Miami Dolphins
vs.
Buffalo Bills
NFL Pick
By Jason Green
12/24/16
Not many though that this late season AFC East Game would have playoff implications for both teams, but it does. Miami currently has the last playoffs spot and they control their destiny while the Bills need to win out and they may need help. The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine Games, iNCluding their last two, but QB Ryan Tennehill is still out with a knee injury and he will not go in this Game. Longtime backup Matt Moore will get the call and he played well in the blowout win over the Jets in Miami’s last Game. In the middle of the season at home the Dolphins beat the Bills 28-25.
The Bills snapped their 2-Game losing streak in their last Game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. RB LeSean McCoy was named to the Pro Bowl and he leads a rushing offense that is the top ranked until in the NFL averaging 163.6 rushing yards per Game. The run Game is key for Buffalo since they ranks 2nd to last in the NFL in passing yards per Game.
The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games facing the Dolphins and they have covered the spread in their last 4 Games facing them at home.
In the Dolphins last Game they crushed the New York Jets beating them 34-13 where they easily covered the spread as a 2.5-point road favorite.
In the Bills last Game they beat the winless Cleveland Browns 33-13 where they covered as a 10.5-point home favorite.
In the Dolphins blowout win over the Jets they only had 57 more total yards, but they forced 4 turnovers. Moore passed for 236 yards with a career high 4 TD and 1 INT with Jarvis LAndry having over 100 receiving yards. One coNCern has to be the play of RB Jay Ajayi, as he has struggled in the last 2 Games in which he failed to average over 3 yards per carry.. In the win over Buffalo earlier this season he rushed for 214 yards.
Ajayi may have another big Game facing the Bills, as they only rank 27th in the league in run defense while ranking a solid 8th in the league in pass defense.
The Bills totally dominated the Browns, shocker, in their last Game with 451 total yards while holding them to 269 yards. Buffalo rushed for 280 yards in the Game with McCoy going for 153 with 2 TD and QB Tyron Taylor passed for 174 yards with a TD and no INT. Miami has similar stats on D as the Bills, as they rank 11th against the pass, but only 30th against the run.
Miami is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East, and in their last 4 Games the posted total has gone Over every time.
Buffalo is 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games overall, and in their last 4 Games the posted total has gone Over every time.
Jason’s Pick: Will Moore have another solid Game? Which RB will have the better Game facing suspect run defenses? Big questions, but at home I have to take Buffalo with a hot McCoy in the backfield, as they will win and cover keeping their playoff hopes alive for another week.