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The 5-2 Bengals host the the best team in New York on Sunday. That would be the 4-3 Jets. The Bengals are currently -6.5 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 41.5 but there are also some -6's out there so make sure you shop for the best number. If you're not using multiple sportsbooks, you're hurting your chances of becoming a winning bettor!
The Jets have certainly surprised people this year. Most felt the Jets would be winless and that coach Rex Ryan would be long gone by this point. But the Jets have not only won four games, they have also been in all of their losses with the exception of the 38-13 loss to the Titans. Their other two losses were by a field goal to the Pats and 19-6 to the Steelers. Safe to say the Jets are a live dog.
When looking at the yards per point numbers for these two teams we see that offensively, they are about the same. Both have offensive ypp numbers of roughly 17, which is poor. But where the Jets come up short in this matchup is defensively where their ypp number is 13 compared to the Bengals number of 17.
We can forget who the teams are for a minute, and simply look at those numbers and come to the conclusion at an NFL team with a ypp number of 17 offensively is going to have a hard time moving the ball on a defense with the same number. While a team with a 17 offensively should be able to move the ball better than they usually do, against a defense with a ypp number of 13. Remember, these numbers tell us how well a team converts yards into points. A number of 17 offensively means that team scores 1 point for every 17 yards it travels.
Most have this game pegged as a close one, and why not, most Jet games have been close this year. On top of that, the Bengals don't seem to have the type of offense that can extend a margin. But we're going to back the Bengals here. We think the Bengals may have an easier time than their used to putting points on the board while the Jets should struggle. Our NFL model agrees with us as it predicts a 24-14 Bengals win. Also note the Jets -11 turnover margin number.
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