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LAS VEGAS 400 - UAW-Dodge 400
ODDS - PREDICTIONS - 3/2/08
The Las Vegas 400 is a race where starting position is not as important as it is at other tracks. Roughly 10% of winners have come from the top 5 starting positions with roughly 35% of the winners coming from the top 10 slots. That's significant, when compared to other races/tracks where the winners come from the top 10 slots 60% of the time or more. So, when handicapping this race, we place less significance on starting position.
You can't mention Las Vegas 400 predictions, without mentioning Jimmy Johnson. All he's done is won the last 3 at this track and looks to become the 1st driver since 1998 to win the same race 4 consecutive times. He is listed anywhere from 5/1 to 7/1 to win this race.
Often times a manufacturer seems to own certain tracks. Not the case in Vegas as Fords have won 5 of the last 10, while Chevy's have won 4. Perhaps we can toss out Dodge here in Vegas, as a Dodge has only won 1 of the last 10 here.
Drivers to win this race multiple times over the last 10 races, other than Johnson, include Matt Kenseth, who won twice, and Jeff Burton who also won twice. Kenseth is 10/1 to win while Burton is listed at 25/1. Perhaps some value there.
Other drivers with some success in Vegas - Jeff Gordon, who finished 2nd last year, 5th in 2006, and 4th in 2005. Gordon is listed at 6/1 odds. Mark Martin finished 5th last year, 6th in 2006 and 5th in 2004. Martin is listed at 30/1 and worth a small play.
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The NASCAR wagers we like to make are the match ups. You'll have to check back with us on Race day for those picks, which in this case, is Sunday, as most sportsbooks will not have the match ups posted until then. You can check back Saturday Night to see if we have anything posted as some books will have early match ups posted.
We'll also make wagers on drivers to finish in the top 3, but tend to only make very small wagers on drivers to win outright. We may make very small plays on Burton at 25/1, Martin at 30/1 and Kenseth at 10/1.
Be sure to check back for our picks on the day of the race right here on this page. In the meantime, here are the current odds to win the Las Vegas 400. Also, be sure to bookmark our NASCAR PICKS page here on Bettorsworld as we'll have you covered for each and every race this season.
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3/2/08 UAW-DODGE 400 PICKS
These Match Ups can be found at Sportsbook.com Jimmy Johnson -115 over Jeff Gordon - Johnson has won the last 3 races here in Vegas and has finished ahead of Gordon 3 out of the last 4 races at any track. The price is right here. Matt Kenseth +120 over Carl Edwards - Edwards is on everyones hot list after winning last week, however, Kenseth has beaten Edwards at this track 3 straight times and won the race in 2004 and finished 2nd in 2006. Not bad eh? There's some value here with Kenseth as an underdog. Hamlin +135 over Dale Earnhardt Jr - Hamlin edged out Jr last 2 times here in Vegas and is already off to a better start than Jr this year. Jr's last 4 races, going back to last year, have seen finishes of 40, 9, 36 and 43. Mark Martin +105 over Casey Mears - Martin has beaten Mears 3 of the last 4 tries here in Vegas and both times out this year. Value with the underdog here. Jeff Gordon -125 over Carl Edwards - Edwards has been the better driver in 2008's first two races however Gordon has beaten Edwards 3 straight here in Vegas. Ryan Newman +125 over Jeff Burton - Newman has finished ahead of Burton both times out this year and each driver has won 2 of the last 4 against the other in Vegas. Mark Martin -150 over Reed Sorenson - Don't like to lay -150 on anything but we'll do it here. Martin has blown Sorenson away last 2 times on this track finishing 5th and 6th to Sorenson's 31 and 40. These Match Ups can be found at Sportsbook.com
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Jimmie Johnson +500
Jeff Gordon +600
Matt Kenseth +1000
Carl Edwards +1000
Tony Stewart +1000
Kyle Busch +1100
Denny Hamlin +1200
Dale Earnhardt Jr+1300
Kurt Busch +1500
Greg Biffle +1500
Ryan Newman +2000
Kasey Kahne +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Kevin Harvick +2500
Jeff Burton +2500
Casey Mears +2500
Mark Martin +3000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Clint Bowyer +3000
Reed Sorrenson +4000
Juan Montoya +4000
Field +2500
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