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American Idol Predictions
Season
8
UPDATE -The
New York Times reports that AT&T may have
influenced the outcome of
American Idol by providing free
text-messaging services at parties organized
by fans of Kris Allen, who won the
competition last week. Representatives of
AT&T, a corporate sponsor of the show,
reportedly taught Allen fans how to
"power text" at the parties, allowing them
to send multiple messages with a
push of a button. Questions remain as to
whether power texting violates
American Idol voting rules.
5/20
Here we go folks. Looking to
keep our perfect record of picking American
Idol winners intact. We must admit, of all
the years we have been doing this, this
finale is the most difficult to predict. We
are confident in our prediction however. On
to the reasons why Adam Lambert will win
American Idol tonight.
As those that follow our
predictions know by now, we use a variety of
methods to arrive at our conclusions. We
monitor tons of public opinion polls. We
monitor many betting sites. We monitor Dial
Idol and countless other sites related to
the show. Lastly, we watch the show and
naturally form our own opinions based on
what we observe.
Our goal is different than
many of the other sites that attempt to
predict the Idol results. Ultimately, we are
looking to find profitable wagering
opportunities as a result of our research.
Thus far, we have been very successful in
that department, making a profit from this
show each and every year betting has been
available.
Let's start first with
public opinion polls, of which there are
many. Some are large with thousands of votes
cast, some are small with just a couple
hundred votes cast. Both serve to give us a
sampling of the general publics opinions.
There are polls, for example, run by AOL,
People Magazine, TV guide, etc. There are
polls run by small newspapers and there are
polls run by small websites. Some of these
polls, are close. Very close. While other
polls favor Adam Lambert by a margin of 55%
up to 60%. Even the ones that are close,
still favor Lambert by a small margin. No
polls we monitor favor Kris Allen to win.
That, in itself, is significant.
Next we have the betting
odds. When people bet on something, they are
casting their votes with their money. So,
monitoring the betting markets is simply
like monitoring more polls. Heading into
last nights show, Adam Lambert was a 3-1
favorite and the odds didn't budge. Again,
very significant. After last nights show, we
saw a flurry of action, in which the odds
dropped drastically, in some instances
favoring Kris Allen. But as time has passed,
and the bettors have had more time to do
their research (not unlike what we do) we
have seen the odds flow back towards making
Adam Lambert a solid favorite.
When we take the major
sportsbooks, and average their odds, the
average betting line is Adam Lambert -145.
Translated into percentages, based on people
casting their votes with money, Adam Lambert
has a 60% chance of winning. That would be
right in line with the majority of the
public opinion polls we monitor that have
Lambert at 55-60%.
If there is a wild card
here, it would be two popular sites, Vote
for the Worst, and Dial Idol. Vote for the
Worst encouraged it's followers to vote for
Kris Allen, while Dial Idol, which measures
the busy signals of people voting using
their software, has given a slight edge to
Kris Allen, but ultimately says it's too
close to call. Note also that Dial Idol has
been off this year, and their site, and the
voting results, weren't accessible last
night, at least between the hours of 9 pm
and 1 am est.
Another method we use, is to
monitor search engine activity.
Specifically, who has more searches for
their name at Google. Logic would tell us
that the contestant that has more searches
for their name, is more popular. Google also
allows you to break this information down
based on geographical location. You can view
the entire world for example, or you can
narrow it down to the United States. You can
also view cities within the United States.
Bottom line? Adam Lambert is
much more popular than Kris Allen based on
the number of searches being done for their
names. As a matter of fact, it's not even
close. Whether you look at searches
worldwide, or just in the States, Lambert is
more popular by a very wide margin.
Geographically, Kris Allen only received
more searches for his name in one location
in the entire world..........that would be
the state of Arkansas, where he is from.
Lastly, we have our own
opinion of the contestants. When I say we, I
refer to, yours truly, the author of this
Idol page, and a few friends who are equally
as interested, both from a betting
standpoint, and a musical standpoint. The
feeling here is, Adam Lambert is simply the
better singer and all around entertainer.
Kris Allen will possibly be forgotten once
the show is over. Adam Lambert will be in
the spotlight for years to come.
If Adam Lambert doesn't win,
the credibility of American Idol will be
damaged beyond repair. If he doesn't win,
the show will be reduced to nothing more
than a popularity contest. A popularity
contest based on peoples personal beliefs
concerning religion, sexual orientation,
looks and any number of other factors that
go into decisions as to whether or not they
like a person, or not.
If the show is based on
singing ability and overall talent, Adam
Lambert should win going away. Going
strictly on that alone, it shouldn't be
close. As Simon Cowell said, Lambert is the
best contestant the show has ever had, hands
down. His vocal range is on par, or better,
than some of the biggest names to ever grace
a stage. Names like Robert Plant and Freddy
Mercury come to mind. Vocally, he's that
good.
So there you have it. Our
exhaustive research, monitoring public
opinions polls, betting markets, websites
devoted to American Idol as well as our own
personal opinions, suggest that Adam Lambert
will win American Idol tonight. In the
world of wagering, there is no such thing as
a sure thing. But betting on American Idol
is unique in that, you are betting on
something that has already taken place,
unlike say, a football or basketball game.
With the price still anywhere from -140 to
-145 as of this writing at 3 pm est this
afternoon, we'd still recommend Adam Lambert
as a good bet. But you better hurry, these
odds will rise as the afternoon goes on.
Good Luck if you bet.
Enjoy the show, and we'll see you next
year!!!
BET ON ON AMERICAN IDOL AT SPORTSBOOK.COM
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