American Idol Predictions
Welcome back American Idol fans. In the past we have started our weekly American Idol predictions much earlier than we are this year. The main reason for that is that there are fewer sportsbooks posting odds on the earlier rounds of American Idol. Specifically elimination odds. Our strong point has always been the finals where we have only missed picking the winner one time (Adam Lambert).
This year, while there have been some surprises, it once again looks as though there are only a couple of contestants with a legitimate shot to win. One sportsbook to check for current odds to win American Idol Season 11 would be Bovada Sportsbook.
Ok, the votes are in and we await the winner. This looks to be one of the most difficult finales to predict in all the years we have been doing this for several reasons. First, we apologize for not being active with our week to week elimination predictions this year. Betting on American Idol, this year, has not been as popular as in past years, for many reasons. As a result, we have had to direct our time and energy to more traditional forms of sportsbetting, such as baseball and basketball. That being said, we still watched the show and have also done our usual research, so, here goes.
First, a personal opinion. Who does yours truly think is the better artist? (Artist being the key word here). Phillip Phillips would get my vote. If I was going to buy a record, or pay to see a performance by either of these two, it would be Phillips hands down. Considering most of the people who actually take the time to officially vote are likely in the younger age groups, I would think that would give Phillips an edge. Do young people, male of female, want to sit through a couple hours of a 16 year old girl singing Whitney Houston tunes? Or would they rather listen to something current and original?
Phillips also has an edge based on the two most popular voting groups, the southern vote and the teenage girl vote. Both have helped propel past winners over the hump. There's a lot of chatter about the "white guy with guitar" popularity. The last female winner was Jordin Sparks on 2007. The next 4 winners were David Cook, Kris Allen, Lee Dewyze and Scotty Mccreery. All pulled in the southern vote and the teeny bopper vote and Phillip Phillips would seem to fit right in.
Social media has been a great indicator over the years. By measuring the popularity of contestants on twitter, facebook and Google searches, you could get a pretty good idea of who the winner was likely to be. However, there's a major problem with that angle this year. Jessica Sanchez would appear to have a huge lead based on social media. Her twitter followers and facebook "likes" have sky rocketed. But she is INSANELY popular in the Philippines and that is having a huge impact on her social media popularity. (official Idol votes can only be from the USA)
Google gives you the option of filtering those results. When you use only search data from the USA, Phillips holds a small edge. One site we visit, votefair.org, has been removing votes from the Philippines yet still shows Jessica Sanchez as the most popular contestant and has had her in the lead for the entire season. In fact, most online polls we have seen, some with only a few hundred votes, one with 11,000, favor Sanchez. The poll with 11,000 votes actually favored Sanchez by close to 70%. These small online polls have done a great job in past years of predicting the winners, however they may be influenced by a large audience that can't actually vote for the winner.
The oddsmakers and bettors are favoring Phillips. Betfair, the popular European betting exchange still had Phillips as the overwhelming favorite as of this morning with Sanchez a 3/1 underdog.
Lastly, you have the sympathy vote. Phillips has been sick for most of the show. Kidney stones I believe. He is holding off on the surgery, against his Doctors wishes, until after the finale. We all love to see a competitor play through the pain.
So who will it be? Will Philippines voters circumvent the Idol system and crown Sanchez? Will Phillips and his kidney stones pull through? Will those risking actual money on the outcome at sportsbooks and betting exchanges prove to be right in making Phillips the prohibitive favorite?