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Tampa Bay

vs.

New England

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

9/22/13

Tom Brady and the 2-0 New England Patriots host the 0-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday in a game that GTBets Sportsbook has the Patriots listed as -7 point favorites with a total of 43.5. Now, the Bucs are 0-2 by way of losing by 1 to the Jets and by 2 to the Saints. The Patriots are 2-0 as a result of a 2 point win over the Bills and a 3 point win over the Jets. Vastly different won/loss records, but by a hair. Either of these teams could be 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1. It's been that tight.

The public of course, likes to imagine that this is the Patriots of the last several years. They are always the last to react to changes. They just know Brady + Belichick =  money in the bank, based on past history. They have shown that by backing the Pats at sportsbook.com as 73% of all wagers on this game have come in on the Pats. 95% of the action is also on the under.

We were high on the Bucs heading into this season and we aren't 't ready just yet to abandon ship. The Patriots and Brady may get that offense humming by the time we reach the halfway point of this season, but right now it would appear that they are still getting the kinks out and it may continue to be a good opportunity to buck the Pats. This Bucs defense looks solid and a full touchdown is hard to pass up in this spot. We'll take our chances with the Bucs. Tamp Bay +7

 

BUCS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England

PATS
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 18 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

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