West Virginia
vs.
Oklahoma State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/25/14
West Virginia has shown they can keep Games close against Top 10 teams and took it one further last Saturday getting a big win over Baylor. Oklahoma State kept things close with Florida State in their first Game, but were blown out by TCU last weekend. Playing at home, the Cowboys opened as -4.5 point favorites at betonline, the 1st sportsbook to post lines each week, but that number has moved in the Mountaineers all the way down to -1. Note that as of Tuesday WVA running back Rushel Shell is listed as questionable.
Considering the Games that each of these teams has come off of, this line is a bit interesting. Not to mention, West Virginia won this matchup last season 30-21 as a 19.5-point home underdog. WVU has a favorable Schedule the rest of the way with TCU and Kansas State both at home, while they travel to unranked teams. As made evident by this line, not many people are giving credit to the Mountaineers yet, but are focusing more on a letdown from them.
However, the same can’t be said about OK State even though their only three Conference wins are against teams with a combined 1-11 Conference record. Sure, they fought with Florida State in the opener, but that was with J.W. Walsh at QB. since Daxx Garman has taken over, this Cowboys teams hasn’t looked all that great and it showed in the 42-9 loss to TCU.
West Virginia is slowly looking like one of the better offenses in the conference. Clint Trickett is having a nice season completing 68.2% of his passes to go with 15 TDs and five INTs. Kevin white (1,020 yards, 7 TDs) is one of the best receivers in the country and this core drew a ridiculous amount of penalties from Baylor last Game. And then in the running Game Rushel Shell (503 yards, 6 TDs) is a solid running back that can’t be ignored.
WVU’s defense is still a question, but showed up against Baylor at home. That type of play has to continue on the road now.
The Cowboys offense has struggled lately with Daxx Garman tossing seven interceptions in the last Four Games and he’s only completing 55.4% of his passes on the year. He also only has two TDs in the past three Games. Their running Game is mediocre with Desmond Roland (475 yards, 7 TDs) as the lead back.
On the defensive end, the Cowboys got burned multiple times by TCU and have not allowed less than 20 points in a Conference Game yet. In addition, they were outgained by lowly Kansas in the yardage department and needed a kickoff return to get that win. Stopping Trickett and White will be difficult.
Sometimes you have to be willing to back a team when it looks as if they are coming apart at the seams. Certainly, simple common sense, judging from last week, would suggest that West Virginia, fresh of their win over unbeaten Baylor, is the right side over an Oklahoma State team that was blown off the field last week. But most teams rally together after an embarrassing loss. (Think Patriots getting blown out by KC then blowing out Cinci the following week.) We don’t think Oklahoma State is as bad as they looked last week and look for a huge effort this week at home. Oklahoma State -1