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Week 8

NFL Pick



The Lions host the Cowboys Sunday in a 1pm est. kickoff in Detroit. The Lions are currently -3 point favorites with juice attached, across the board at most sportsbooks. Which means if you like Detroit and the -3, you'll be laying -115 or in most cases -120 whereas if you like the Cowboys, you'll get +3 at even money or +105. This is also why we strongly suggest an account at 5 dimes sportsbook as they offer reduced juice wagering. What you save is what you earn. Let the squares lay more juice while you're getting the best possible price!

This game is as even as it gets which explains the -3 line with juice for the Lions, a tad more than standard home field advantage. If you were to line up all of the major statistical categories side by side, you'd find that these two teams are pretty even in most of them right down to both teams being +5 in turnover margin.

We can find a slight edge for the Cowboys in terms of making better use of their yards gained as well as being a tad more stingy defensively. We can see this, at a glance, by simply looking at the yards per point numbers. Offensively the Cowboys offensive number is 12.3 while the Lions number is 14.5. Defensively, the Cowboys number is 17.8 while the Lions number is 16.6. If we used those numbers to make a line on this game, the Cowboys would be 3 points better than the Lions. If we then gave the Lions 3 points for the home field, our ypp line for this game would be pick. So, an edge for the Cowboys, when comparing that to the actual line.

Our score prediction model agrees. When using full season data, it has the Cowboys on top by a score of 31-28. We're also able to take only the last 4 games and run our model and when we do so, the margin shrinks, but still has the Cowboys on top by a score of 32-31.

So with those numbers showing a slight edge for the Cowboys, we'll go ahead and make a recommendation on a very capable Dallas team in this spot. It's close though. This one should be one of the better games of the day. Bottom line here is, anytime you can get a solid team as an underdog in a game they have great potential to win straight up, you've got yourself a good bet. Cowboys +3

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