Dollar General
Bowl Pick
Buffalo
vs.
Troy
12/22/18
The Dollar General Bowl doesn’t feature two Conference winners, but both Buffalo and Troy were near the top of their respective conferences most of the season. The Bulls, with a more potent offense, were -2 point favorites with an over/under of 51.5 a week before the Game played in Mobile, Alabama.
Buffalo (9-4 ATS) is all about offense and that worked most of the season en route to 10 wins until it didn’t in the MAC title Game, losing 30-29 to NIU. The Bulls scored so much that seven of their wins came by double digits, averaging close to 35 points per Game.
Troy (8-3-1 ATS) also had a stout season, but was slightly more under the radar because it’s become a norm for this team to be good. The Trojans upset Nebraska on the road early on, but they also slipped against Liberty and late against Appalachian State, which is why they didn’t make the Sun Belt title Game.
Troy’s defense that allowed 21.2 points per Game will be key in this matchup and that’ll likely decide the Game. It rarely gave up more than 20 points, though some of that can be attributed to the conference. The Trojans held Nebraska to 19 points, but that came earlier in the season when that team was still figuring itself out. They allow just 3.3 yards per carry, which isn’t much worse than Northern Illinois, the team that beat Buffalo in the MAC title Game.
If Buffalo can’t consistently find room on the ground, that’s where the problems start because then it can’t hold onto leads. The Bulls have ran on everyone with Jaret Patterson (946 yards, 13 TDs) and Kevin Marks (805 yards, 12 TDs) and that’ll be their first route of attack. Whether that works or not, quarterback Tyree Jackson will still air it out plenty and while he had 27 passing touchdowns, only completed 55.1% of his passes to go with 12 interceptions. Maybe the best thing for Buffalo is that Troy’s pass defense wasn’t as good, allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, though it had 17 interceptions, one of the best rates in the country.
There aren’t many offenses like Buffalo’s in the Sun Belt, so it’s definitely a new test. The other test is for Troy to Scoreagainst a mediocre Buffalo defense. The Bulls weren’t bad allowing 24.7 points per Game, but they were mediocre in most categories and never fully held down an offense unless it was a really bad team.
The task falls to sophomore quarterback Sawyer Smith who filled in halfway through the season and kept the offense moving. He wasn’t as good as original starter Kaleb Barker, but still did enough in most Games. Smith’s issue was turning the ball over as he finished with 10 touchdowns compared to six picks and two of those interceptions came in the loss to App. State. Because of that, Troy will lean on running back B.J. Smith (1,093 yards, 12 TDs) against a defense that gave up 165 rushing yards per Game and 4.2 yards per carry. The issue is that Smith didn’t top Four yards per carry in the final three Games because defenses knew that Sawyer Smith wasn’t going to carve them up.
This is a matchup between teams that want to play differently, just like in the MAC title Game. Expect points, but also expect a close Game that won’t be decided until the Fourth quarter. The Bulls haven’t covered in their last five at a neutral site, but are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 overall, yet only 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against the MAC.
Our Pick – Troy +2