a 21.5 point favorite at the worlds largest sportsbook, sportsbook.ag and currently sits at -21 at most major offshore books, including 5 Dimes and SBG Global.

As Michigan was getting pounded by Alabama the other night, the first thought that came to mind was that Michigan would be a side to look at this week. That can be said about just about any team that takes a spanking the week before. No team is ever as bad, or as good, as they looked the previous week. There's been lots of chatter about Michigan being overrated, Michigan being lousy, etc. etc.  But most of that chatter comes from losing bettors. Those that took Michigan +14 and lost last week.

Michigan won 11 games last year. They returned 6 on the offense and 7 on the defense and recruit some of the best talent in the Big 10. They'll be in some big games this year and will be a threat to win each and every game the rest of the way. We're not saying they will win them all. Just that they have the talent to beat any other team they face the rest of the way, on any given day,

As far as this game against Air Force though, our plans kinda went out the window when this line came up over 3 touchdowns. We were hoping to gain some added value as a result of last weeks Alabama game, but apparently they get a pass, because, after all, it was Alabama. Unless we get a major program playing a team that doesn't belong on the field with them, such as North Carolina playing Elon last week, a 62-0 win, we have a hard time laying over 3 touchdowns.

Air Force lost plenty of starters, returning just 6 overall, but then, player turnover at Air Force is always high. Yet they manage to field respectable teams year in and year out. It was just two short years ago that they almost knocked off Oklahoma, losing 27-24. Last year they weren't great, but went toe to toe with both TCU and Boise with the only real blowout coming at the hands of Notre Dame. They produced almost identical offensive numbers as those of the Wolverines, averaging 34 points per game and over 450 yards, albeit against a schedule that was about 6 points weaker.

Michigan is the better, more talented team. They also should be extremely motivated after last weeks blowout. We expect a different Michigan team this week and wouldn't be surprise to see the Wolverines roll, with or without Fitzgerald Toussaint who was suspended last week. But we can't lay the big number. Air Force can score some points and that makes them dangerous with such a generous spot. We'll put this out as a weak lean towards the Air Force side here. Air Force +21

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