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American Idol Predictions
Season 10
5/25/11
Here's a thought. Scotty McCreery has been so overwhelmingly popular this season, that American Idol producers had to work extra hard to make the finale exciting. They needed to add the element of surprise. They needed to plant the seed of doubt in viewers minds. After all, it's reality TV. The biggest reality TV show in the world. It's their job to build suspense, and that they did.
The producers obviously know how the voting has gone all season. They knew they had their work cut out for them. We've been handicapping American Idol for many years. Since the 2nd year actually. McCreery has been one of the most popular contestants we have seen.
Start with the very beginning of the show last night. What was that all about? They have a Doctor take the stage to explain to everyone that Lauren Alaina blew a vocal chord. Huh? Talk about stacking the deck. Talk about a sympathy vote. There's no way the show would have done that, if McCreery wasn't so far ahead in the voting season to date.
We've mentioned many times here how scripted this show is. Right from the get go last night it was obvious which way this script was heading. If only we could have placed wagers while the show was in progress on who the judges would give it to. That they did as all three judges gave it to Lauren Alaina. They succeeded in adding suspense to the final show tonight.
Oh, and real quick, while we have a chance, is there anything more annoying than watching Lauren Alaina's mother soak up the spotlight? She clearly enjoys the attention more than her daughter.
Back to the show......the odds have dropped since yesterday. McCreery was a huge 7-1 favorite going in. He is now -400, which is 4/1. You would need to wager $400 to win $100. Lauren Alaina was +400 or more yesterday and is now just +200, wager $100 to win $200.
All the polls we monitor, favor McCreery. In past years, we have seen some landslide wins and we have also seen some close ones, referring to the polls we monitor. This year, it's closer to a landslide than not. Just about all of the polls favor McCreery by a margin of about 65% to 35%.
In fact, the only measurement of popularity that we found to favor Lauren Alaina was the Twitter measurement we showed you last week. That favors Alaina significantly, based on how many tweets per hour each name receives. Alaina is getting 250 to McCreery's 180. Unfortunately, that method didn't work out too well for us last week. So, we won't let that factor into our prediction.
Let's take a quick look at some of the more popular prediction sites.
Dial Idol - Predicts Scotty McCreery
Votefair.org - As predicted weeks ago in Votes for Scotty McCreery from Country-music fans below, Scotty McCreery is certain to win.
Rasmussen Poll - A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 40% of "American Idol" viewers believe McCreery should win the singing competition over 16-year-old Lauren Alaina. Twenty-six percent (26%) think Alaina should win the title. Thirty-four percent (34%) are undecided
Google Search Popularity - More searches for McCreery (chart below)
There you have it. When you handicap an event, be it a sporting event, or in this case, a reality TV show, you gather as much information as possible from as many different sources as possible, and you then make an educated guess, using that information.
In this case, the odds and the polls, both right now and over the course of the entire season, favor Scotty McCreery to win. Our methods have correctly picked the winner of every single American Idol finale correctly, with the exception of the year Adam Lambert lost. That year, there was a huge voting controversy.
We predicted McCreery back in April. We so no reason to sway from that prediction. The American Idol show tried desperately to narrow that gap last night. We don't think it was enough. Our prediction stands.
Season 10 Predicted winner - Scotty McCreery